I've played the under 85.5 (-108) and will be playing the under 86.5 on exchanges. Only one book available in this tool. My simulations have BYU at 81.3 in this matchup against Bama.
My simulations have Alabama favored by 8.5 against St. Mary's, a team that lacks depth and strength on the offensive end.
My Sims bring the number closer to -7 in this game for Tennessee. It’s a very comfortable (and slow) tempo, where the Vols can play their physical style and win with defense.
Excellent season for UCSD, but I prefer fading them at their peak market value in a tournament setting. I have Michigan winning 62% of simulations, which implies we should be paying -163 for this moneyline, not -140.
Fading the big number on Florida State's team total as a slight home underdog. I like the full-game Under, with a strong lean toward UNC, but ultimately, I'm just looking to bet against Florida State scoring 78+ points here.
Huge game for both teams at the top of the Big Ten. Purdue looks to avoid losing three consecutive games against strong opponents. I expect a highly competitive, half-court game with a slower pace in the first half. Purdue has been a strong under team again this season, especially at home (4-9). Taking under 70.5 and isolating Michigan State under 35.5.
Kansas State is playing well at the moment, with five consecutive wins while covering the spread in eight straight games. However, I believe they have reached peak market value here at just +2.5 or +3. My simulations make them +8 home underdogs against Arizona.
BOILER UP!
My simulations make UConn -8 which is still a very healthy number for a Final 4 game. Alabama is one of the best Rim & 3 Rate teams in the country, and they achieve this with a unique blend of pace and size. I believe Donovan Glingan will struggle to play more than 25 minutes due to fouls and pace. With the game never really in doubt, a backdoor cover at 11.5 is well within the range of outcomes here. Take the points.
I love both of these teams, but the number is too big on the neutral court with time to prepare. I make Purdue a -2 favorite and like betting into this number at +4.5, as I think there is a lot of variance in Purdue the rest of the way depending on how Zach Edey is able to stay out of foul trouble. I think it will be difficult for him against Graham Ike and a disciplined Gonzaga team. Take the points.
My simulations make Arizona -9 vs. Clemson in this matchup. Arizona has a sizable rebounding edge, doesn't put opponents on the foul line often, and will really push Clemson with pace.
My simulations make JMU just +4 in this matchup with Duke. JMU is strong enough on the offensive glass and scoring in transition with their tempo. With the crowd definitely leaning towards the Duke's I think this number is a little short here. Take the +7.5
My simulations are very high on Gonzaga again in the second round. Kansas has very little depth without Kevin McCullar. Kansas plays at a very similar pace which will make this matchup comfortable for the Zags. I make this line -7.
While the free throw shooting will likely be a concern later in the tournament, Saint Mary's has a massive rebounding and defensive edge in this matchup. The contrast in styles isn't an issue as most matchups are a contrast of styles for this team. I make the Gaels -7.5 in this matchup.
My simulations make Colorado -2.5 favorites in this matchup with Florida. Colorado is a legit top 20 offense and one of the best free throw shooting teams in the tournament. Injuries on the Florida side combined with a discipline Colorado defense (top 15 in defensive FT rate) will be the difference.