Frankfurt did in fact get rolled over this past week in UCL play by Atalanta, however, outside of that one hiccup they've been a fierce attacking side when playing at home. Then you have Wolfsburg, who have been scoring, but that doesn't really matter since everyone seems to be capable of racking up goals on them. They have scored in each of their last three matches, and still lost all three of them. They are also shambolic on the road. Frankfurt need a bounce back on a weak opponent, and they got just that.

Yeah I'm not buying this "Hamburger at home" give them a huge advantage nonsense. We're getting this number because they pulled off a miracle draw against Dortmund earlier this month, and now people are associating that with home field domination. Hamburg have the worst offense in all of Bundesliga. They've scored nine goals in 11 matches, and are taking on a Stuttgart side who is averaging just under two goals scored per game. Hamburg will sit back, play for a draw, and get beaten up by Stuttgart's high line. This might be low scoring , but plus odds is silly.

Bayern Munich, for the first time all season, have lost a match. Not only did they lose to Arsenal in UCL play, they were frankly, embarrassed. The Gunners dominated every area of the pitch, shut down Kane and Olise, and won 3-1, and frankly, they could have won by more. Now, St. Pauli will endure the wrath of a ticked off Vincent Kompany who will want to put that loss in the rear view mirror as soon as possible. St Pauli have only scored once in their last six Bundesliga matches. I'm expecting a stomp at Allianz Arena.

Over the last five weeks of Bundesliga play, no team has picked up more points than Hoffenheim. They'll be understandably frustrated after drawing to Mainz 1-1 last matchday, but a big three points up for grabs at home is the perfect spot for a bounce back. A combination of Hoffenheim's impressive home form over the last month combined with Augsburg's poor away form, makes me think the hosts will continue their winning ways. I don't think it'll come easy, but a 2-1 final score sounds about right to me.

Koln matches the last month have been truly a thing of a beauty and a sight to behold. They've played four matches since the end of October. All four of those matches hit over 3.5 goals. Three of those matches also hit over 4.5 goals, and one hit over 6.5 goals. Koln knows that they are not defensively capable of stopping anyone from scoring, so they are playing foot on the gas for 90 minutes knowing they only win if they're scoring 2+ goals. They brought to fight out of Frankfurt and Gladbach, and I expect them to do the same against a decent enough Werder Bremen side.

Among things didn't think I'd wake up saying on Black Friday: "list price" and "Borussia Mönchengladbach." Was in a spelling bee once and believe I was ousted on Mönchengladbach. Felt a bit unfair of a question since I was 11. Was hoping for "Snoopy." RB Leipzig appears to be the superior team sitting second in the Bunda, but BM (no chance I'm typing out the long word again) has won four straight in all competitions and all by multiple goals (only Bundesliga team to have picked up maximum points in last three games as one was the German Cup). The teams they beat sound like beer, perfume, beer and sausage, but they all count the same. The visitors do have some availability concerns.

Sometimes you get inspiration from weird sources. Not really a "famous" person in that I don't follow on social that kind of thing. But when Mike Damone from "Fast Times at Ridgemont High" added me on Twitter, well that was truly glorious. That movie had a major impact on me growing up, so yeah. And I happened to watch it last night, and the German restaurant scene honestly ("two Cokes") got me looking at the Bunda. When I see a 3.5 really in any major Euro league short of a mega-powerhouse playing, I take a deeper look because 2-1 is so prevalent. Four of Werder Bremen's past five have landed Under this, and it's gonna be on the Green-Whites to keep this a slower-paced match.

A moment of silence for Freiburg.... Bayern Munich have been borderline perfect this season. Vincent Kompany has this club firing on on all cylinders. The front combo of Harry Kane, Michael Olise and Luis Diaz is frankly, unfair. However, Bayern Munich had their first bump in the road against Union Berlin when they drew back on November 8. The whole team was disappointed just to draw, and made it clear that when they come back, at home, they'd make up for this mistake. No matter who they were playing next, I was going to bet the over and the spread. This could get ugly, and Bayern might cover this by themselves.

Heidenheim are in a... rough place right now. They currently have the fewest goals scored in the Bundesliga, and also have conceded 23 goals over opening 10 matches. Their last match pre-international break saw them get buried by Leverkusen 6-0. While Gladbach are less dangers in front of the goal than Leverkusen, they've still seen their fair share of high-scoring matchups. Gladbach has outscored their last opponents over their last three competitive matches 10-2, and will be looking at the three points up for grabs against Heidenheim with a glint in their eye.

Stuttgart has been known in recent years as a 'Bogey Team" to Dortmund. This means no matter how big of a favorite Dortmund is or what is expected to happen, Stuttgart always find a way to upset them. If we look at the head-to-head history, Stuttgart has won their last five meetings straight, and haven't lost to Dortmund since 2022. On the road, at home, it doesn't matter. I'm expecting a close match, but with Stuttgart flying high and Dortmund facing upcoming UCL pressure, I'll take this spread every time.

October 19th we saw what essentially feels like a rebirth of this Hoffenheim squad. Something, possibly many things, all seemed to have clicked at once. Their offense got better, their midfield got faster and more creative, and their defense.. well their defense is still struggling. Looking at this new offense though has seen Hoffenheim now have five consecutive matches across all competition hit over 2.5 goals, and only once have they kept a clean sheet. This is an aggressively attacking Hoffenheim side who is scoring goals freely, and will look to continue that against Mainz.

I've already advised taking the spread for a full unit, but this line is off enough for me that I'm doubling down with a half unit ML sprinkle. Outside of powerhouses like Bayern Munich, Frankfurt and Leverkusen, Hoffenheim possesses the best attack. Fisnik Asllani and Tim Lemperle have done a great job finding their goal-scoring boots and Grischa Promel and Andrej Kramaric are continuing their form. Mainz being in pitiful form and Hoffenheim being in blazing form makes me feel like home-field advantage won't be enough for Mainz to get any points out of this.

Koln are a team that finished top of the 2. Bundesliga last season to find their back into the top flight of Germany. While there were doubts on their ability to stay and compete in the top flight of German football, they've found their footing very quickly. They are currently sitting seventh on the table, and have taken down clubs like Freiburg and Hoffenheim. I don't know if they'll win this outright, but getting them on half a goal at playable odds is a gift.

Hamburg has had some wild swings in results this season, including some drubbings like 5-0 vs. Bayern Munich (which can be excused) and then last week's 4-1 loss to Koln (which can't be excused). Scoring less than one goal pg, Hamburg is going to be in a relegation fight if it can't pull clear. This might be no time to get better vs. a capable and win-hungry BVB that was drubbed midweek by Man City in the Champions League, but has a definite firepower edge with Serhou Guirassy, a 20-goal scorer last term and back on the scoresheet last weekend vs. Augsburg. Play BVB on Money Line

Now, historically, Dortmund is a team that struggles on the road. Add in the the fact they'll be tired after getting battered by Manchester City in Champions League play, you might think Hamburg can sneak something out of this match. While I would like to agree with that, the nonsense the pulled against Koln is going to hurt them. Hamburg will be without Immanuel Pherai and Fabio Vieira who were both send off with red cards. They also added Fabio Balde and Nicolas Capaldo to their injury last in the last 10 days as well. Dortmund may be tired, but too many key pieces will be absent from Hamburg. I expect them to try to slow this down, but Dortmund should pick up the win.