The Bison have done well vs. FBS teams as an FCS power, but now move up to the big leagues. This is a good Jacksonville State team that has won at least 9 games in each of them, winning Conference USA twice and playing in three bowl games. The Gamecocks return one of the best dual-threat QBs in Caden Creel and slow the game down with their rushing attack, ranking top-5 nationally in rushing attempts per game last 3 years.
North Dakota State has done well in recent games versus FBS foes, going 6-2 SU with narrow defeats to Colorado and Arizona. Still, it's a big step up from the FCS level. Jacksonville State made the leap and has shined, having reached a bowl in all three seasons with two wins. The Gamecocks also claimed a CUSA title. No doubt the Bison crowd will be ignited for this landmark game, but laying a TD against an established FBS member seems a bit much.
Jacksonville State has been FBS since 2023, so their roster is a bit more built for the depth necessary in that regard. It's not to discredit NDSU who is making their first foray into FBS ball, as they've been known as giant killers forever. I trust the run game and defensive experience on the Gamecocks side of things to keep this one close in the Fargo Dome.
North Dakota State opened as a 10-point home favorite in early June against Jacksonville State, and the spread is -6.5 now. This will be North Dakota State's first game as an FBS team after dominating the lower level with a 51-7 record in the FCS tournament. Jacksonville State made the same jump just a couple of years ago. There's going to be no drop-off from the Bison who went 9-5 against FBS foes. They're led by senior quarterback Nathan Hayes, who was the backup on last year's 12-1 team. North Dakota State is a quarterback factory, and this is a team that could actually win the Mountain West Conference in their first year. North Dakota State by 20 in this game.
I held off betting this game at first because my numbers aren't close to the line. I make North Dakota State -3.5 at home. The only time I have that large of a discrepancy is the first few weeks of CBB where there are 360 teams. It almost never happens in football. I expect North Dakota State to be a bowl team in its first FBS season but they are a little overvalued here. Jacksonville State returns nine starters from last season's 9-5 team, including dual-threat QB Caden Creel. I expect a competitive, close game throughout, so I'll grab the seven points with Jacksonville State now that the number has dipped to 6.5 at some books.
