ANALYSIS: Taking Matthew Stafford over Tom Brady in a playoff game? It certainly doesn't feel right, but nobody's invincible, especially when they're missing a Pro Bowl right tackle. Maybe Brady -- at age 44, without Tristan Wirfs and with Ryan Jensen on a gimpy ankle -- will be able to avoid Aaron Donald and Von Miller and make more postseason magic. But I'll go with the team that doesn't have a ton of injury issues, already proved it can beat the Bucs this season and is getting points. Grab the 3.

ANALYSIS: The Cowboys have the NFL's best ATS record at 13-4 and enter the playoffs having won five of six. But unless you're counting last week's beatdown of the Eagles' backups, Dallas hasn't defeated a playoff team since Week 6 (an OT win over the Pats), and the only other playoff team it beat all season was Philly. Only seven teams have allowed more yards per carry this season than the Cowboys, and now they're facing a 49ers squad that can run it and has heated up considerably down the stretch. Grab the points.

ANALYSIS: Aaron Rodgers is starting, but how much will he play? The Packers have the top seed wrapped up so probably not too much, and the same goes for a lot of Green Bay's key players. Dan Campbell certainly seems like the type of coach who'll want to end on a high note, and with Jared Goff likely back, look for the Lions to improve their 10-6 ATS record. Grab the points.

ANALYSIS: Joe Burrow humiliated the Ravens last week and it'll likely take another big Burrow day to hang with a Chiefs team that's won eight straight. But here's the thing: K.C.'s defense is not the Ravens. The Chiefs have allowed more than 17 points just once since Week 7. The Bengals may be a first-place team, but none of their wins this season came over a team currently in first, and it's unlikely to happen here. Lay the points.

ANALYSIS: The Lions are tied for the third-best ATS record in the league (10-5) despite having just two wins this season, but there is a time to fade them and that time is when the public comes in heavy on Detroit's side (see: 44-6 loss to Eagles). This week's setup looks very similar to that one from Week 8, with about 75% of the bets on the Lions. A public 'dog that's likely to be starting Tim Boyle at QB? Time to zag and lay the points.