Past Picks
Tottenham have had a horrendous season. They're currently 17th on the table, at at this point they only have one goal in mind. They want to survive relegation. This is the only thing that matters for Spurs going into the final matchday. A win or a draw here is the only way to guarantee safety, and I expect them to push for all three points and multiple goals knowing how poor their defense has been. Everton have nothing to play for here, an I expect Spurs to take advantage of that.
This Premier League season has been a disaster for these two clubs as they enter the last matchday. Both sides will be relegated this season, as Burnley sit with 21 points over 37 matches and Wolves sit with 19 over 37. While this game essentially doesn't matter, Burnley will take pride in giving their fans one last show at home as a thank you for all the support. I expect Burnley to take this game more seriously than Wolves for their fans. I also can't ignore the fact that Wolves have played 18 games on the road this season, and have won zero. Not a single win on the road for Wolves, and I don't see that changing.
We are 19th! That's all that is at stake in this one Sunday with both clubs set for relegation regardless. Wolverhampton has not won a single road match all season with seven total goals scored -- and hasn't scored in its past three away -- is really all this is. Burnley has all of two wins at home. A scoreless draw probably would be fitting.
West Ham desperately need a win. Three points would give them a chance to stave off relegation, and while Leeds have been strong overall, they have been living dangerously in recent matches. They conceded over 3.0 xG to Brighton and were lucky those chances were not punished. In a do-or-die spot, West Ham should be the side capable of capitalizing. At a comfortable price, I’m backing the home team.
Liverpool’s recent results have been poor, but they could still finish fourth in the Premier League if they win this game. They've won all four of their home games against Brentford since the Bees were promoted to the top division in 2021, which bodes well. Brentford have a poor away record this season – 10 defeats in 18 away games – so backing Liverpool to win at -120 looks like a great option.
The smarter bet here is to take Spurs DC (Double Chance) or Spurs +.5 goals on the spread. The more fun plus numbers play is to sprinkle Spurs DNB. Chelsea are the better side, but are in the worse position for this match. Chelsea will be on exhausted legs after playing Manchester City to an exhausting 1-0 loss in the FA Cup final just a few short days ago. On top of being more tired, they're expected at the moment to be missing Joao Pedro, who is arguably their best player this season. That combine with Spurs desperate motivation to avoid the dreaded drop makes me think that Spurs will keep this much closer than people are expecting.
I'm already on Bourenmouth for the .75 goal spread, but let's go one step further for the sprinkle. On one side we have a Bournemouth side who are on one of the largest unbeaten streaks in the Premier League, fighting for a spot in UCL. On the other side, we have a Manchester City side who has already won two trophies, but who also looked exhausted in their last fixture against Chelsea. The lack of rest not only in between games, but also before the World Cup has City players desperate for a break. I expect the Cherries to play them extremely physically, and give them hell for 90 minutes.
After a rather controversial finish, West Ham dropped a massive three points against Arsenal with their equalizing goal being pulled back by VAR in the 90+8 minute. While that was a massive drop for West Ham, it really, really, REALLY helps Tottenham out. Spurs are now a point ahead of West Ham and the relegation zone, with a game now in hand. Leeds on paper have nothing to play for as they are safe, but Spurs have everything to play for. Winning this match, could very well be the decider in if they stay up or not, so as poor as they've been, expect them to pull together for this match.
I’m not exactly sure who we think this West Ham team is. They are getting a ton of respect in the market because it’s a “must-win” game. Well, newsflash, it’s a must-win game for Arsenal, too. West Ham are fighting to stay up, while Arsenal are fighting for a title. At this price, I’d take Arsenal over West Ham a million times on Sunday. Let’s not forget, this is the same West Ham side that basically quit in the 70th minute last week. That team has shown no spine, and this is a spot where Arsenal can exploit it.
It’s been fun to watch Andoni Iraola get the most out of Bournemouth. It’s unfortunate that he is leaving at the end of the season, but it’s clear he is trying to secure the highest finish in club history before he goes. Sitting sixth, Bournemouth are firmly in a European spot and have been one of the best in-form teams in the league. They are unbeaten in their last 16 matches and now face a Fulham side that has been inconsistent and has lacked quality service in the final third. I’m backing Bournemouth to avoid defeat. If they win, we cash. If it ends in a draw, we get our money back, and I’m perfectly fine with that.
This looks like a great opportunity for Liverpool to return to winning ways. The Reds are in the doldrums after losing 3-2 to fierce rivals Man United last weekend. That brought their three-game winning streak to an end, but they're still fourth in the Premier League table. Liverpool's home record is strong, with 10 wins from 16 games this season. Meanwhile, Chelsea have slipped down to ninth in the table following a six-game losing streak. The Blues still don't have a manager after firing Liam Rosenior on April 22, and they look rudderless right now.
Currently, Spurs are sitting in the relegation zone, two points behind West Ham. They have 34 points in 34 games. They have four matches left to make something happen, and to avoid one of the most embarrassing relegations in EPL history. The problem is, their next game is against and Aston Villa side, playing at Villa park, who need points. I am shocked this is plus odds. Spurs have been horrendous for months, and Aston Villa have been monsters at home all season long. Not only, do I have Aston Villa winning this game, but I have them doing it by more than one goal. This is a wild line. Full unit for me!
I probably should stop pressing my luck (stop, stop, whammy!) after a 2-0 morning in the EPL so will limit this to a half but may as well ride the gravy train while it lasts. Villa is playing for Europe next season and Spurs to not be relegated. The visitors are missing a ton of guys due to injury and the like. Penultimate home game of the season for Villa, which has been slumping but would be pretty safe for Europe with a win.
Whomever invented Draw No Bet -- and I actually did look but could not find a definitive answer -- is my uncomfortable hug buddy. You know, wanna lean in but that'd be weird. Feels like a super-generous price here. Major European qually on the line. United won the reverse in October and weren't even good then. May well draw but I don't see a loss.
Newcastle stink right now. They have lost five straight, and it feels like Eddie Howe is running out of answers. This turns into a must-win spot for them, but it is hard to trust this team in its current form. Brighton, on the other hand, come into this match beaming with confidence, having won four of their last five. Newcastle have also struggled badly in this matchup, winning just two of their last 17 meetings with Brighton.