This is the third week in a row the Tulsa defense has faced a team with option concepts, and my prediction is that this week we will see better results than at the beginning of that run when Navy found the end zone five times. The Golden Hurricane will have their hands full with Army's high-powered offense, but it also should find plenty of success itself against a Black Knights defense that has been a little bit leaky in its two trips away from Michie Stadium.

This is a bad matchup for a Tulane defense that's struggling as the Green Wave welcome in a Memphis team that ranks in the top 10 in total offense (516.7 yards per game) and poses a dual-threat issue through the air with Marcus Stokes and on the ground with Jaylin Carter. The Tulane defense ranks 119th nationally in total defense and it's supported by an offense that's averaging less than 19 points per game. This may be a tough road spot on a Friday night, but Memphis is on another level and should be able to ride that offense to a comfortable win.

Oklahoma's offensive struggles are going to be an absolute feast for Texas' defensive front, which ranks 4th nationally averaging 3.75 sacks per game on the season. Even if Oklahoma's defense can keep Arch Manning and Co. in check there is going to be some point where those advantages tip the scales in the Longhorns' favor.

After eying totals, team totals and quarter/half spreads, the most correct pick for this pivotal Big Ten showdown seems to be the most obvious. While Kinnick Stadium can be a house of horrors for some, this Ohio State team is well-stocked to avoid some of those disasters that lead to road losses at Iowa. The Hawkeyes defense gave up 429 yards of offense to Michigan, and Ohio State is objectively an upgrade in terms of the challenge to limit their production. While special teams or turnovers are lurking around every corn-filled corner, the connection between Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith can stave off an upset alert.

This is the wrong spot for Oklahoma's offense to look for a get-right game, as Georgia's defense is playing with some real fire and Kirby Smart doesn't care too much for losing games in Sanford Stadium (58-5) or against unranked opponents (78-3). The Sooners are going to find it tough to score given their current offensive woes and though it may take a half eventually Gunner Stockton and the Bulldogs offense should be able to pull away for a multi-touchdown win.

I like Missouri's chances to get the Austin Simmons-powered passing game going against Kansas secondary and the Jayhawks' pour-it-out spot against a rival in a pivotal year for Lance Leipold. Last year's game was decided in the 70's (42-31) and featured big swings and three second half lead changes. Something similar could be brewing in Lawrence for this Friday night Border War showdown, and if so this total is too low.

Stanford could have its hands full with Miami's defensive front in a way that gives this game multiple paths to a cover. If Darian Mensah shows up sharp and locked into his new offense, then Miami will be poised to end the game early. But even if Mensah and some of the new starters on the offensive line take a few possessions to get settled the defense should provide enough of a floor to still allow for a large margin by the end of the game.

While Florida State has frequently fallen short of expectations during two straight underwhelming seasons, the Seminoles have still been flexing their muscles on this kind of stage. Mike Norvell's group has won by 31+ in 7 of 8 games against Group of Six/FCS foes since the start of 2022, and even with large spreads FSU carries a 5-3 ATS record in those spots. With job pressure peaking and some extra rest before Week 1's opener on Labor Day Monday, look for Florida State to pack a little extra punch into this Week Zero warm-up.

UConn’s resilience through injuries and deficits throughout this tournament echoes the call of Dan Hurley for his teams to show the heart of a champion in the postseason. Hurley is also 9-0 against the spread the last four years in the NCAA Tournament on a short turnaround spot (less than 48 hours to prep). The Huskies are going to face a tough foe in Michigan’s front line, but they are coming into the game after facing another team with size in Illinois and passing the test. In fact, UConn’s tournament run has included three single-digit seeds from the Big Ten with Michigan being the fourth, and the Huskies had a strong showing defensively against all three teams.

I think we are going to see a hot start in the second game of the night, as Michigan and Arizona can both get out in transition and can crash the glass to find easy points early. Even if three-pointers aren't falling, there are enough matchup opportunities to exploit on both sides to see some points scored early as each coach shows their schematic hand. The scoring could slow after halftime, bringing the full game total into question, but I think the track meet that's projected does play out for the first 20 minutes.

Illinois and UConn are both more than happy to play a game that’s mostly decided in the half court, and with the patience of the Huskies’ offense in particular there’s a good chance that this is a lower-possession game. The issue is that Illinois has been playing these kind of games and doing so at a high level, holding three straight opponents under 60 points and beating a pair of teams in Houston and Iowa that also play at a snail’s pace. The defensive improvement we’ve seen from Illinois should travel to Indianapolis, leading to a tough scoring night for the Huskies.

Rick Barnes is knocking on the door of a third-straight Elite Eight appearance and already has Tennessee in the Sweet 16 for a fourth straight season. The foundational pieces of his program, like offensive rebounding, are a huge part of neutral site tournament wins and that in particular is an X-factor in finding an edge against an elite and disruptive Iowa State defense that makes everything hard. Plus, while the Joshua Jefferson injury is likely baked into this spread already, his all-around excellence means no one player can fill the role entirely. Jefferson is Iowa State's second-leading scorer (16.4 PPG), yes, but he’s also second on the team in assists (4.8 APG) and leads the team in rebounds (7.4 RPG).

Arizona seems to be good for 90 points in this matchup, because even if Arkansas pulls off the upset it seems unlikely the Hogs are well-positioned to get a lot of stops. Teams have been scoring well into the 80s with some regularity and most of those squads do not have the offensive ceiling of Arizona, not to mention the potential mismatches the Wildcats pose with their skilled bigs on the interior. Arkansas' two-point defense has been a statistical liability in the last 10 games, but they've good enough offensively to overcome it with a 9-1 record in that stretch. That's the Darius Acuff effect, and why we're just focused on Arizona's offensive in this matchup.

It did not look like a neutral site at all in Oklahoma City as “Go Big Red” chants rang out across a red-clad Paycom Center for Nebraska’s first-ever NCAA Tournament win. Since the nature of the victory was a slow, cruising coronation I’m not expecting too much of an emotional hangover or letdown for the Cornhuskers, who were very much in rhythm on offense and knocked down 14 three-pointers in the win. I would not be surprised at all to see plenty of big swings and lead changes throughout the game, but at the end of 40 minutes I think the Cornhuskers to move on to the Sweet 16 so I’ll take the value of a couple points as an underdog.

There is not a favorable recent history for how these mid-bracket double-digit seeds fair in the second round. But this pick is less about fading VCU after its dramatic comeback win against North Carolina than it is a tip of the cap to how Illinois handles these situations against non-conference opponents. Thursday’s first round win against Penn was Illinois’ first non-conference game since Dec. 29, but the 35-point win followed in the footsteps of how the Illini performed against mid-major competition all season. Now, VCU is certainly not playing like a median mid-major team right now at all, but it’s hard to imagine the same Rams team that was down 19 points to UNC being in form enough to keep pace with Illinois’ offense.