I picked UCLA at +7.5 in my Tuesday parlay story written Monday and while a one-point spread shift downward might not seem like it's worth changing my mind on this game, I am doing so (one point made quite a difference on the two Monday game spreads -- both of which I hit). It's actually crazy how many models out there have the Wolverines winning by exactly seven points. Michigan will have a major height advantage and already has beaten two superior opponents, LSU and Florida State, by more than this spread. I still do like the Under from my parlay picks, though.

Both teams play great transition defense, which will create a half court, grind it out type of game. Michigan has been an under team all year, even more so since the beginning of January. The Wolverines are 13-5 to the under in their last 18 games.

Top-seeded Michigan destroyed a likely overseeded Florida State team, but UCLA has the balance and momentum on its side to thwart the Wolverines. Also look for the Bruins and Mick Cronin to have the coaching edge over Michigan and Juwan Howard. Play UCLA.

The Wolverines have had role players step up to fill the void left by injured standout Isaiah Livers left. One night it’s Eli Brooks making big shots, then it’s Brandon Johns Jr, and another night it’s Chaundee Brown. Coach Juwan Howard has his guys dialed in and focused on the championship and UCLA is in the way. Michigan to win by double digits.

I finally got the movement I was looking for in this game as the move from -7 to -6.5 is significant in tournament play at this level. My simulations make the Volverines -7.4 points better in this neutral site matchup. Michigan continues to win without Isaiah Livers thanks to a strong defensive effort. UCLA has the offensive weapons to win this outright, but their defense is the issue as they only grade out as the 56th best defense in the country. Lay it with Michigan at this key number.

The money is flowing in on UCLA and it's totally understandable. The Bruins' performance versus Alabama was incredible, even with the Tide missing 14 of 25 free throws. But two factors favor Michigan. The Wolverines are comfortable playing at a slow pace -- they rank 246th in possessions per game, compared to UCLA's 284th -- so they won't be frustrated having to play in the half-court. And UCLA has not faced a post-up option in this tourney like Hunter Dickinson. Each of UCLA's NCAA Tournament opponents has shot poorly from beyond the arc. I'm banking on Michigan (38.3 percent this season, 11th nationally) ending that streak.