This is a lot of points to lay with Virginia, but this should be a favorable matchup for the Cavaliers. It's worth noting they have reached the Final Four despite not once performing at their potential, while it's likely we've already seen the best Auburn has to offer. Those 3s and transition buckets that Auburn prefers won't be easy to come by against the top defensive team in the country. Moreover, the perception of Virginia as marginal on offense is worn and flat inaccurate -- the Cavaliers have three potential future pros and have their highest-scoring club even under Tony Bennett.

As torrid as Auburn’s shooters are, this total seems a tad low. While the Tigers’ frontcourt depth covers somewhat for the absence of Chuma Okeke (knee), Virginia can bank on more scoring from the vastly improved Mamadi Diakite. The Cavaliers were involved in several ultra-low points games this season, but controlling the tempo against the Tigers, who have soared Over five times in a row, will be a test. Plus, Virginia sharpshooter Kyle Guy seems to have ended his slump.

In my mind, there are two types of teams that give Virginia a lot of headaches. First, there's the teams like Duke that are filled with NBA talent, but those teams cause problems for nearly everyone. The other is a team that can drop bombs from three like Auburn can. But while Auburn's been one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country this year, making 38.3%, it's been even better in the tournament, hitting at a 40.5% rate. A rate that began to drop against Kentucky when it went 7/23. I think the shooting has cooled down, and Virginia's defense won't do anything to cause it to heat up again.

Virginia will control the pace, the slower more talented teams always control the pace. The Cavaliers are playing at an all-time slow pace with 53, 55 and 56 possessions their past three games. Games against teams that like to run have averaged about 60 possesions. The three latest games versus teams that tried to slow the pace against Auburn was Kentucky (60-60), Florida (65-62) and Alabama (66-60). I made this total 125.

The Virginia offense is ranked No. 2 and its defense No. 5. Auburn's offense ranks No. 6 but its defense ranks No. 38 and now it is without its third-best player Chuma Okeke. Okeke missed the last game against Kentucky however I felt his absence was not as big against a conference rival that had beaten them twice already this year. Kentucky coach Calipari said before the game that the way to beat Auburn was to slow them down, well Virginia plays the slowest basketball in the country. The Wahoo's last three game's pace has been 53, 55 and 56. This slow pace really bothers teams that like to run and without Okeke I have Virginia winning by 8.

Virginia has gone 33-3 this season, led by a great defense and an efficient offense that had the fourth-fewest turnovers in the nation. The Cavaliers were better than their rating most of the season starting out 22-7 ATS while playing in the tough ACC. But in their last seven games, they've gone just 3-4 ATS, which includes a loss to Florida State in the ACC Tournament and near-losses in both games last weekend. Auburn comes in riding a 12-game win streak, which includes winning the SEC Tournament and knocking out three blue-blood programs (Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky) in their last three with lights-out shooting. The Tigers seem to get better each game and have won their last four games outright as underdogs. Momentum is all theirs – and the value is on them again Saturday in the Final Four.

I think Auburn’s going to beat them. The Tigers are just incredible, without their best player they outscored Kentucky, and they can score in a lot of different ways. I’ve been following them the whole way. Virginia’s not going to be able to score against them. They can’t score, and Auburn has too much quickness for them.