New England’s run defense has really regressed since losing DT Milton Williams. They will also be without LB Robert Spillane for this game, and both DT Christian Barmore & LB Harold Landry have ‘questionable’ tags. The Pats allowed 100+ rushing yards to RBs James Cook and Chase Brown in recent weeks, and even allowed the Giants RB duo of Tyrone Tracy & Devin Singletary to run for 100+ yards. Derrick Henry ran for 100 yards on just 11 carries last week. This Ravens offense may finally be figuring things out towards the end of the season. Henry is a freight train that is tough to tackle in the cold. I like King Henry to go off today.
Reverse line movement alert. More than 80% of the public betting tickets are on the Patriots as underdogs, yet the line is moving to Ravens -3.5 on most books. Baltimore can look to exploit New England on the ground, where they have struggled defensively in recent weeks. It looks like Ravens stud safety Kyle Hamilton will play tonight, which is huge for Baltimore. This Ravens team has been perplexing this season, but it feels like they are slowly starting to come into form. Pats +3 smells like a trap. Ravens flock.
Jack Campbell has the 5th most tackles in the NFL (143), and has 9+ tackles + assists in 7 straight games. Campbell has gone for double-digit tackles in 7/14 games this season, and gets a great matchup against the Steelers. Pittsburgh plays with 2/3 TEs on the field at one of the highest rates in the NFL, as their offense is built around the run game and quick-release passes. Campbell should have a ton of tackle chances against the Steelers, who will be looking to evade Detroit’s pressure and get the ball out. Campbell can get to that 10th tackle to cash this for us.
This moved to -7.5 on me while I was trying to lock in Detroit -7, but I’ll still play it despite getting a worse number. I’m sprinkling Lions Alt Spread -19.5 (+350) as well. Since November 2022, Dan Campbell’s Lions are 15-0 SU after a loss and 14-1 ATS. They are covering in these bounce back games by a wide margin, and get to play indoors at home where their offense can go full throttle. The Steelers defense will be missing DE T.J Watt, LB Nick Herbig, and CB James Pierre. On offense, Pittsburgh’s heavy package formations matchup poorly against a Lions defense that is more beatable in the secondary. I don’t see the Steelers offense keeping pace in this one. Lions by a lot.
The Jaguars continue to impress in their first year under Liam Coen, and can play the Broncos close in this matchup. Denver just keeps walking the tightrope and winning close games with clutch play, and some fortunate calls/bounces of the ball. The Broncos are on an 11-game win streak, which feels daunting to bet against. However, teams on 11+ game win streaks are 14-36-2 ATS since 1990! The Broncos beat the Commanders, Chiefs, Raiders, Texans, Giants & Jets all by 3 points or less. Jacksonville’s Top-5 run defense can force Bo Nix to beat their zone coverage-heavy scheme. Nix has been impressive, but he got away with a few dropped interceptions last week. The Jags are live to win this game outright.
Arizona’s offense has gone pass-happy with Jacoby Brissett under center. After losing multiple RBs to injury, the Cardinals had little choice but to throw the ball. Brissett now has 40+ pass attempts in 6 straight games, including one with 57 attempts! I like this game to go over the total of 48 with both teams trading scores. If we get that kind of game script, Brissett should be slinging the rock as usual. I like him to go for 40+ attempts again.
The total opened at 46.5 and is rising on most books, so I’m grabbing it here before it gets through the key number of 48. Arizona is 9-5 to the over this season, and 6-1 to the over at home. The Cardinals defense gave up 40+ points to the Rams & Texans in each of the past two weeks. Their defense has struggled, but their offense has been much more efficient with Jacoby Brissett, who faces a Falcons secondary that is trending down. It looks like Atlanta will get back WR1 Drake London, and Arizona may also have their WR1 Marvin Harrison Jr. available in a limited capacity. I see these teams trading scores in an indoor environment and pushing this total into the 50’s.
Dart is over this rushing yards mark in 6/9 games he has started this season. He faces a blitz-heavy Brian Flores-coached Vikings defense that will be sending pressure at him all game. There has been talk about Giants interim HC Mike Kafka needing to protect Dart after his concussion, but I don’t think that will stop him from playing on instinct and taking off. Last week Dart ran 9 times for 63 yards, and is live to soar over this rushing yards total again this week.
Shough is over this rushing yards mark in 4 of his last 5 games, and has been taking off frequently. Shough had 6+ rush attempts in each of those games, and now faces a Jets defense that is allowing over 21 QB scramble yards per game. Shough had 32 rushing yards last week, and I think he continues to use his legs against the Jets.
Mayfield soared over this passing yards total last game for the first time in 5 games. The Bucs WR room is finally healthy, and Tampa is just a different team with Mike Evans on the field. Mayfield’s numbers fell off a cliff without him. The Panthers rank 24th in defensive pass DVOA, and Mayfield needs to put this Bucs team on his back in this crucial divisional clash for first place. I expect Tampa Bay to get back to their explosive ways. Mayfield throws for 250+ today.
Evans and Mayfield immediately got their rhythm back in Evans’ first game back from injury, going for 100+ receiving yards. This week, I like Evans to score against a vulnerable Carolina secondary. The Panthers have given up TDs to opposing WR1s in 4 of their last 5 games. Evans & Mayfield have connected for a score in more than half of the games they’ve played together in their careers, so getting nice plus odds on an Evans TD almost always feels worth a sprinkle.
The winner of this NFC South clash will claim first place in the division. Simply put, I’m backing the better team here. I’ll put my trust in Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense over Bryce Young’s Panthers. Carolina’s offense has thrived behind Rico Dowdle and the run game, but his efficiency is way down over the past few weeks. The Bucs finally have a healthy WR room, and should exploit a Panthers secondary that ranks bottom-10 in pass defense DVOA.
Concerns regarding Swift’s groin injury have shifted the focus to Bears RB2 Kyle Monongai for most bettors. I’m still rolling with Swift, considering he logged multiple limited practices this week. Swift has carried a ‘questionable’ tag in several games this season, and has still gotten his typical 13-17 rush attempts. Swift is over this mark in 9/13 games this year. The Bears will be without WRs Rome Odunze & Luther Burden, so Ben Johnson is likely going to go run-heavy. Green Bay ranks middle of the pack in rush defense, and now will need to readjust without Micah Parsons. This rushing yards line is up to 56.5 on some books, which gives me some confidence that he will be healthy and play.
I’m a little late to the party here, but I’ve gotta get in on an Eagles TD prop. The Commanders defense has surrendered TD’s to opposing RBs in 5 straight weeks. Barkley has scored in back-to-back games, and this Eagles offense gets another soft matchup. I expect Barkley to keep his momentum rolling and punch one in today.
Byron Young leads the Rams in sacks this season with 11, and has the 6th most QB pressures (35) in the NFL. Seahawks LT Charles Cross has been ruled out, so I expect Verse & Young to get pressure on the edges. When these teams played in Week 11, Darnold didn’t take a sack, but he did throw 4 interceptions. He might be more willing to hold onto the ball this time around, which could help get Young sack opportunities.