The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, so it’s no surprised that they are favored against reigning MVP Josh Allen and the Bills, the pre-season Super Bowl favorites who have had an uneven campaign thus far. The Bills looked much improved coming off their bye week, even if it was against dreadful backup QB Andy Dalton and the middling Carolina Panthers. Although we’re all aware of Mahomes’ hold over Allen in the postseason, the Bills are 4-1 behind Allen in regular-season matchups against the Chiefs. We’ll take the points, which could come into play here, and of course would find greater value if a full +3 becomes available.

Many fantasy football players were surprised to see the veteran TE emerge as a high-volume target early in the season. But this was no accident. The Saints rewarded Juwan Johnson, who emerged as a primary target late last year, with a 3-year, $30 million extension. He is now paired with Tyler Shough, with whom he played one collegiate season at Oregon. They were reported to have a strong connection during training camp, and there's little doubt the untested rookie in his first start will be relying upon the 6-4 Johnson as a safety net for short, easy completions. We love all the Juwan Johnson overs Sunday, but the receptions are the safest bet. He could have this by halftime.

Given the trajectory of these teams, taking the points is the only way to go. The Seahawks, who once had one of the most significant home-field advantages in the NFL, have seen their performance arc do an about-face. They are 1-2 at home, with the only win against the lowly Saints. The Texans are on the rebound from a disastrous 0-3 start, all by one score, and their top-ranked scoring defense lends even more value to this key number with the hook.

The well-documented struggles in the Eagles passing game have a prime get-right spot Thursday against the Giants. Brown is in the proverbial "squeaky wheel" spot as the volatile WR seeks to get more targets and, in fairness, the ceiling of this offense would escalate if that happens. Look for Brown to get heavy volume and clear this reception total.

We're all aware at what an injury-ravaged mess the 49ers are heading into Thursday night's game. But we're also aware that Mac Jones has emerged as a high-end backup and already performed well this year and WRs such as Kendrick Bourne and Demarcus Robinson have had more than one day in the sun at the NFL level. This is an important divisional game and we expect what's left of the 49ers to compete well against a Rams club coming off a taxing comeback win against the Colts.

The hype surrounding the sudden emergence of Benson as the RB1 in Arizona due to veteran James Connor's season-ending injury has gotten a bit out of hand. This is especially true in the fantasy football world, where numerous analysts would have you believe the former Florida State star is the second coming of Jim Brown, If this were the case, he'd have been the starter already. Although there's no doubt he will be the volume workhorse, it's difficult to see him clipping this combo line against a solid Seattle defense unless he breaks one long play.

The Cardinals started 2-0 against meager competition and still managed to have some scary moments after getting complacent with seemingly comfortable leads. Their defense has been solid, but the offense has lacked consistency and big plays. This is a major swing game for both clubs in a super competitive NFC West race and we like the Seahawks, amid their edge in current form, to pull off a win in a right game and send Arizona to its second consecutive loss.

Following Courtland Sutton's goose egg against the Saints last season, QB Bo Nix publicly vowed to never let such a performance happen again to his #1 receiver. The following week, Sutton went for 8 catches and 100 yards on 11 targets. Following his 1 catch/6 yards stat line against the Colts, we expect the Broncos to again affirm their commitment to the sure-handed veteran as a primary weapon.

We simply like the better team getting points in this one and aren't necessarily buying the narrative that the Lions are regression candidates and that the Micah Parsons acquisition makes the Packers the NFC North favorites.

We see the Commanders as prime regression candidates and, although they should still be a winning and exciting team, this play is more about belief in the Giants taking a step forward. They should have one of the NFL's top defensive lines and an offense that should be much more productive behind an overhauled QB room.

We are confident this Justin Fields/Aaron Rodgers "dual revenge game" has 16-13 written all over it wither way. Sometimes an ugly perceived matchup results in fireworks, but we'll take our chances on this one.

The Patriots are widely expected to be one of this season's breakout clubs, with many analysts predicting a winning season and perhaps a playoff berth. While we're not quite as high on New England, we expect the Patriots to be further in their progression when they host the new-look Raiders in Week 1. This is a pivotal game for their season trajectory and we expect the Patriots to cover this light number in coach Mike Vrabel's debut.

These clubs were both bottom 5 in scoring defense last year, combining to yield 57 points per game to their opponents. What's more, both clubs appear to have made their biggest strides on offense. Jacksonville hired an offensive mind in new coach Liam Coen and drafted dynamic two-way star Travis Hunter. Carolina's Dave Canales saw his club come alive down the stretch last season and added a foundational piece in WR Tetairoa McMillan at No. 8 overall in the draft. Look for these clubs to engage in a Week 1 shootout that will coast Over a total that is likely to close in the range of 48 or higher. Grab it now.

Although we don't know how long Tua's physical health or Tyreek's mental health will hold up, and coach Mime McDaniel could easily cash his short odds for first coach to be fired, this is till a good spot for the Dolphins. They're healthy for now and the Colts don't won't be able to expose their weak secondary as often as other opponents will.