ANALYSIS: Aaron Donald vs. the Bengals’ O-line is an epic mismatch, but know what hasn’t been a mismatch this season? The Bengals against … anybody. Even when they lose they keep it close, and as of Feb. 2 they’re getting 4.5 points. Consider this: The Bengals had nine games against playoff teams (including three in the postseason) and if they had been 4.5-point ‘dogs in each, they would’ve gone 9-0 ATS. The Rams have had 10 games vs. playoff teams and if they had been 4.5-point favorites in each, they would’ve gone 3-7 ATS (they actually went 4-6 ATS). The Rams traded for an All-Star team and they’re facing a bad O-line, but ultimately I trust Joe Burrow to brush himself off and keep Cincy in it more than I trust the Rams’ stable of stars, who may already be planning the best L.A. parade route. Take the points.

ANALYSIS: The Niners have beaten the Rams six straight times, so why is L.A. favored by more than a field goal? The idea that it's hard to beat a team three times in one season is not backed by data: NFL teams looking for a three-game sweep in the playoffs have gone 14-8. A majority of both tickets and money are on the Rams at -3.5, and that line that hasn't budged all week. But there's value in backing Kyle Shanahan (7-3 all-time vs. Sean McVay) and a good Niners defense against an L.A. All-Star team that's prone to turnovers, nearly blowing it last week even after Bucs injuries seemed to set everything up in the Rams' favor. Grab the points with the team that's had the upper hand in this rivalry since 2018.

ANALYSIS: Taking Matthew Stafford over Tom Brady in a playoff game? It certainly doesn't feel right, but nobody's invincible, especially when they're missing a Pro Bowl right tackle. Maybe Brady -- at age 44, without Tristan Wirfs and with Ryan Jensen on a gimpy ankle -- will be able to avoid Aaron Donald and Von Miller and make more postseason magic. But I'll go with the team that doesn't have a ton of injury issues, already proved it can beat the Bucs this season and is getting points. Grab the 3.

ANALYSIS: The Cowboys have the NFL's best ATS record at 13-4 and enter the playoffs having won five of six. But unless you're counting last week's beatdown of the Eagles' backups, Dallas hasn't defeated a playoff team since Week 6 (an OT win over the Pats), and the only other playoff team it beat all season was Philly. Only seven teams have allowed more yards per carry this season than the Cowboys, and now they're facing a 49ers squad that can run it and has heated up considerably down the stretch. Grab the points.

ANALYSIS: Aaron Rodgers is starting, but how much will he play? The Packers have the top seed wrapped up so probably not too much, and the same goes for a lot of Green Bay's key players. Dan Campbell certainly seems like the type of coach who'll want to end on a high note, and with Jared Goff likely back, look for the Lions to improve their 10-6 ATS record. Grab the points.