We've been burned a couple times this years by the Bears via bad beat, including their pick-6 on the final play against Virginia when they appeared to have the cover (+6) locked up. But their road upset of Louisville (+20) shows the ceiling of this team and, if a reasonable version of this clubs shows up Saturday, it should have stubborn but undermanned Stanford outclassed by a decent margin.

Last year, the Bears surged down the stretch to win their final 6 games while looking like one of the better teams in the country in the process. This year's club, felled by a subpar defense, is still seeking to become bowl eligible. But we like this spot for the Bears against an Arizona club in dangerous of a letdown spot off its big road upset of Cincinnati.

We're compelled to take the points in this matchup of erratic ACC clubs battling to become bowl eligible. Neither team is as good nor as bad as it has looked at times. That said, this sets up for a strong Wolfpack performance following their blowout loss at Miami last week.

We expect the talented but erratic Blue Devils to become bowl eligible Saturday at the expense of a Virginia club that has performed above expectation but has gotten plenty of breaks along the way. The Cavaliers fell to a mediocre Wake Forest team last week and we see another loss coming by a TD+ against Duke.

The Wolf Pack put up a strong defensive effort in their last outing, but couldn't overcome a five-turnover outing from its stagnant offense. The Aggies allow their share of offensive production but they also score at a decent clip and we can't see Nevada keeping pace.

Last week, Ole Miss racked up more than 400 yards of total offense and 34 points against what once appeared to be an invincible Oklahoma defense. Meanwhile, the Vols racked up 56 points and 5004 yards of offense against Kentucky. Look for their red-hot offense to keep rolling and, as a bonus, coach Josh Heupel's motivation factor facing his alma mater should ensure a focused performance from the Tennessee side.

If you've watch the Seminoles play lately, you'd likely agree they don't deserve to be double-digit favorites against any opponent with a pulse. There's a decent chance this FUS team has quit on coach Mike Norvell and that's bad news against an upstart Wake Forest club coming off a big win over SMU.

This Cal team lacks the poise of its predecessors, as proven last week when the Bears squandered a double-digit lead against a marginal Virginia Tech team and lost in overtime. Even so, they shouldn't be nearly a TD underdog against a Cavaliers club that might be the most fraudulent 7-1 in CFB history. The Cavaliers barely survived against UNC and Washington State in games they deserved to lose. Cal is good enough to take advantage of this decline.

We're backing up or ATS play with a shot on what should be a live underdog in Cal.

To its credit, a Stanford club with limited talent has tortured superior opponents with a snail-pace offense that limits possessions and a conservative defense designed to prevent big plays. Undisciplined foes such as Boston College and Florida State found out the hard way and lost as 14-17 point favorites. But we believe a Pitt club that is rolling on the offensive side will execute well enough to create the needed separation in this one.

The plucky Gophers were a popular side last week, getting +10 points in a rivalry game against an opponent coming off a taxing win. Swing and a miss. But they should be in a high motivation spot Saturday against Spartans club that is making the most of its personnel but is extremely limited offensively.

We're taking the points in what should be a shootout with a resurging Wildcats club that has rebounded following a dreadful start. The Red Raiders are powerful but we're not sure they should be laying a TD on the road against a decent conference opponent.

The Bears surged down the stretch last year to salvage their season and will need a similar run this year. They have been mostly let down by a defense that can't get off the field. However, they have plenty of firepower and what we believe is the better personnel against a UCF team that is built in a similar mold.

In this battle of former NC State assistants Tim beck (CCU) and Tony Gibson (Marshall), we'll side with the home underdog in a battle of Sun Belt clubs fighting for bowl-eligible seasons. The Thundering Herd's competence is of particular surprise, as they have performed above expectation following a program overhaul that included a mass exodus of players and a new coaching staff. Coastal is also having a down year relative to its recent success but coming off its best performance of the season in a road upset of Appalachian State. Take the points in what rates to be a one-score game.

The Wildcats have been a stubborn out as a home underdog, with narrow losses to Ole Miss and Texas. We're not sure they can hold up against a Vols offense averaging 44 ppg and looking to bounce back from a 17-point loss to Alabama in which in outgained the Tide but was felled by poor execution on both sides of the ball.