In my opinion, this spread directly reflects the hype of UCSD making the Big Dance in its first season of eligibility. I love the way the Tritons play, but I think this number is a few points too low. Michigan is peaking at the right time and should cover here.

Basketball is a game of matchups and UC San Diego is a matchup nightmare for Michigan, with the way the Tritons force turnovers and shoot the three. If they make 10 or more, Michigan is in trouble. Take the points.

Excellent season for UCSD, but I prefer fading them at their peak market value in a tournament setting. I have Michigan winning 62% of simulations, which implies we should be paying -163 for this moneyline, not -140.

In the lead-up to March Madness, the betting public goes mad over a mid-major with a double-digit seed. This year, the honor goes to UC San Diego. Its analytics numbers jump off the page, and its record is impressive. Still, this number is unrealistic. The Tritons, who are not far removed from Division II, tore through a soft schedule. While they are ranked an impressive 36th by Kenpom, that's still 11 slots below the Wolverines. Michigan wields a pair of seven-footers, while San Diego's tallest starter is 6-8. Underdog backers cite the possibility that Michigan remains worn down from its Big Ten tourney title, but players recover faster than in bygone days.

In only their 5th year of Division 1 basketball, San Diego makes their first NCAA tournament and faces Michigan in the first round. This is the classic five versus 12 seed. But San Diego isn’t your ordinary 12 seed. They went 30-4 and won the Big West this season but covered 25 games and their 78% cover rate was the highest in college basketball. They also like to take threes and make 10.8 per game, which is 5th in the nation. The Tritons strength on offense is they don't turn the ball over having the least amount at 8.7. Michigan just won the Big Ten tournament and they are a five seed and only -2.5? San Diego to win.

I absolutely win either way here. Personally, I'd be giddy if hated Michigan was ousted immediately, and UC San Diego (on a 15-game winning streak) has been awesome this season in winning the Big West regular-season and conference tournament titles. But the Tritons' toughest non-conference game was San Diego State and they lost that. The Wolverines seem to have re-found their groove in winning the Big Ten Tournament and can smother UCSD with size. Cheap price in my opinion even if I'm rooting for the underdog halfway.

Do I worry this will become too popular? A little. Can former D-2 kids show up in the big dance in a big way? Hmm. These Tritons know who they are, they are a covering machine (25-7) and they won't back down here. Michigan looked dead to me before Big 10 tourney and their biggest issue is their backcourt cannot handle the ball and they give away possessions. Tritons excel at forcing TOs and they don't give it away. UCSD has a top 60 KenPom ) and top 30 D and if they can run at the Michigan bigs early and get them in foul trouble, they could really work the MICH bench. The Wolverines have been incredibly lucky in close/late-game situations; regression is coming.