Brett's Past Picks
The Broncos have won four straight after a 1-5 start mainly because of turnovers. Denver has gotten 10 more of them than their opponents in their last three games, but that's a stat that tends to depend on luck and isn't sustainable. The Browns bring the NFL's No. 1 'D' to Denver and will look to mostly run on a Broncos defense that still can't stop it. Of Denver's five wins, four have been by three points or less, and we're getting points here. Grab them.
The Bills fired their OC but the real problem is that Buffalo's defense ranks 31st in DVOA the past six weeks. How much difference will Joe Brady make, especially against a strong Jets defense that knows how to play Buffalo? The Jets have won two of the past three meetings, and now they're getting more that a TD against Josh Allen, who'll be very aware of his recent turnover troubles and likely more conservative. Grab the points.
Is Tommy DeVito 16.5 points worse than Tyrod Taylor? You could argue that's what's being said with this line, which has the Giants getting 9.5 points less than a month after they beat Washington by 7 with their backup QB. DeVito was bad the last two weeks, but in a divisional game against a Commanders team the Giants haven't lost to since January 2022 -- and one that recently had a fire sale -- N.Y. isn't likely to get blown out. Grab the points.
The Jags couldn't have looked much worse than they did last week, which should have them extra motivated against an overmatched divisional opponent. Will Levis has 0 TDs and 2 INTs since his amazing rookie debut, and has completed less than 57% of his passes the past two weeks. If Tennessee turns to Derrick Henry, the Jags allow the fifth fewest rushing yards per game. Look for Trevor Lawrence to have a big day as the Jags cover the number.
The Jaguars have only lost two games since October 2022 to teams not named the Chiefs, yet they're 3-point home 'dogs. The Niners have the stars and clout, but despite famously blowing out Dallas, they've gone 2-3 vs. teams with a winning record. Have defenses figured out Brock Purdy? Trust Doug Pederson and grab the points at home.
We've got one team with a sizable QB downgrade for this game, and the other with what I believe is a QB upgrade. The Falcons should've gone to Taylor Heinicke much earlier, and he should prove better than Desmond Ridder here, even without Drake London to throw to. The Vikings have no run game, no Kirk Cousins, an average 'D' at best ... it's difficult to see what they bring to the table. Lay the points.
No team has been more impressive so far this season than the Dolphins, but their five wins came over teams that are a combined 5-24. The one team currently above .500 that they faced beat them. The Eagles have somewhat sleepwalked to a 5-1 start, but coming off their first loss and facing a serious threat at home in prime time, look for Philly to wake up and look more like last season. Lay the points.
The Lions are 5-1 ATS and Jared Goff, normally a QB to back indoors and fade outside, already has three outdoor wins under his belt this season. However, after perfect weather in those games, here we've got expected strong winds and even a chance (25%) of rain. No David Montgomery means Detroit must lean on a not-100% Jahmyr Gibbs. Lay the points.
The Cowboys are coming off a bad loss, but that doesn't mean they can't still be overrated. Their three wins were over the Pats and the two N.Y. teams (a combined 5-13). We're now six weeks into Mike McCarthy calling their plays, while Kellen Moore's calling them for the Chargers -- sending those offenses in opposite directions. L.A. gets Austin Ekeler back, and their defensive numbers are skewed after facing the Dolphins and the Vikings with Justin Jefferson in their first four games. Grab the points here.
C.J. Stroud has been even better than anticipated, but the fact he still hasn’t thrown an interception hasn’t been all due to great play — the rookie could’ve been picked a few times last week, but had luck and slippery Falcons fingers on his side. The law of averages says that won't continue, and when's a more likely week for Stroud to make some rookie plays than against a dominating Saints defense? Ride with the stronger team in a game with a small spread.
Grabbing the points in any AFC North matchup is normally advisable, but I'm going to keep backing this Browns defense. The Ravens, who continue to be banged-up at multiple positions, couldn't score 20 at home last week in a loss to the Colts, and now they face Jim Schwartz's game-wrecking 'D' in Cleveland. Lay the points.
Sean McVay has the baby Rams much feistier than expected. The QB matchup here is Matthew Stafford vs. a rookie with 1 TD pass in his NFL career. The coaching matchup here is Sean McVay vs. a rookie head coach whose two career wins came over the depleted Texans and depleted Ravens. Grab the point.
If Joe Burrow sits, we get free points before the line moves. If he plays, we fade a banged-up Burrow who looked bad the first two weeks. Regardless, the Rams are feisty, winning by 17 in Seattle in Week 1 as they sit 2-0 ATS. Grab the points here.
The Browns defense has yet to allow an opposing offense inside its 30-yard line. You can make a case it's one of the three best defenses in the league, and now they get Ryan Tannehill behind a bad O-line. Mike Vrabel is normally great to take as a dog, but I think the Browns rally here in the aftermath of losing Nick Chubb. Lay the points.
Chalk up the Bengals' embarrassing Week 1 loss to Joe Burrow starting slow and a Browns defense that's no joke. Expect a Cincy bounce-back at home in Week 2. With four Ravens starters out (Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum off the O-line, Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Williams in the defensive backfield) the edge goes to the talented Bengals. Lay the field goal.