Daniel's Picks (4 Live)
Concerns regarding Swift’s groin injury have shifted the focus to Bears RB2 Kyle Monongai for most bettors. I’m still rolling with Swift, considering he logged multiple limited practices this week. Swift has carried a ‘questionable’ tag in several games this season, and has still gotten his typical 13-17 rush attempts. Swift is over this mark in 9/13 games this year. The Bears will be without WRs Rome Odunze & Luther Burden, so Ben Johnson is likely going to go run-heavy. Green Bay ranks middle of the pack in rush defense, and now will need to readjust without Micah Parsons. This rushing yards line is up to 56.5 on some books, which gives me some confidence that he will be healthy and play.
I’m a little late to the party here, but I’ve gotta get in on an Eagles TD prop. The Commanders defense has surrendered TD’s to opposing RBs in 5 straight weeks. Barkley has scored in back-to-back games, and this Eagles offense gets another soft matchup. I expect Barkley to keep his momentum rolling and punch one in today.
Byron Young leads the Rams in sacks this season with 11, and has the 6th most QB pressures (35) in the NFL. Seahawks LT Charles Cross has been ruled out, so I expect Verse & Young to get pressure on the edges. When these teams played in Week 11, Darnold didn’t take a sack, but he did throw 4 interceptions. He might be more willing to hold onto the ball this time around, which could help get Young sack opportunities.
More than 70% of the public betting tickets are on the Over, yet the total is ticking down to 43.5 on most books. Rams WR Davante Adams did not practice on Tuesday and doesn’t seem likely to play. That’s a big blow for the Rams- Adams leads the NFL in receiving TDs and red zone targets. When these teams last met in Week 11, the Rams won 21-19 and forced 4 interceptions from Sam Darnold. That game was played indoors at SoFi Stadium, and the Rams will now head to the raucous atmosphere at Lumen Field. Seattle’s defense has been elite, allowing 21 or fewer points in 11/14 games this season. Play the under in this late season NFC West clash for first place.
Dolphins RB1 De'Von Achane has cleared his injury designation, and looks like he's good to go for MNF. After he hurt his ribs last week against the Jets, Miami put their trust in RB2 Jaylen Wright. Wright got 24 carries for 100+ rush yards and 3 targets, and was on the field for significantly more snaps than Miami's other RB Ollie Gordon. The Dolphins have a crowded running back room, but Wright may have solidified his place in it last week. If there is any concern about Achane's injury, Wright should be in line for 5-7 carries. Wright has 3 games with 5+ carries this season, and had 17 or more yards in each of them.
Steelers RB1 Jaylen Warren is dealing with an illness ahead of this game, which could help Gainwell continue getting volume. Gainwell has been used effectively in the short area passing game, and is over this receiving yards mark in 5 of his last 6 games. Miami’s defense is quietly a Top-10 run stuffing unit since Week 10, so Pittsburgh could look to beat them with screens against stacked boxes. Gainwell has 7 games this season with 5+ targets, and I like him to get involved in Primetime with concerns about Warren’s status.
The Dolphins are 5-1 in their last 6 games, and have found their offensive identity behind a successful rush attack. The Steelers have been getting gashed on the ground in recent weeks, allowing 249 rushing yards to the Bills and 217 to the Ravens. Miami have also quietly been playing much better defense, now ranking 8th in defensive rush DVOA. Pittsburgh will probably be a popular pick coming off their upset win over the Ravens, but this feels like a let down spot. I like the Dolphins to keep it within a FG.
I took the Dolphins to cover the +3.5 spread, and I'm playing a half unit on the ML as well. Steelers star DE T.J Watt suffered a scary collapsed lung injury, and is recovering at home after receiving treatment. Good news that Watt is going to be ok, but bad news for Pittsburgh with him out of the lineup. Since 2017, Watt has missed 11 games... the Steelers are 1-10 SU without him. That (along with Miami playing much better on both sides of the ball over the past month) is my handicap.
It’s gonna take some courage to back J.J McCarthy against an improving Dallas defense, but I still think this spread is too wide. The Cowboys have only covered this margin against 3 teams this season- Jets, Commanders, Raiders. Minnesota finally have a healthy offensive line, and showed some life last week in an impressive shutout win. Dallas allows the most passing yards per game (255) to opposing QBs, so Justin Jefferson might be trading big plays back and forth with Dallas’ star WR duo. Vikings DC Brian Flores has the defense playing well over the last month. I think the Vikings can hang around in this game.
Johnson is over this receiving yards mark in 4 straight games, and 6 out of the last 7. Since taking over as the Saints starting QB Tyler Shough has looked Johnson’s way frequently, targeting him 28 times in his 5 starts. These teams played a month ago, and Johnson had 4 catches on 4 targets for 92 yards and a TD. Carolina has struggled against opposing TEs, and I expect Johnson to take advantage of them again.
Nacua has a fantastic matchup against a man coverage-heavy Lions defense. Detroit’s secondary has been decimated by injury. CB Terrion Arnold and SS Brian Branch are both on IR, and FS Kerby Joseph and his backup have been ruled out. Nacua had 8+ receptions in 5 straight weeks to start the season, but hasn’t cleared this line since then. He’s seen 9+ targets in 8 games this season, and with Davante Adams playing a bit banged up, I see Nacua getting heavy target share here. Puka goes off today.