Past Picks
I was looking at this regardless but then I saw the excellent Martin Green played it, and that clinched for me. Everton was good to us earlier this week vs. Wolves in the EFL Cup. Newly promoted Ipswich Town, which sounds like a sandwich spread that I absolutely refuse to eat even if starving (welcome to my growing up Spam nightmare), has been pretty good so far but is coming back to earth a bit in allowing a whopping 13 goals in its past four in all competitions if my math is right. But I forgot to convert to pound sterling perhaps ...
Everton have made an unbeaten start to the new season, with three wins and three draws from six games in all competitions. They should be able to grind out another win when they host newly promoted Ipswich at the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Saturday. Ipswich have been involved in a lot of high-scoring games so far this season, but they could struggle to break down Everton’s stubborn defense. The Toffees don't have a great deal of firepower, but Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Tyrique George, Jack Grealish, and Thierno Barry should lead their team to a narrow victory.
I'll be honest in that I fancy a draw here but would never bet on that result. It's the first league match of the season at Elland Road under the lights. Both teams have found the net in all five of their overall matches this term. Leeds has avoided loss in 11 of its past 12 league games dating to last season. Newcastle was pegged to struggle under new manager Matthias Jaissle but also yet to lose in EPL play. The Magpies have allowed the most shots in the league (61), however.
Excited to see the Premier League back -- did well on that last season. Think I prefer Euro soccer now to college basketball, which is dumbfounding. Two years ago Sevy needs to slap current Sevy. Yes I am talking in first person to make a point. Spurs looked wretched in their EPL opener but then terrific in trouncing some team I never heard of that sounds like a pack of smokes in the Carabao Cup. I'm not sure I expect this to win, honestly, but if I get a reasonable DNB price (like a cupcake covered in cherries with a shot of Jager love it so much) on a home team I'm probably taking it and just let the cards fall where they may.
Some of our other books are already at the -225 range for this Saturday Premier League match so I'll grab it now. It's the home opener for Bournemouth, which pushed Man City to the limit in the season opener away. The Cherries haven't lost their home opener (4W, 4D) since 2017. They own more wins over Everton all-time with nine than any other EPL foe. The Toffees, meanwhile, are winless in eight at Bournemouth (two draws) and have dropped their first EPL road game each of the past four seasons -- blanked in three.
People are scared to bet on Manchester City right now, and I understand that. They're going through a bit of a rebuild this season and are without multiple key figures like Rodri, and their manager Pep. While this team does need to find their identity, this is still a Haaland led team taking on an abysmal Crystal Palace. It might not be their usual 4-0 kind of stomping, but City are more than good enough to pick up three points and a couple goals along the way.
Liverpool should make a winning start to the new season under new manager Andoni Iraola. Newcastle are rebuilding after manager Eddie Howe left in the summer, along with captain Bruno Guimarães, fellow midfielder Sandro Tonali, winger Anthony Gordon, and veteran full-back Kieran Trippier. They could struggle in the opening weeks of the season, and Liverpool have a lot of firepower in their ranks, so the Reds look well priced to secure an away win.
Thank you Brentford for the profitable start to the Premier League on Saturday. Aston Villa finished fourth last season but lost second-leading scorer Morgan Rogers (10G, 6A) to Chelsea. And leading scorer Ollie Watkins (16G, 3A) is out amid a push from Al Hilal to get him as Watkins apparently wants to go. Villa's big offseason addition was Johan Manzambi, but he's not fit from a World Cup injury. So really BHA by default, and home teams in their openers have been cashing for us. The Seagulls are unbeaten in four this season: three friendlies and a Conference League qualifier.
Good start to the European season Sunday with a La Liga cash and the Premier League kicks off next weekend -- that was my best league a season ago. Tottenham barely avoided relegation in 2025-26 and has a new manager, while Brentford finished ninth in the table. The sides drew at Brentford last season. Spurs have a few player availability concerns (Xavi Simons, Wilson Odobert and Dejan Kulusevski among them) even in an opener.
This is, for me, the match of the weekend. Ipswich pretty much copied Sunderland's plan that helped them find success last season. They spent over 200 million dollars of transfers and took out some big names from Ligue 1. This is a team that looks like they're not planning on just trying to survive, but to thrive in the Premier League. My hot take is they'll finish top 10 (+1500) if you're interested! But I don't see them starting their season with a loss. Draw and a push worst case!
Nottingham Forest lost Elliot Anderson to Manchester City, and there’s no doubt he’ll be difficult to replace. Still, bringing in Oliver Glasner feels like a managerial upgrade, and there is plenty of talent throughout this midfield and attack. Forest are also a completely different team at home. Defensively, they can be vulnerable, but the City Ground remains a difficult place to play. Leeds won just two away matches all of last season while averaging only 1.04 goals per game. I don’t necessarily need Forest to win outright here, either. Getting them on a draw no bet gives us some protection while backing the more talented team in a strong home spot.
Tottenham have had a horrendous season. They're currently 17th on the table, at at this point they only have one goal in mind. They want to survive relegation. This is the only thing that matters for Spurs going into the final matchday. A win or a draw here is the only way to guarantee safety, and I expect them to push for all three points and multiple goals knowing how poor their defense has been. Everton have nothing to play for here, an I expect Spurs to take advantage of that.
This Premier League season has been a disaster for these two clubs as they enter the last matchday. Both sides will be relegated this season, as Burnley sit with 21 points over 37 matches and Wolves sit with 19 over 37. While this game essentially doesn't matter, Burnley will take pride in giving their fans one last show at home as a thank you for all the support. I expect Burnley to take this game more seriously than Wolves for their fans. I also can't ignore the fact that Wolves have played 18 games on the road this season, and have won zero. Not a single win on the road for Wolves, and I don't see that changing.
We are 19th! That's all that is at stake in this one Sunday with both clubs set for relegation regardless. Wolverhampton has not won a single road match all season with seven total goals scored -- and hasn't scored in its past three away -- is really all this is. Burnley has all of two wins at home. A scoreless draw probably would be fitting.
West Ham desperately need a win. Three points would give them a chance to stave off relegation, and while Leeds have been strong overall, they have been living dangerously in recent matches. They conceded over 3.0 xG to Brighton and were lucky those chances were not punished. In a do-or-die spot, West Ham should be the side capable of capitalizing. At a comfortable price, I’m backing the home team.