This is one of those where I simply have to play the first game of the FBS season even if I'm kinda on the fence about the number. It does help that TCU's top returning wideout in Jordan Dwyer is out with a foot injury. I sorta still want TCU to win by 50 because Bill Belichick irks me a ton even if he clearly has off-field game.
I don't like the direction of the UNC program under Bill Belichick, whose team went 4-8 last season, looking inept in multiple games. There is no indication that the talent has improved significantly, and the team will be without defensive coordinator Steve Belichick. Meanwhile TCU is a much more stable program under Sonny Dykes, who is 36-17 in four seasons in Fort Worth and has won nine games in each of the last two seasons. This year's offense will have a new coordinator, Gordon Sammis, who guided UConn to the 15th best scoring offense in the country last year. Transfer quarterback Jaden Craig of Harvard (5,299 yards, 48 touchdowns, 10 interceptions the last two seasons) gives TCU a smart, steady hand behind center.
TCU and North Carolina kick things off in Ireland on Saturday, each with new QBs. North Carolina starts Wisconsin transfer Billy Edwards. Edwards also played at Maryland and Wake Forest, going 4-7 in his 11 total starts. TCU brings in Jaden Craig from Harvard. UNC's new OC Bobby Petrino inherits an offense that was 120th in scoring, 129th in yards, and 120th in rushing last season. Rainy, cold weather is expected and the last 3 games in Ireland all totaled 45.
When I studied QB Jaden Craig at Harvard, he was one of the best QBs in the FCS. He's now the starting QB at TCU and gives them a rushing element that they didn't have under last year's QB Josh Hoover. We still don't know what to expect offensively from North Carolina. While defensively they will provide a challenge at the line of scrimmage, over the course of a game I don't believe their offense will be able to play complimentary football enough to cover this spread.
Wisconsin transfer Billy Edwards Jr was named the starter Tuesday in Bobby Petrino's new UNC offense, and all I ask of the senior is that he works on not turning the ball over. It may sound like a simple task, but the QB position at North Carolina turned the ball over too much last season. If they actually score on offense, that will be a bonus, and Bill Belichick's defense will handle the rest. The defense isn't the problem; it should be the star of the team. They just need the offense to stay patient and, once in a while, make some noise with a couple of scores. I'm betting Belichick slows the game down in Ireland and stays close with the chance to win.
