My sims make this total closer to the high-140s. The tempo tug-of-war is key: Oklahoma State wants to run, but Kansas is elite at forcing teams into half-court sets, and they bring a top-10 defensive efficiency profile into a February conference road spot where possessions naturally tighten. Oklahoma State’s offense is outside the top 60, and when they step up in class against defenses like this, their efficiency tends to dip. This is a classic spot where the market is pricing pace more than matchup. Kansas’ defensive rating plus their ability to control game flow is the edge, and that points clearly to value on the under.
