Past Picks
The Terps had a lot of success against the Bucknell on the glass in their home. They may not be able to control the glass as much against a revamped Hoyas team with 7’1 Vince Iwuchukwuin the middle. Georgetown brought in a lot of good pieces, maybe not the big names like the Terps, but this is a competitive roster. Maryland will face a much better defense than they saw in their opener and the Hoyas have the better coach in this matchup which can help get the crowd involved.
FanDuel. I'm playing Utah State -23.5 on the opener at FanDuel. It's an awful spot for Omaha: playing at BYU late Friday, then traveling to face the Aggies Saturday afternoon. Utah State is rested after blowing out Idaho State in the opener. I expect the Aggies to run a tired Omaha team off the floor at home. I make the number -27.5. Play up to 25.5 for one unit.
Feels like a tough spot for 0-2 Toledo as it just played Thursday at Michigan State and now has to go to West Virginia less than 48 hours later for a nothing game? One of the Rockets' leading returners was big man Austin Parks, who averaged 10.7 points and 5.6 rebounds. He got hurt during the opener and not expected back today. Marshall obliterated another MAC school in Buffalo in the opener on Monday and has been sitting and practicing since for only Toledo. Sure sets up well. The model has Herd by 11.
FanDuel. Queens is in a tough spot, playing its third game in five days. The Royals won the first two by scoring a combined 199 points. That's the good news. The bad news is Queens allowed 193 points to Winthrop and Loyola Marymount. The Royals are stepping up in class against an Oklahoma State squad with a star-studded recruiting class and a highly rated transfer haul. The Cowboys are my Big 12 sleeper, and I think they hang 100 points on Friday night. Queens struggled when facing bigger schools last season, losing six games to Villanova, Virginia, Wake Forest, Arkansas, Auburn, and Purdue by an average of 31 points. I think Oklahoma State rolls at home. Play anything under -21 for a Half Unit.
Power conference schools that have an easy laid out schedule, raises a red flag in my eyes ATS-wise. Northwestern has seven home games, and three neutral site games to begin the season. They will not go on the road until December 12th against Michigan. That can lead to a few flat spots, and tonight look for Stony Brook to be hungry for an upset. After a 26 point opening night win against Binghamton, the Wildcats get challenged to a degree tonight. Grab the points with Stony Brook.
Robbie Avila will be in uniform tonight for the Billikens. Missouri has the size advantage, second tallest team in the country. The Tigers have a lot of offensive firepower more so than last season. Saint Louis also has a lot of offensive weapons, returning most of their team from last season. Saint Louis has the better continuity, chemistry, and has the guard play that can take advantage of the Tigers size through their cuts and distribution.
This game was a nice slap in the face to remind myself I am not betting college basketball lookahead games this season if ever again -- short of ahead-of knowledge. For one thing, guys are often ruled out or in about an hour before tip. And the lines just go crazy. I was looking at Rice last night, but the Owls were nearly -200. No idea why this plummeted. ETAM returns just one player who appeared in a game last season for a team that went 11-21 and finished 11th in the Southland. Rice, an American Conference program, returns seven letterwinners and two starters from last year's squad. The model apparently is confused, too, as it has Rice by 13.
A team that was never .500 a season ago has a chance to be 2-0 on the year in Albany. In fact, they did not have a win against a division one school in non-conference play until December 17th in 2025. Expect Manhattan to have some early rust after facing top competition against Kentucky in their first matchup. The better skilled team in Manhattan but the cover goes to Albany.
Typically in a matchup you are not going to get a bigger spread offered with a road favorite, than the outcome a season ago. Yet that is the case as Howard beat Alcorn State by just eight points at home in 2025. With a loss in their first game against against Yale, look for Howard to play with a sense of urgency at the start of tonight’s matchup. They get the win and cover this time against the Braves.
This is a rivalry that not many know about as these two schools are only 16 miles away from one another. Since UMass Lowell came to D-1, these teams have met five times with the River Hawks winning three of them and their largest loss coming by six points. The Warriors stay in games with their defense but their offense is always a work in progress and below average. Mass Lowell has more depth and better scorers to keep this within the number.
This could be a similar North Florida team like we saw last season. They’ll shoot a ton of threes and play very little defense. The Ospreys don’t have much size which will hurt their ability to get second chance opportunities unless they just bomb threes, most likely, and get longer boards. Cal Baptist had a lot roster turnover from last year and might not be as dominate on the boards. The Lancers strength is with their guard play, who can also shoot from downtown.
FanDuel. Jumping on Missouri right away at -23.5 for one unit. I make the Tigers -27.5 here. Cleveland State has an entirely new roster, made up mostly of freshmen and smaller school transfers. It could be a long season for the Vikings, and Missouri usually kills these teams at home early in the year. I think the Tigers roll. Play up to 25.5.
Similar to last season, Hampton brought in a bunch of players that can score. They’re a score first team that plays little defense. The Yellow Jackets welcome in a new coach that wants to push the pace all game and have new guards to do so. Georgia Tech has always struggled to defend the him but not sure that’ll be the case against the Pirates as this could turn into a transitional game with a lot of perimeter shots.
FanDuel. I was hoping for +7, but I don't think we'll get there. Illinois State is one of the few Mid-Major teams with key players actually coming back for another season. Three starters return, headlined by Chase Walker (17.7 PPG) and Johnny Kinziger (11.5 PPG). Saint Mary's is starting over with a first-time head coach and a completely re-tooled roster. The Gaels do still have some talent, although with so many changes, it might take a few games for everything to come together. I expect a tight game here, so I'll back Illinois State +6.5 for a Half Unit.
The rare early-season college basketball play for me. The last two years, we've seen scores of 57-54 and 69-65 in this neutral site matchup and that's with Arizona having averaged 82.5 and 86.2 points per game. I expect my Wildcats to play at a bit slower pace early this season and be more stout defensively led by preseason All-American Mo Krivas at center. Obviously picking early season games is tricky but give me Arizona to win 74-66 in Las Vegas and this one stays under by ten points.