Jason's Picks (2 Live)
Jason's Past Picks
Connor Gillispie doesn't have major league stuff and that is playing out as the sample size expands against him. Facing this lineup will be his biggest challenge yet, especially in that ballpark on a warm spring day. Jesus Luzardo is still pretty filthy and he will be up to face his old team. The Phillies' bullpen is horrible, which gives me some pause, but the aren't going to blow a monster lead two days in a row to this Marlins outfit and I very much expect them to get a healthy lead here.
Tanner Houck is off to a rough start but this Pale Hose lineup should be an elixir. The BoSox are much more energized and ready for this series after sleepwalking through the one on the South Side last weekend. We have faded Chicago starter Sean Burke (Go Terps!) every start thus far and see no reason to change course now. The White Sox starting to look very much like last year's model.
Shane Baz is finally healthy and looking like the Rays latest stud starter. He has wipeout stuff and Yankees bats have come back to earth in a big way. Carlos Carrasco is pretty washed and having to pitch in this tiny minor league ballpark will do him no favors. His 6.12 FIP is actually lower than I thought it would be. I don't love the Yanks middle relief if Carrasco does get a quick hook.
Hunter Greene may be the best starter in MLB right now. Adding a third pitch and trusting his stuff in the zone has made all the difference in the world. The O's have a middling lineup and they don't hit premier pitching well. Brandon Young is making his MLB debut with a bad defensive team behind him could be a big problem for Baltimore. The Reds can run all over Orioles catchers, too. The O's had to go to pen early Friday night.
I promise this is not just a direct response to the bonkers 8th inning at Wrigley on Friday. Zac Gallen has been really bad since his first start at Yankee Stadium and can't command the breaking stuff. Ben Brown is requiring over 17 pitches per inning to operate with a 1.75 WHIP and teams are batting .295 off him. Hmm. Even if the wind ends up blowing in here, I like these lineups to do damage and both pens have their issues. Brown's groundball rate has dropped and the 44.4% launch angle sweet spot vs him portends bad things pitching in this ballpark. It's going to be cold at Wrigley for sure but I suspect these starters heat up the bats anyway.
The Dodgers used this homestand to get Freddie Freeman back in the lineup and to start hitting the ball better collectively as a team. I expect that to carry over here against Jacob deGrom, who is still a long ways away from what he once was. Also, with Kumar Rocker going tonight I could see the Rangers' pen being on fumes by tomorrow night. And Yoshi Yamamoto is in peak form. I am going to be backing him quite a bit this season and beyond. Rangers cannot get the bats going as expected just yet.
The Mets are 6-1 at home and the weather isn't brutal this weekend. The bats should start to heat back up here after a terrible series in Minnesota. All the Juan Soto chatter is just noise - he will mash. And we are fading Miles Mikolas every start until further notice. He looks cooked, and Frankie Lindor, and Soto own him. David Peterson's career ERA is over a run lower when pitching at home. Mark Vientos hitting his first HR was a good sign, the Polar Bear has been very locked in at home, and the Mets can definitely produce more runs than they have shown so far. Buying the dip here.
The Jays re 15-4 on the run line, best in MLB, and they are starting an emerging young starter (who the manager left in the game too long last time out) at a time when Vlad Guerrero is starting to heat up vs an M's lineup that has issues. The Mariners don't exactly make a habit out of beating teams by multiple runs. Jays are 7-3 at home and Mariners have barely had to travel yet and are just 2-4 on the road. Having George Springer and Vladdy going at the same time will be huge for Toronto.
The Marlins don't seem to know how bad they are and show way more fight than I expected. Neither of these starters has looked like the best version of himself, but Sandy Alcantara is coming back from a long absence and is gaining a better feel for his changeup. They've been very competitive within the NL East so far. Connor Norby's return is a fairly big deal for a lineup that's already been overproducing in my estimation.
When Logan O'Hoppe hits the ball he hits it hard, and facing a righty has not been a problem for him at all, with 4 HR and a .967 OPS vs the same side. Kumar Rocker is really struggling and I suspect he's just what the Angels need to try to ramp their offensive production back up.
These starting pitchers could be gone by the third inning. Kumar Rocker looks like a bullpen arm to me, but the Rangers have so many injuries they keep rolling him out there. This Angels lineup has a lot more pop - at least early - than a year ago. Jack Kochanowicz has recorded 34 Ks in 81 MLB IP. Yeah, that's gonna make your degree of difficulty getting out pretty high. He's surviving, barely, with an extreme groundball rate, but he lacks any plus pitch and the Rangers lineup has better than its shown this season. Getting to feast on this kid could be just what they need to wake up in a big way here.
I don't buy Tomo Sugano as an MLB-caliber pitcher. He was sold as having Greg Maddux-like control to offset his lack of velo and swing and miss, but he's walking a ton of batters. When he misses it's center cut and it gets blasted. The Guardians will put the ball in play - the O's defense is weak. Tanner Bibee might not be all the way back yet but he's a legit starter. The Orioles' bullpen lacks a right-handed long man and has already thrown the most innings in baseball. The Guardians will put pressure on them.
JP Sears likes to hunt punchouts from the left side and he's going to find some willing accomplices in a Pale Hose lineup that has a 28.3% K-rate vs lefties (26th in MLB). Chicago also has a .253 OBP vs lefties (28th), and a .554 OPS, so quality ABs have been at a premium. The A's lefty Jeffrey Springs didn't have his best stuff Tuesday but still K'd 4 Sox in 5 IP. Sears has 7 Ks in 2 of his three starts. Some frustration setting in with Pale Hose as young hitters chase pullside power and try to do too much.