It's now four straight wins for Miami vs. SEC opposition after taking out Texas A&M on December 20 before KOing Ohio State in the quarterfinals at Arlington. Ole Miss and Patrick Mahomes-like Trinidad Chambliss will provide the next test tonight in Glendale, but the Canes have future NFL players on their DL, especially Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor, reflected in a Denver Broncos-like 46 sacks this season for the Miami defense. While Chambliss looked magical last week vs. Georgia, the Bulldogs still managed 34 points, and this should be a chance for Carson Beck and the Miami offense to move a bit more freely than when playing it close to the vest the first two rounds. Play Miami-Fla (Fiesta Bowl at Glendale)

Initial expectation was that Ole Miss' us-against-the-world mentality would fizzle out after its first-round win. Could not have been more incorrect seeing the way it went up and down the field against Georgia. The Rebels have somehow overcome the coaching distraction with Trinidad Chambliss fully establishing himself as perhaps the most electirc player in these playoffs. Ole Miss should stand up better against Miami's defensive front than the Hurricanes' first two opponents, and it's tough to see how UM has enough firepower to match the underdogs shot-for-shot. Playing Ole Miss and the points -- with a sprinkle on an outright victory and the under (if so inclined) -- is the best move.

We've got Miami (12-2) from the ACC against Mississippi (13-1) from the SEC in the Fiesta Bowl, and my main issue is that Miami didn't even win the ACC or participate in the championship game, thanks to losses at SMU and the home loss to Louisville, which also didn't make the ACC championship game. Why do we have conference championship games? Miami has won the last six games, and their defense all of a sudden came out against Texas A&M and Ohio State, but I think that team is somewhere in the locker room that allowed 26 points to SMU. Overall, Mississippi is the better team and will prove it tonight.

What happens when a powerful offense clashes with a powerful defense? In this case, the D prevails. Miami has yielded a microscopic 9.7 ppg during its six-game win streak. While QB Trinidad Chambliss is a major headache for any defense, the Hurricanes can contain him. They have notched a dozen sacks in the playoffs. The 'Canes offense won't knock anyone's socks off, but QB Carson Beck is playing error-free, with no picks in the postseason. Ole Miss loses two position coaches to LSU this week. On the surface, that is repairable, but their departure and the near-departures of both coordinators is an unwanted distraction at crunch time.

The old saying "defense wins championships" might still apply. The Canes certainly think so after keeping Texas A&M and Ohio State in check through two rounds of the playoffs. To wit: Miami didn't allow at TD to either for more than 6 Qs of playoff action before the Buckeyes finally got on the board. Granted, chasing Reb QB Trinidad Chambliss for 60 minutes will be a chore, but the Canes have various future NFL performers like Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor collapsing pockets while pressuring enemy QBs, and helping Miami register a Denver Broncos-like 46 sacks. As Carson Beck and the Miami offense have played it patiently and leaned on the defense, clearing 52 points might be a chore. Play Miami-Ole Miss Under.

My primary position on this game is Ole Miss at +4.5, which is not available on the site. I also have 0.25u on the moneyline at +150, as I have Ole Miss winning 47% of simulations, which gives us a sim line of +113. Miami’s defensive front is elite, but I think Ole Miss’s tempo and the controlled chaos of Trinidad Chambliss can give Miami trouble when they are unable to make defensive substitutions at key moments, particularly as the game goes on.

The more I break down this game, the more I think it's going to be razor tight into the fourth quarter. If that's the case, I give Ole Miss the slight edge with Trinidad Chambliss. He was the best player on the field against Georgia and it turned out to be the difference in the game. Carson Beck hasn't needed to do much in the playoffs and Miami should once again have success running the football against an Ole Miss defense allowing 151 rushing yards per game. However, I think this is a field goal game either way, so I'll back the Rebels at +3.5.

As someone with annual Fiesta Bowl tickets, I was thrilled at the possibility of an Ohio State-Georgia semifinal game on Thursday night. But Miami’s domination of the line of scrimmage against the Buckeyes and Trinidad Chambliss’ theatrics vs. the Bulldogs changed that. This game should be a barn burner regardless, but I lean towards the Hurricanes for two reasons: Their physicality against Texas A&M and Ohio State was superior, plus the continuing uncertainty around the Rebels’ coaching staff can be a distraction. Interesting streaks on the line here: Ole Miss has scored 30+ points in eight straight games, while Miami hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in regulation all season. Give me the Hurricanes, 28-21.

Thanks to my cohort Jeff Hochman for alerting me these lines became active. I went and looked earlier and they weren't. I would probably root for Ole Miss in almost any other circumstance with all those players have dealt with and now some assistants might have to leave for LSU during the playoff!? That ain't right man. And I think Lane Kiffin keeps getting bonuses with their wins. So wrong. Obviously biased but Ole Miss is not as good as Ohio State or probably Texas A&M and the U handled both. I wish the Bears could get Rueben Bain Jr. as that dude is a wrecking ball. Although Michael Irvin needs to tone it down a notch on the sidelines. Take a Xanax.

Ole Miss battled Georgia, with both teams exceeding 70 plays—a significant amount of time on the field for both units. The schedule did the Rebels no favors by scheduling this game for Thursday instead of Friday. Miami has advantages in point differential, third-down defense, red zone offense and defense, run defense, opponent passer rating, net yards per pass defense, and sack differential. Against fellow bowl opponents, the Hurricanes hold the edge in net yards per play, net yards per rush, net yards per pass, and net yards per point on both offense and defense. Miami controlled the line of scrimmage vs Ohio State; this is repeatable against Ole Miss. If you find -2.5 at -115 or better, consider making it a 1-unit play.