Daniel's Picks (3 Live)
Daniel's Past Picks
Johnson is over this receiving yards number in 6/12 games this season, and has thrived with Jackson Dart under center. Johnson is over this line in 3 straight games, and has logged a 15+ yard grab in 6 games this season. He gets a strong matchup here against a Patriots defense that ranks bottom-five in yards and receptions allowed to opposing TEs. Johnson has 5+ targets in 7 games this year, and I expect Dart to look for him often.
Dart is only over this line in 3/7 games this season, but his misses were 195, 193, 191, and a low total in his first NFL start. Coming out of concussion protocol, Giants coaches and fans are hoping Dart protects himself more responsibly. This could lead to fewer scrambles and more passing, which is where the Patriots defense is easiest to beat, ranking 27th in defensive pass DVOA. The +7.5 Giants may be in a trailing game script, which would help this prop get over this modest total. Dart went for 283 against the Broncos and 242 against the Bears in his last game. He can get 200+ against the Patriots.
I bet on Johnson to go over his receiving yards total, and I'm playing .5unit on him as well. All 5 of Johnson's TDs this season have been thrown by Jackson Dart. The Patriots have struggled to defend opposing TE's, and Johnson leads the Giants with 12 red zone targets. Simple enough equation for me to want to sprinkle the TD.
The 10-2 Patriots have been impressive, but they aren’t beating many teams by this kind of margin. The Raiders, Dolphins, Steelers, Saints, Falcons, Buccaneers, and Bengals all lost to the Pats by 7 or less (Raiders actually won! #lol). The Giants are changing for the better under interim HC Mike “Metamorphosis” Kafka (high level literary joke), and finally got rid of their struggling DC Shane Bowen. The Giants best strength is their pass rush, and they’ll be facing a beat up New England O-line missing stud LT Will Campbell and C Jared Wilson. Vedarian Lowe at LT sounds like trouble. Jaxson Dart is back, and I like him to play Drake Maye competitively in Primetime. Grab the 7 & the hook while it’s still around.
The Broncos are 7-3 to the under this season and 3-1 to the under when playing on the road. Denver will get back elite CB Patrick Surtain. Their defense has held 7 different opponents under 20 points, and should be able to keep Marcus Mariota in check. Washington’s defense isn’t very good, but they do play a good deal of zone coverage, which Bo Nix has been less efficient against. Both of these teams come into this game off a bye, which historically trends to the under.
Buffalo will be missing both LT Dion Dawkins and RT Spencer Brown in this game. The Bills O-line struggled to protect Allen last week against the Texans vaunted pass rush, and now they will have to face T.J Watt & Alex Highsmith. After taking 8 sacks last week, I expect Allen to take off when he feels the heat. Allen is over this rushing yards total in 7/11 games this season. I might even consider laddering it up to 50+ (+350).
Vikings 3rd string QB Max Brosmer will get the opportunity to start. JJ McCarthy has been struggling mightily and is now sidelined due to injury. Brosmer is a proud Golden Gopher, and set the Minnesota University record for completions last year. The Vikings QB situation is in sketchy territory, so they have nothing to lose by letting Brosmer air it out. Minnesota are +11.5 dogs, and are likely to be playing from behind. I low key think Brosmer could be the most talented QB on the depth chart, and I expect him to look to prove that.
We cashed Cousins under 204.5 passing yards last week in a sweat (he had 199) against a woeful Saints team that played a putrid game. In his only other start this season, Cousins threw 21/31 for just 173 yards against the Dolphins. It will be a cold and rainy day at the Meadowlands, and I don’t see Cousins gunslinging in this environment without his WR1 Drake London. The Jets defense has quietly been playing solid ball lately. Whether through game script or good defense, the Jets have held QBs Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, Bo Nix, Bryce Young, Dillon Gabriel & Lamar Jackson under this low number.
As rough as the Jets season has been, I’m not sure they should be catching a full 3 points at home here. The one thing New York does well consistently is stop the run. If Bijan Robinson isn’t succeeding with his outside zone runs, Atlanta’s offense will have to rely on Kirk Cousins in the wind and rain. Jets backup QB Tyrod Taylor is 23-12-3 ATS as an underdog in his career, and is a responsible game manager. The Jets have lost by less than a FG to the Steelers, Bucs & Broncos this season. I think they can beat Atlanta without WR1 Drake London, so I’ll take the points.
Anderson has recorded a full sack in 6 straight games, and is coming off a monster 2.5 sack game. Colts QB Daniel Jones is playing through a fractured fibula, which could impact his footwork and mobility. Although Jones took no sacks last week against the Chiefs, he was sacked 7 times by the Falcons and 5 by the Steelers in the two games prior. The Texans defense is perhaps the best in the NFL, and Anderson leads their vaunted pass rush. I like bets on both Anderson and Danielle Hunter (+105) to record a sack.
Kittle has logged 6+ receptions in 3 straight games, and 4 receptions in 6/7 games this season. In Brock Purdy’s first start back from injury, he targeted Kittle 10 times. The Niners will have a tough test on the road against a stingy Browns defense, with heavy wind gusts expected. Purdy should look for Kittle in the short area passing game and hope he can create some YAC. I like Kittle to grab a 5th reception at plus money.
I feel obligated to fade Sanders here. Heavy wind gusts are expected in Cleveland. Despite winning his first NFL start last week, Sanders finished the game with a QBR of 8.8. He was 11/20 for 209 yards, with a 66-yard screen pass accounting for a large portion. Robert Saleh’s defense showed some grit last week against Carolina, and if the Niners play with that same intensity, they will make things tough on Sanders in a windy environment. This is a low passing yards total, but it reminds me of Jets QB Justin Fields’ sub-150 line in his last start (he finished with 119). Sanders’ best chance to beat San Fran is to limit turnovers and rely on the defense. He might not break 100 yards.