My simulations make this game 151 and SportsLine is even higher at 153, so at 147.5 we’re getting real value relative to projection. The key here is offensive grading. Both teams rate out extremely well in shot quality metrics, creating efficient looks at the rim and from three rather than living on low-percentage shots. I also give Arizona the edge in dictating tempo at home, which should keep this played at their preferred pace. Over 147.5

What an awesome game this should be between two National Championship contenders! My Wildcats haven't surrendered more than 68 points in regulation to a visiting team in their last six home games. Meanwhile, 6 of Iowa State's 8 conference road games have hit the under. I expect this game to be close between two excellent defensive teams surrendering well below 70 points per game. Prediction: Arizona 71, Iowa State 68. If healthy, there is no excuse for my alma mater's basketball team not to make the Final Four this year!