The host Pirates are undervalued in this spot behind Jared Jones. He owns a 1.20 ERA in July with 23 strikeouts in 15 innings. Pittsburgh has been hitting lefties extremely well lately, giving the Bucs a chance to get to Matthew Boyd. Back the Pirates to win for the seventh time in their last 10 games.
Spencer Arrighetti owns a 1.69 WHIP on the road, which could spell trouble against a White Sox lineup that performs better at home. Especially with Munetaka Murakami back. The White Sox have lost five of Davis Martin's last six starts, but he's been much better at home (5-1, 1.80 ERA).
Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt fixed his mechanics in the minors and has been a totally different pitcher since returning. He’s won all four of his starts since then while issuing only one walk. Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy is a major regression candidate with a 5.35 expected ERA. Back the Diamondbacks to at least be tied through five.
The Rays are 8-1 versus the Blue Jays this season. In this series, Tampa Bay has outscored Toronto 23-5. The Jays have mustered 10 runs through six games of this homestand. And their defense has been shaky too. Lay the reasonable price as the Rays end their trip on a high note.
San Diego has averaged 6.3 runs over its last 10 games. Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis and Ty France all are in a groove and should have success against 35-year-old lefty Martin Perez, who is returning from the injured list. This is his first appearance since July 5. The Padres have the starting pitching edge behind Michael King. Back San Diego to improve to 5-1 versus Atlanta.
The Cubs have scored 27 runs the past three games, but it could be tough sledding versus Keider Montero. He owns a 2.50 ERA over his last 10 appearances, including 3.1 scoreless innings last time out. For the season, he sports a 0.98 WHIP. Cubs starter Colin Rea (1.42 WHIP) gives up a lot of baserunners. and his expected ERA (5.46) ranks in the bottom 10 percent of MLB. Back Detroit in the first five.
Angels rookie Walbert Urena continues to put up impressive outings. He's allowed an expected slugging percentage of .290 with an actual ERA of 2.88. The Cards counter with lefty Matthew Liberatore, who owns a 5.44 road ERA. Batters are slugging .512 against him away from St. Louis. Back the lowly Angels to win their third straight.
A pair of struggling veteran aces hook up in Toronto with Kevin Gausman facing Drew Rasmussen. I have a lot more faith in Rasmussen finding his form. And when it comes to the offenses, there's no comparison lately. Tampa Bay ranks fifth in OPS (.789) over the past 30 days, while Toronto ranks last (.624). The Blue Jays have mustered six runs in four games since the All-Star Break. Back the Rays up to -120.
Current Guardians are batting .185 with a .517 OPS in 92 career at-bats against Twins starter Joe Ryan. He comes off an All-Star appearance in which he fanned two in one scoreless inning. Ryan's strikeout rate has increased lately, another good sign. The Guardians counter with Tanner Bibee, who sports a 4.82 FIP. Outfielder Byron Buxton (hip) is back from the injured list. Look for Minnesota to improve to 5-2 vs. Cleveland this season.
The Athletics have lost 11 of 12, getting outscored 97-42 in that span. A's lefty Jeffrey Springs has an ERA above 10.00 since the start of June. He has given up an MLB-high 26 homers -- including 19 in his last 10 starts. The surging Diamondbacks, who erased a seven-run deficit to win 8-7 Sunday over the Cardinals, rank fourth in OPS against southpaws (.769). They also should tee off against an A's bullpen carrying a 5.51 ERA.
Twins starter Zebby Matthews owns a 6.17 road ERA and has allowed a 12.5 percent barrel rate. That’s in the bottom 5 percent of MLB. The Cubs’ last eight wins have come by two or more runs. Back Shota Imanaga and Chicago on the run line.
The surging Tigers have a realistic shot at a Wild Card, and they're not out of the division race either. They'll look to keep beating up on the lowly Angels behind consistent starter Casey Mize. He has a 1.00 WHIP and has given up two or fewer earned runs in 10 of 14 starts. The Angels counter with 23-year-old Ryan Johnson, who has served up nine homers in 33.1 innings. The team is 1-8 when Johnson starts.
Lefty Reid Detmers is 0-4 with a 4.77 ERA at home, and he allowed five homers in three starts leading up to the All-Star Break. Detroit brings a top-10 offense versus southpaws. The Tigers counter with Troy Melton, who has been dominant, and he's supported by a pen that has thrived lately. I like this price on the visitors.
Shota Imanaga dominated the Reds earlier this season. In his career, he’s 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA vs. Cincinnati. This is Hunter Greene’s second start since returning from elbow surgery. He was rocked in his return and figures to struggle Friday. Back the Cubs to win for the ninth time in 12 games.
Lowly Colorado has been feisty lately. The Rockies have won five of eight, with two of the losses coming to the Dodgers in their final at-bat. Starter Ryan Feltner has pitched well vs. the Giants twice, allowing two earned runs over 12 innings with 11 strikeouts. Back Colorado to at least be tied through five.