BYU's defense has taken a bit of a nose dive in conference play, giving up 76 points or more in eight of the Cougars' 10 games against Big 12 competition. And since I would not grade Baylor as an elite defensive team, particularly matched up against AJ Dybantsa and a high-octane BYU offense in bounce back mode, getting over this total should not be a problem.
BYU's offensive identity is built on high-volume three-point shooting; they rank in the top 5 nationally in 3-Point Attempt Rate. Baylor's defense ranks 113th in eFG% defense and struggles specifically defending the 3-point arch (ranked 222nd). For a team like BYU, which thrives on spacing and ball movement, Baylor's defensive scheme is a matchup nightmare. Baylor ranks 44th overall in KenPom, driven largely by a defense that has fallen off a cliff. This creates a massive opportunity for BYU, which ranks 22nd overall with the 10th-best offense in the country. The Cougars are coming off a loss to Houston, where they shot just 41% from the field. I'm looking to buy low after their 0-8 ATS slump and four consecutive straight-up losses.
