Georgia was as high as 6.5 points favorite, but the line continues to fall in the Rebels favor. Ole Miss’ defense needs to disrupt Carson Beck who has struggled at times, throwing 11 interceptions on the season, despite his team being 7-1 SU. When SEC teams have played this season, the underdog is 29-13 ATS this season.

Georgia has gotten into the CFP picture with defense, third-best statistically in the SEC. As for Ole Miss, you wouldn't know it from some of its scores, but the Rebels are adept at tackling, too. This total could stay low if Bulldogs QB Carson Beck cannot find a cure for his interception-itis. Given Beck's issues, predicted rain could compel the Bulldogs to limit its throwing. Same with Ole Miss, the league leader in passing but likely to scale back in wet conditions.

There is a 93% of rain in Oxford during the game. The weather and the stakes should make for a lower scoring game. Carson Beck won’t toss 3 ints and short field and big plays will be at a premium. Under

Kirby Smart's Georgia clubs have historically dominated SEC opponents not named Alabama, and they rolled to a 52-17 win last year in this matchup. QB Carson Beck's INTs are a concern but, if he can play mistake-free and the Georgia defense takes hold, the Bulldogs should be in good shape. We liked Georgia out of principle at +170 vs. Texas, and this near pick'em price against a non-Alabama SEC opponent is also a value-rich take.

Georgia is 7-1 this season but they've only covered two games. It seems like they've been rated too high in each of their games especially the last five were Carson Beck has thrown 11 interceptions. But that's just it. Georgia is so much better than everybody that they make up for the interceptions from their quarterback and I think that's what's going to happen against Mississippi where Georgia is only -2.5. Georgia has one loss to Alabama and Mississippi has two losses to LSU and Kentucky. The last time Mississippi beat Georgia was 2016 and I don't think they're as strong as that team. Georgia for the win.

These teams are giving up a combined 31 points per game, including the Rebels, who have surrendered an average of 10 PPG at home this season. A fun stat here to consider: in Lane Kiffin’s home games coached since 2012, the under is 42-21 (67%). And it's not as if Carson Beck is playing well for Georgia; he's thrown eight interceptions over his last three games. I might even be too high on this score prediction considering the strength of these defenses, but the under still hits: Ole Miss 27, Georgia 23.