Kade Anderson fanned a whopping 135 batters in 93.1 innings in Class AA before getting promoted to the Mariners. In his third major-league start, he'll face an Athletics lineup that strikes out vs. southpaws at the seventh-highest rate. Pitching at home, look for Anderson to go at least five innings and rack up at least six strikeouts.

I'm fading Spencer Arrighetti, who is expected to have the bulk role after opener Spencer Miles. Since returning from a condition that causes nerve pain in his foot, the 26-year-old Arrighetti has been ineffective. He's made two starts for Toronto, giving up six earned runs in 7.1 innings on eight hits and four walks. Guardians starter Gavin Williams is 6-3 with a 3.27 ERA at home and should bounce back strong from his worst outing of the season.

The Cards have lost five straight and are calling up lefty Cooper Hjerpe to make his MLB debut. St. Louis averages just 3.78 runs at home. Trevor Rogers has allowed three or fewer runs in 13 of his last 14 starts, posting a 2.57 ERA in that span. Back the O’s to get the sweep.

Michael McGreevy is a major regression candidate, with an expected ERA of 5.31 and an expected slugging percentage of .481. The Orioles should have a starting pitching edge with Kyle Bradish going, plus their bullpen is in good shape. Look for St. Louis to drop its fifth straight.

Peter Lambert was shellacked last time out at home, but on the road the Astros' starter owns a 2.98 ERA with just over one strikeout per inning. He's facing a Yankees lineup that has fanned at the second-highest rate over the past month. Lambert has struck six-plus batters in six of his last nine outings. I would also play this Over 5.5 strikeouts at plus money.

The Brewers have won Logan Henderson's last eight starts. He carries a 0.90 WHIP into Monday's matchup at San Diego. The Padres are hot, but starter Casey Mize might not be benefitting from a change of scenery. The former Tiger got lit up in his first start with the Padres, giving up eight earned runs in 3.1 innings to Arizona.

Robbie Ray aims to make a good first impression with the Padres, hoping to continue a stretch in which he's 7-0 in his last 12 appearances. He posted a 2.00 ERA in July and a 1.36 ERA in June. The Astros rank 17th in OPS against lefties. The Padres' offense has picked up lately. While it's not on Houston's level, the pitching edge makes this price attractive.

Mariners starter Bryce Miller is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA in four career appearances against Detroit. That includes a June 6 start in which he fanned nine and allowed one hit over six innings. Tigers starter Framber Valdez is 2-4 with a 4.68 ERA on the road, walking 25 batters in 65.1 innings. Back the Mariners in the rubber game.

This will be Hayden Wesneski's second start since returning from Tommy John surgery. He did OK in his 2026 debut, allowing three earned runs in 5.2 innings vs. the Angels. However, he gave up seven hits and two walks. Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage has a good chance to hold down Houston's righty-heavy lineup; his K rate goes up and his walk rate goes down against righties, who are batting .180 against him. On June 24, Yesavage held the Astros to one run on two hits over 5.2 innings. Look for Toronto to at least be tied through five.

Michael Lorenzen, 34, remains one of MLB's worst pitchers. At Coors Field, he's 1-4 with an 8.34 ERA in 10 starts. He ranks near the bottom in a slew of advanced metrics. On Monday he faces a frustrated Rays lineup that has scored 14 runs in its last eight games, including just three in a weekend series against the White Sox. Current Rays' batters own a 1.079 OPS against Lorenzen. Whether Ian Seymour (2 runs allowed in his last 10.2 innings, 0.91 WHIP over his last seven outings) starts or follows an opener, I like the Rays to lead after five.

The Brewers are 36-20 at home, and I like their chances of jumping on Bubba Chandler and the Pirates’ pen. He sports a 1.41 WHIP and struggles with command. On July 11 vs. the Brewers, Chandler walked three and needed 97 pitches to complete 4.2 innings. Several Milwaukee batters have a good, albeit brief history against Chandler. I would not play this higher than -145.

For all of their superstar talent, the Dodgers have not been crushing lefties lately. On Sunday they face southpaw Jake Bennett. He posted a 2.20 ERA in July after posting a 2.78 ERA in June. Back Boston on the run line in the first five.

The Tigers put up 21 runs in winning the first two games of this series, and I expect them to keep hitting and sweep. Athletics lefty Gage Jump is 2-4 with a 5.24 ERA at home. While he pitched well last time out at Boston, Jump walked four batters for the second consecutive start. Tigers starter Keider Montero posted a 3.18 ERA over seven July appearances. Look for Detroit, which has scored 44 runs in its past four games, to respond to the Tarik Skubal trade with a fourth win in five games.

The Rays are 40-16 at home and have the starting pitching edge with Nick Martinez opposing Erick Fedde. In two starts since the All-Star Break, the 33-year-old Fedde served up four homers in a total of 8.1 innings. The White Sox are 23-30 on the road. This is a good price on the first-place Rays.

The Nats' Jake Irvin will pitch in the majors for the first time in over two months. He went on the 60-day injured list due to a shoulder strain. Irvin looked sharp in his minor-league rehab, fanning 12 batters over 11.1 innings. Before going down with the injury, Irvin had posted a career-high 25.4 percent strikeout rate. In fact, he struck out seven Braves in his last MLB start, on May 23. He has registered at least four strikeouts in 10 of 11 starts this season. While Irvin likely will be limited to 75 or so pitches, that should be enough. The Braves have struck out the fifth-most times over the past 30 days (while hitting the second-most homers).