The under trend in the first round of the playoffs seems to have abated although the Lakers and T-Wolves slowed to a crawl in the 4th Q last night. Indeed, overs are on a 9-4 run as the first round draws to a close after the unders dominated early. It took this series until Game Five to get over but it did so easily in Tuesday's 131-115 Nuggets cruise at Denver. Russell Westbrook's availability in Game Five gave Denver the scoring punch and jolt it needed from tis bench that was absent in Games 3 & 4. meanwhile, the Clips. For LA, expect more from James Harden, whose scoring has dropped the past two games, down to 11 points in Game 5. Play Nuggets-Clippers Over

In game five the Denver Nuggets had so much success offensively that they got by with Nikola Jokic having an off game. The thirteen points he scored were the second fewest from Jokic since mid January. With the surging offense of Denver, the Clippers will be forced to make full team adjustments in particular on Jamal Murray. Look for Jokic to bounce back in the points department and clear his points prop tonight.

This number is already 20.5 at most books, so -128 at 19.5 presents value. Powell has been much better at home during this series, scoring 20 and 22 points in his two home games, compared to 13 or less in all three games on the road. While Kawhi Leonard’s consistent presence has dipped Powell’s volume slightly, he still averaged 25 Pts+Rebs during the regular season. Our model projects him at 21.6 in this home matchup, and we like the bounce-back spot.

This is a combination of faith in Kawhi+Zubac to put up points at the outset and in the Nuggets (specifically Jokic) figuring out the Clippers' defense based on their increase in scoring from 83 in Game 3, 101 in Game 4 and 131 in Game 5. If Jamal Murray stays hot then this should easily hit but at the very worst, he’ll get a ton of attention from the Clippers defense, which should leave others open. That's why Michael Porter Jr and Aaron Gordon are 9-17 combined from 3pt range the last 2 games. The Nuggets shot terribly in Games 3 and 4 in LA from 3pt range (31%) and I think they are due to shoot at least 37% for one of the games.

The model leans LAC for the full-game spread because the Clippers were so dominant at home with a 29-14 ATS record (20-23 on road) and a +10 point differential (0 pt diff on road) and a super strong +6% 3pt differential. But I just don’t trust James Harden for a full game, but I can definitely trust Kawhi Leonard and Ivica Zubac to come out fast. And if Harden isn’t hitting his shots, they have Norman Powell (7 for 16 from 3pt range in LA vs 5-15 at DEN) playing much better at home and Bogdan Bogdanovic waking up from the dead (2 points total in Games 1 to 3, 25 pts in Games 4 and 5).

Christian Braun averaged 5.2 rebounds over 34 minutes per game during the regular season. The Nuggets have basically no bench outside of Russell Westbrook, which has resulted in Braun averaging 39 minutes per game in this series. With him playing more, he has grabbed at least six rebounds in four straight games. In Game 5, he had 12 rebounds. At plus odds, I think this is well worth the risk.

FanDuel. Hopping on this Aaron Gordon line early, as I believe it to be a bucket lower than it should be. Gordon has cleared this line in each of the series’ five games. With Michael Porter Jr. and Christian Braun failing to find their footing, Gordon has been able to find some easy looks around the basket, against the smaller Clippers forwards.

The last 10 times these teams have met, the Nuggets have lost by this margin just one time. The Clippers have also displayed throughout this series a proclivity for playing with their food, not being able to maintain momentum or put the Nuggets away when they had the chance. Denver has lost by more than 7 points in 3 of their last 12 playoff meetings vs the Clippers and 3 of last 20 in the regular season. Doesn't happen that often and I don't think it happens again here. The non-Zubacs minutes have become a huge problem for the Clippers. Kawhi has not taken this series over nearly to the extent I expected and playoff James Harden showed up last game. Points, please.

Aaron Gordon has eclipsed this line in every playoff game this season and has seen his usage spike, in addition to his playing time. Gordon is playing upwards of 40 minutes and stuffs the stat sheet. I would make this line 21.5 and would play this for a full unit at 18.5.