Expert Picks
This line has plummeted for some reason. ...
This could be a similar North Florida team like we saw last season. They’ll shoot a ton of threes and play very little defense. The Ospreys don’t have much size which will hurt their ability to get second chance opportunities unless they just bomb threes, most likely, and get longer boards. Cal Baptist had a lot roster turnover from last year and might not be as dominate on the boards. The Lancers strength is with their guard play, who can also shoot from downtown.
FanDuel. Jumping on Missouri right away at -23.5 for one unit. I make the Tigers -27.5 here. Cleveland State has an entirely new roster, made up mostly of freshmen and smaller school transfers. It could be a long season for the Vikings, and Missouri usually kills these teams at home early in the year. I think the Tigers roll. Play up to 25.5.
Similar to last season, Hampton brought in a bunch of players that can score. They’re a score first team that plays little defense. The Yellow Jackets welcome in a new coach that wants to push the pace all game and have new guards to do so. Georgia Tech has always struggled to defend the him but not sure that’ll be the case against the Pirates as this could turn into a transitional game with a lot of perimeter shots.
FanDuel. I was hoping for +7, but I don't think we'll get there. Illinois State is one of the few Mid-Major teams with key players actually coming back for another season. Three starters return, headlined by Chase Walker (17.7 PPG) and Johnny Kinziger (11.5 PPG). Saint Mary's is starting over with a first-time head coach and a completely re-tooled roster. The Gaels do still have some talent, although with so many changes, it might take a few games for everything to come together. I expect a tight game here, so I'll back Illinois State +6.5 for a Half Unit.
The rare early-season college basketball play for me. The last two years, we've seen scores of 57-54 and 69-65 in this neutral site matchup and that's with Arizona having averaged 82.5 and 86.2 points per game. I expect my Wildcats to play at a bit slower pace early this season and be more stout defensively led by preseason All-American Mo Krivas at center. Obviously picking early season games is tricky but give me Arizona to win 74-66 in Las Vegas and this one stays under by ten points.
Ohio is a team that has lost each of their last four matchups against Sun Belt teams. They were also a team that started slow with a 1-6 record, and ended the year with four straight losses. Expect the staff and key returning players in Javan Simmons and Jackson Paveletzke to play with a chip on their shoulder in game one. They take down the Jaguars in game one.
Caesars. Half Unit for the first CBB pick of the season. Both teams have new rosters, but I like the players the Bulls added a little more. In 2026, this is obviously more of a personal projection. We won't know about 99% of these teams until we see how all the new pieces fit together. Both teams will play fast here and shoot a ton of threes. The difference is I think UB has the better guards. I make the Bulls -1, so I will back them at +3 for a half unit. The five-month grind with no sleep and two more ulcers is underway!
Not thrilled going against Thomas Casale but our model has Marshall by 10 points, while Haslem and ESPN BPI by about four points each. Is a true home game. The Herd are 27-7 at home in Coach Corny Jackson's two seasons. Preseason All-SBC First Team member Noah Otshudi is back. Buffalo, meanwhile, returns just 42 of its 2,497 points scored last season.
Columbia is a team that struggled in Ivy League play a season ago. Overall they had a record of just 5-9. Yet, they were a one loss team in their first ten games a season ago, with that one loss being against UConn. Guard Kenny Nolan did transfer to Michigan, and Ryan Soulis to Northwestern but look for the Lions to jump out to another fast start against the Phoenix. Lay the number.
The Sun Belt and MAC challenge has been one sided as the Sun Belt has not lost the event in it’s three years of existence. These matchups have been competitive and of today’s ten matchups, 9 have spreads of 3.5 points or less. Troy is a team that gained notoriety for taking USC to overtime, and beating San Diego State in non conference play a season ago. Size gave them problems as the season wore on, and that’s a strength of UMass that has size at all skill positions. Grab the points here with the Minutemen.
Charleston Southern had another off-season of a lot of turnover. They’ve brought in a lot of scorers from lower levels so let’s see if it translate as the Buccaneers have increased tempo and pace of play over the past few seasons. Charleston Southern are still tall inside but weak on the glass. South Florida should control the glass and have the more productive offensive weapons also wanting an up-tempo style and to get out in transition.
Early morning tip off before we start the work day. Last season, these were two of the slower teams in the country in terms of tempo and yes, it’s a new season and new players. But, the one thing we all know is this Merrimack defense and their zone. The Mountaineers have the size advantage and should be able to control the boards but Joe Gallo and Merrimack will make this into a slow, grind it out contest.
Welcome back college hoops! Not a huge totals guy most of the time, but I am Catholic so I had to bet this matchup on Sunday morning from Rome between Notre Dame and Villanova. It's basically the Pope Leo XIV national championship game (will he be there?) as he's from Chicago (which is Notre Dame's backyard) and graduated from Villanova. I have no idea of either team this early but with all the unusual travel, start time, surroundings, etc. You'd think shots would be clanking. The supposedly superior Wildcats only return two starters, while the Irish are almost entirely new.
Connecticut's path through the NCAA tournament went through the Big Ten Conference with victories over UCLA, Michigan State, and Illinois. Now it's Michigan's turn. In all those instances, they kept the game low scoring, and all three stayed under the total. They also beat Duke along the way. This is when coach Dan Hurley is at his absolute best, and his ego will not allow anything less in prime time. Connecticut plus the points.