B365 @ -115. Fading a star player in a crucial playoff game is akin to playing with fire, but Damian Lillard does not seem 100% healthy coming off his prolonged absence with blood clot issues. He’s only been able to muster 24 and 15 PRA in his two games thus far, and he’s struggled against Andrew Nembhard’s coverage (3/12 shooting). He could very well turn it around, but I don’t see that happening in Game 4. Would bet this down to under 29.5 PRA, as I have him at 27.

Can the Bucks count on Gary Trent Jr. to go nuts again in Game 4? He scored 37 points, making nine of 12 from deep, with four steals in Game 3. That eased the burden on Giannis Antetokounmpo, but I can't see that happening again. The Pacers are deeper and more balanced. Take the points.

The Bucks finally got on the board in this series with a win in Game 3. They can thank Gary Trent Jr., who scored 37 points on 11-for-16 shooting from the field. He was 9-for-12 from behind the arc. Don’t expect him to repeat that performance. Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner also shot a combined 6-for-20 from the field in the game, another feat that I don’t think will be duplicated. I could see this coming down to the final minute of the game and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pacers won outright.

Pascal Siakam scored 28 points despite playing just 31 minutes with the Pacers losing big in Game 3. He has scored at least 24 points in all three games of this series against the Bucks. In four regular season games against the Bucks, Siakam scored 25, 20, 25 and 26 points. As the main running mate for Tyrese Haliburton, Siakam has an excellent opportunity to score in bunches again.

Pacers got humbled in Game 3, which they probably needed. But this does not look like a great match-up for the Bucks to me the longer we go. Pacers have more dependable depth and are the more balanced team in terms of division of labor scoring and between defense and offense. Bucks will try to intimidate them again at home but Pacers won this series a year ago and have a 59.5 TS% in the series. They can get to the rim and they will shoot the ball better in Game 4. Love the way they are spreading the ball around and they are the better defensive team as well. They can expose Dame Lillard, Brook Lopez and Kyle Kuzma defensively.