Indiana is not a team that beats itself. The Hoosiers lead the country in turnover margin (1.40 per game) and rank second in penalty yards per game (26.9). Meanwhile, the Hurricanes can be their own worst enemy. They average 57.1 penalty yards per game (84th in the nation) and are coming off a 10-penalty game in the CFP semifinal. And that doesn't include drops, turnovers and game management issues that we've seen with coach Mario Cristobal's squad. Miami needs to play a clean game against a disciplined Indiana team, and I don't know if the Hurricanes are capable of that. In addition, Miami's ailing cornerbacks looked vulnerable against the Rebels, and I fully expect Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza to take advantage if they're not healthy.
When these teams met in October, Oregon held the Hoosiers to their co-lowest yardage total (326) of the season, and Indiana still won by 10. That game also was in Eugene. The Hoosiers are a team that doesn't beat itself and has few, if any, weaknesses. Meanwhile running back depth could be an issue for the Ducks. Leading rusher Noah Whittington is listed as questionable, and backup Jordon Davison is out. Oregon rushed for just 81 yards in the first meeting. Now that this line has dipped to -3 from -4, I'll gladly take Indiana.
When these teams met on Oct. 18 in Athens, Ole Miss played a whale of a game and still lost by eight. Georgia scored on each of its first eight drives before taking a knee to run out the clock on its last drive. A lot has happened since then. The Rebels famously lost their coach, Lane Kiffin, to LSU, and I think that his absence will play a bigger factor in the Sugar Bowl than it did during the first round game against Tulane. Meanwhile the Bulldogs defense has really locked down since that Ole Miss matchup, allowing 11.7 points per game. Georgia has the edge in coaching and in the trenches and is playing its best ball of the season.
I realize the Ducks' haven't had the toughest schedule in the country, but it has been much tougher than what the Red Raiders have faced. I'm sorry, but two blowout wins over highly overrated BYU and another win over Utah aren't enough to convince me Texas Tech is better than Oregon. I also like that the Ducks already have played in the playoffs this season, while the Red Raiders have been sitting since the Big 12 Championship Game. Going back to last season, the teams with a bye in the CFP are 0-5. Oregon covers.
Now that this line is Ohio State -7.5 (-110), I have to take a shot. The Buckeyes are giving up just 8.2 points per game this season, which is tied with the 2011 Alabama defense for the best since at least 1995. I love the matchup of Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia against mistake-prone Miami quarterback Carson Beck. Meanwhile, I trust that Buckeyes coach Ryan Day has addressed the offense's pass protection issues over the team's extended break since the Big Ten Championship Game. I don't expect Ohio State will need to score a ton of points to cover.
The Longhorns defense will be under an interim play caller as Pete Kwiatkowski was fired after the season. Maybe more importantly the unit will be without six starters who opted out, including linebacker Anthony Hill, safety Michael Taaffe and cornerback Malik Muhammad. Meanwhile defensive ends Derrick Moore and Jaishawn Barham have opted out for the Wolverines. If Michigan can't generate a pass rush, Arch Manning could be in store for a big day. Give me the Over.
Warning: I've been wrong on Oklahoma all season. I keep fading the Sooners because of their pop gun offense, but their elite defense keeps bailing them out. In their narrow 23-21 win over Alabama one month ago, they were outgained 406 yards to 212 but turned three Crimson Tide turnovers into 17 points. But can Oklahoma's defense do it again on Friday? I'm going to say no. I realize that Alabama's offense failed to move the ball in the SEC Championship Game, but all it needs to do on Friday is not turn the ball over because the Tide defense should give the offense opportunities. Give me the plus-money on Alabama in what's a coin-flip game.
Sure, the Aggies have feasted on the bottom half of the SEC. And sure they beat Notre Dame before the Irish got rolling. But A&M is a confident team as it visits Austin. The Aggies offense is a bad matchup for a Longhorns defense that has given up 35.3 points per game over the last four games because of injuries and issues on the back end. Meanwhile the A&M defense ranks second in the country in sacks per game (3.55). That doesn't bode well for the Texas offensive line, which has had major issues this season (though has played better recently, Georgia notwithstanding).
The Longhorns defense has struggled on the back end over the last four games, giving up 38, 31, 35 and 37 points over the last four games. On Friday that defense will be missing linebacker Ty'Anthony Smith (targeting) for the first half and playing with an injured Anthony Hill (hand). That's bad news against an A&M offense that is built to take advantage of open space behind the linebackers. Meanwhile Arch Manning is finally getting some protection, and the Longhorns offense is playing its best ball of the season (35.3 points per game over the last four games). This feels like a 30-27 or 33-30 game.
Toledo is a perfect 5-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 40.0 points per game. Conversely, Ball State is 0-5 on the road, losing by 26.4 points. The Rockets boast the No. 1 offense and defense in the MAC, while the Cardinals are 12th (out of 13) in offense and 10th in defense. I realize I'm not getting the best number, but it may not matter.
Warning: I haven't had a good read on Oklahoma this season. But I feel strongly that the Alabama defense is coming off its best game of the year, giving up just three field goals to LSU. The Tide face a Sooners offense that ranks 64th in the country in points per game (28.9) and 77th in yards per game (373.7). Meanwhile, according to reports, the Oklahoma defense is not likely to have its best player, R Mason Thomas. That doesn't bode well against the Tide passing game and quarterback Ty Simpson, who has thrown 21 touchdowns against only one interception this year.
USC welcomes another Big Ten team from the midwest to the Coliseum, and the Trojans have excelled in those situations this season. They have clobbered Michigan State (45-31), Michigan (31-13) and Northwestern (38-17) in L.A. this year. If the Hawkeyes fall behind early, this game could have a similar result. Two units on USC.
I realize the Aggies have had tackling issues against the run. But they have averaged 45.0 points offensively in three road games this season, and their ability to put points on the board will force Missouri to put the ball in the hands of freshman quarterback Matt Zollers, who will be making his first college start. That's bad news against a defense that's leading the country in sacks per game (4.00). A&M covers.
The Aggies may be the best team in the SEC, and they've already won on the road in a hostile atmosphere, at Notre Dame. I realize the Texas A&M defense couldn't get a stop last week against Arkansas, but LSU doesn't have near the offense as the Razorbacks. On the other side of the ball, the Aggies have a balanced offense that can both run the rock behind Rueben Owens and quarterback Marcel Reed and burn opponents through the air with receivers Mario Craver and KC Concepcion. Give me two units on A&M.
The Longhorns are Under bettors' best friend. The offense has massive issues blocking, running and passing, while the defense is one of the best in the country (11.3 points per game allowed). Meanwhile the Bulldogs have been solid defensively at home this season, giving up just 16.0 points per game. In addition, they have been excellent in punt coverage (18th in the country), which will be key since Texas punt returner Ryan Niblett has scored a touchdown and set up 10 other points over the last two games. This should be a low-scoring defensive struggle, along the lines of 16-13, with one team likely trying to run out the clock. Two units on the Under.