Chip's Picks (2 Live)
Chip's Past Picks
The epic clash of the nation’s best offense against the nation’s best defense will go the way of the bucket-getters. Iowa State’s aggressive defensive pressure sometimes leaves open looks and that’s where Illinois can make them pay. The Fighting Illini have enough dangerous shooters to do that and so I love catching two points with a team I think is going to win.
Statistically, Clemson turned in one of its best defensive performances of the season in its 77-56 win against New Mexico. I credit Brad Brownell for getting the Tigers locked in for the challenge but I’m not ready to say this is all of the sudden a lockdown defensive team. Both of these teams can score at an extremely high level and with Baylor already having some issues defensively I think we see a back-and-forth that keeps the game competitive down the stretch with plenty of buckets to help take us over the total.
I think the Dukes are live to win outright and certainly a strong play on a three-possession spread. JMU may be undersized, but they overcame those weaknesses against Wisconsin and can do it again against Duke. This is a group that’s playing with a ton of confidence as they dispel the notion that a schedule strength rating should downgrade a team that has won 32 games this season.
It was not surprising to see Marquette get off to a slow start with Tyler Kolek’s return, as the team to adjust to his absence and then get back in rhythm with him back in the lineup. But what we saw from Marquette in the second half of its first round win was much closer to the form that earned them a top 2 seed. Colorado, meanwhile, is playing its third game in four days and just poured it out in a track meet against Florida.
Ducks have a way to neutralize Ryan Kalkbrenner a little bit with star big man N’Faly Dante, and there’s enough perimeter versatility to think Oregon can be disruptive on the perimeter. If the Jays can’t get into the flow of their offense they are more than beatable, and this is a 50-50 game to me. That’s value on the dog.
The Cyclones have not let up on the gas at all from their Big 12 Tournament tear, and their top gear is more than capable of putting together another double-digit win. Washington State stormed back after Drake left the door open late in the second half, and Iowa State isn’t the kind of team that would let that happen.
I was surprised, but not shocked, to see Kansas muster a strong performance after hearing a week of doubt that they could match their regular season form without Kevin McCullar Jr. in the lineup. But the Jayhawks almost let an impressive start go to waste as Samford came roaring back only to fall short in controversial fashion. Gonzaga, on the other hand, put an end to trendy upset talk immediately and stayed on the gas in its runaway win against McNeese. The Bulldogs are healthier and have been a more consistent team in recent weeks, so that’s the team to trust when it comes to getting the motor going again on a quick turnaround.
Iowa State's top gear is extremely dangerous, as we saw in their thrashing of 1-seed Houston in the Big 12 title game, and I think the Cyclones will be able to get to that top gear against a South Dakota State team that relies mostly on being good shooters. The problem with that against Iowa State is their defense doesn't allow easy shots. Iowa State's ball pressure will be impactful in a major way and I think it's a game the Cyclones can win by 20.
Colorado State head coach Niko Medved had his team dialed on Tuesday night in Dayton, and it's important to note the Rams were not just beneficiaries of Virginia's awful offense in their dominant win. That was a high level of efficiency for Colorado State against a well-coached Wahoos defense, and that will be important against Texas given the Longhorns ability to fill it up offensively. Texas presents challenges to any team on its roster with its wealth of scoring options, but the inconsistency of performance is why they are a 7-seed with 12 losses on the season. Give me the team in rhythm to keep it close or pick up the win.
Nevada laid a little bit of an egg defensively against Colorado State during its one-and-done showing in the Mountain West Tournament, and I'm expecting that disappointment will have them dialed in against a talented Dayton team. The Wolf Pack closed the regular season strong with 10 wins in their final 11, while Dayton saw its performance tail off a little bit over the final month of the season.
I don't think South Carolina will have enough adequate answers inside facing Oregon big man N'Faly Dante. This is a Gamecocks team that may be reduced to shooting 3's over the Ducks' defense, and as a 33.5% three-point shooting team I think that's a scenario Dana Altman would sign up for. Ducks' keep it rolling after claiming the Pac-12 title in Las Vegas.
The core of Michigan State's roster has played in, and won, some huge games of consequence. The issue and why they are in the 8-9 game is that they didn't play close enough to their ceiling to avoid catching a lot of losses on a difficult schedule. I think this game will be low-scoring, defensive and physical with each rebound being a war. The difference will be that Michigan State has two offensive playmakers in AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker who can and have made big shots in the biggest games.
N'Faly Dante's return from midgame injury was also reportedly paired with a fiery hafltime speech for his teammates, and when Oregon's best player is motivated like he's been here in March the Ducks are a dangerous team. Dante had 14 points, 10 rebounds and four blocks in the come-from-behind upset, and I think his hot streak continues leading Oregon to the verge of an NCAA Tournament bid.