Zack's Picks (1 Live)
The Sacramento Kings are an organization that on a nightly basis you don’t know which personnel is going to be on the court. It’s been a horrific road trip of four straight losses, and they are now 6-32 on the year on the road. After just 99 points against a Brooklyn team that had lost ten straight, I’m looking for a more efficient game from Sacramento. DeMar DeRozan is back in the lineup, and Toronto should be fueled off a poor showing yesterday against the Pistons. This also concludes the Kings last main road trip of the season, as their final two road games are single games against the Warriors and Portland. Take the over.
Tonight, we have seen one of the biggest spread moves without a player injury involved as the point spread has dropped from Atlanta -5. A lot of that has to do with the fact that Orlando has not lost all four games in one year to the Hawks since 2012-2013. Banchero on the season has shot just 29.5 percent in three games against Atlanta. Expect him to be aggressive from the start, as he has had success drawing fouls against the Hawks. He clears his points prop for the first time this season against Atlanta.
Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and LA Lakers are in back to back spots. For the Lakers they did rest Luka Doncic in yesterday’s win over the Washington Wizards. I also expect the Lakers to be motivated seeing a Cavaliers team that trounced them in January 129 to 99. The extra energy for the Lakers should be there as they had one of the easiest schedules over the last week, in which they faced Indiana, Brooklyn, and Washington. Since December the Lakers are also 5 and 1 to the over on the second night of back to backs. Take the over.
Yesterday was a flat spot for the Dallas Mavericks at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Timberwolves were energized with the return of Anthony Edwards, and blew out the Mavericks by thirty points. Prior to that loss the Mavericks were competitive in four straight games. They lost two games in overtime, covered against Denver, and beat Portland as a double digit underdog. Tail Dallas as the slight road favorite.
After an 0 and 2 start, the Tampa Bay Rays have cashed in consecutive games. That included taking game one yesterday over the Milwaukee Brewers, 3-2. That’s right in line of what we saw last season when Tampa Bay won the series over Milwaukee, with two one run wins of 4-3, and 3-2. Back the Rays as Shane McClanahan gets his first win since 2023.
A returning star player usually means the rest of the roster is going to have an impact with less scoring. I look for the opposite with Timberwolves player Naz Reid. Reid is accustomed to his role with Edwards, and without him on the court has struggled. He has went under today’s point prop offering in 13 out of his last 14 games. After shooting just 3 of 15 against Detroit Saturday, take Reid to finally end his slump.
Both the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates are 2-1 to the under to begin the season. Based on last year’s results, one would figure to take the under today. Both games against the Reds last year that Braxton Ashcraft started were 2-1 games, and Chase Burns had his best start of the season against Pittsburgh going 6 1/3 with ten strikeouts and one run allowed. In an early season divisional game, look for the familiarity against both pitchers to benefit the bats. Take the over.
A player that continues to grow is Amen Thompson of the Houston Rockets. He has been on a terror in the rebounds prop market, and came close to a triple double two games ago against the Minnesota Timberwolves. He is one of those rare players that wants to be on the floor as much as possible, and that is evident in him playing 40 or more minutes in five out of the last eight games. Just two weeks ago he put in 23 points and 12 rebounds against the Pelicans, and I expect his best upside to be in the points category tonight. Tail his points over.
It’s been a wild month of March for the Orlando Magic who had a seven game win streak, and followed it up with a six game losing streak. Ending that losing streak by beating the lowly Sacramento Kings by just four points only helps our case to back today. The Magic are 2-0 ATS against the Raptors this season, including outscoring them 44 to 21 in the fourth quarter of the matchup on January 30th. Grab the Magic plus the points.
Through a March Madness run even the top seeds get that one scary matchup. Today, I expect that to be the case for the Arizona Wildcats, who were flawless in their win over Arkansas. Purdue has the size, and four year program players to give the Wildcats their first true test. In the back end of tournament action forty eight hours later, grab Purdue plus the points.
Iowa State is the big question mark heading into tonight with the status of Joshua Jefferson up in the air. Tennessee and Rick Barnes are aiming for their third straight Elite 8 appearance, which has the market on their side. To me though, they are similar to Nebraska that got away with a win in the Sweet 16 against Virginia. This will be a tight game, but grab the Cyclones who have that Gonzaga trait of everyone has been waiting for this program moment.
The LA Lakers return home after a six game road trip. They had their down moments offensively in two out of their last three games, with 105 points against Orlando and 110 against Detroit. This should be a spot where the Lakers do not have to go all out to get a win, and would not be surprised to see Luka Doncic sit this one out. Looking for a 115 to 99 type of win for the Lakers. Tail the under.
Blowout wins can shift one’s mindset for a steep line. Alabama took care of business easily with two wins by over 20 points against Hofstra and Texas Tech. Michigan is a different animal and has that ability to turn a tied game into a bettor’s nightmare within three to four game minutes. I’d put their explosive grade higher than anyone left in the tournament. Tail the Wolverines as they advance to the Elite 8.
As great as the Atlanta Braves were in spring training, everything is now reset to start their season. They were one of the worst teams to begin the year a season ago, where they started 0 and 7. Look for the pressure to start the year on a positive note, to derail game one against Kansas City when Chris Sale exits. Banking on late inning runs, or even an extra inning Royals win here. Tail KC.