R.J.'s Picks (11 Live)
The Colts have key injuries on both sides of the ball ...
The Rams had a wake-up call last week on a cross-country trip ...
The Chiefs' offensive line is in a bad state with Josh Simmons out and both Jawaan Taylor and Trey Smith in doubt ...
R.J.'s Past Picks
The Cowboys' biggest play on Thanksgiving didn't come from one of its biggest stars but rather Davis, who went 43 yards for a touchdown. He's seen his snap share bump up a bit in each of the last three games, and he's rewarded the Cowboys with 20+ rushing yards in three straight games while getting 3-4 carries. The Cowboys would do well to lean on him a bit more while he's playing well and save some wear and tear on Javonte Williams. The Lions have allowed just over 100 rushing yards per game on the year, but three of their five worst performances came in the last three weeks when five different RBs had a single rush go for 11+ yards. Worth playing 10.5 too.
The Cowboys are surging while the Lions are slumping, so it's tough to take Dallas when the spread was 6 on the lookahead. But since that line was posted, the Cowboys outplayed the Chiefs, while the Lions played an even game against the Packers, but lost another key player to injury in Amon-Ra St. Brown. With Trevon Diggs potentially returning for Dallas, this is a spot where we should expect the Cowboys defense to handle the Detroit passing attack in its current form, and defending the run will be key. Even if Dallas is behind, I trust their dynamic passing game to make this a tight game. Grab +3.5 if you see it at any point, but I'd still take the Cowboys at +3.
The Patriots are stuck dealing with key injuries on the offensive line, and this is the perfect matchup to counter those issues by leaning on the run game. The Giants have given up 6.2 yards per carry to RBs this season, and they've surrendered 185.5 rushing yards per game over the last six weeks. This isn't even a high number for Henderson, who saw 18 carries last week despite Rhamondre Stevenson's return, as he's gotten to 62 yards in four of his last five and three straight. Love the matchup, love the workload. I'd play anything in the 60s here.
The Patriots are on a nine-game winning streak, but the cracks may be starting to show. Drake Maye had accuracy issues in what should've been the easiest matchup he may ever see against a historically bad Bengals defense. The offense's issues from last year may return with the injuries up front, particularly to left tackle Will Campbell, and this is not an ideal matchup for a significant downgrade in protection on the edge. The Giants went blow for blow with the Lions, and I can't see a repeat of their late defensive meltdown with the Patriots' downgraded O-line. While my ratings think this should be 7, I expect it'll end up being another close game for both teams.