Usually don't see this decent of a price on Under 3.5 that my limited soccer brain can recall. I still think Zinedine Zidane and Alexi Lalas are active, so what do I know? Dortmund is No. 1 in the Bundesliga in terms of fewest goals allowed at 17. Die Schwarzgelben (now I want a sausage with sauerkraut and mustard in the worst way) should smash bottom of table FC Heidenheim 1846 (what happened in 1846?) but the visitors are last in goals scored with 17. Feel like I am missing something here, but I can't read German. Un poco Espanol. Our model has 1.9-1.2. I've learned that own goals or penalty kicks are the only thing beating in U3.5 but generally still doing well.

Will play simply because it's an outlier number at our books, which all have 2.5 but fairly juiced to the Over. Neither of Leipzig's past two have topped this. Mainz is one of the worst clubs in the league so it may come down to if it scores. It is fourth-bottom in total goals scored. The hosts have a lot of guys out due to injury/suspension. Our model has 3 goals scored and that's kinda my thinking/hope.

Stuttgart has been blanked in two of its past five overall. Really seems to be an all or nothing type club in terms of scoring so we should know pretty early how this is looking. It ranks sixth-best in goals allowed with 26. Borussia Mönchengladbach (ain't typing that again) was blanked in its last match and has scored the seventh-fewest goals in the Bundesliga with 23. Stuttgart won this matchup 1-0 in late August on a 79th-minute Chema Andrés goal.

Under 4.5 is an auto-play for me regardless of league or team. Bayern Munich has looked utterly invincible lately offensively so just a half. The Bundesliga leaders were held to a pair of goals Wednesday in the Champions League and if they only score two again, this is definitely winning. And maybe they take this for granted ahead of another UCL match next Wednesday.

This match makes me want to get a burger (extra pickles) and a beer, and I don't care that it's 8:30 a.m. ET. Well, maybe on the beer. Perhaps by match time. St. Pauli is awful but this is a rare legit chance for a win. The Hamburglars aren't much better -- winless in four -- and have some player availability concerns. Our model has a draw. That works.

Don't see many totals of 4.5, so I feel obligated to take it even though unbeaten Bundesliga-leading Bayern Munich may hang five on Wolfsburg. Hopefully just four and the visitors don't score. Bayern Munich has only surrendered 11 league goals in 15 matches. Our model has 3.6 goals.

Coming close to dumping college hoops and focusing on soccer. At least in that sport I know who will play (usually). "I'm not bitter, you are. I know you are, but what am I?" Yep, I have been relegated to fifth-grade playground talk when it comes to college basketball. And I used relegated on purpose as we segue to the Beautiful Game. I generally like U3.5 when not the super-giants of European soccer. Both these sides (no way I type the visiting name, I'd hurt myself) apparently have major availability questions, but I can't learn about two CCSU guys ruled out until 5 minutes before a hoops tip? Yet I have more solid info on German soccer ... in German. This feels backward. "Danke schön."

I really don't have a ton of knowledge on the Bundesliga other than what I read. When it's not in German. But 3?I don't recall seeing that before in any major Euro domestic league. Not saying it didn't happen, I just don't remember or didn't notice. I will take this every day and twice on Tuesday, and it's the right play even with an L. Math tells us so.

You know, I don't really tail others. I like to form my own opinions. Then I may go look after. But in soccer, I do check on in on the excellent Martin Green and Buckets, and boy did Buckets go strong on this one. I had been looking at it. RB Leipzig is the way better side but I am practically allergic to road teams. But Buckets talked me into so now it's on him. FC Union Berlin has lost three straight. Only a draw likely beats us, but half because an away club.

Among things didn't think I'd wake up saying on Black Friday: "list price" and "Borussia Mönchengladbach." Was in a spelling bee once and believe I was ousted on Mönchengladbach. Felt a bit unfair of a question since I was 11. Was hoping for "Snoopy." RB Leipzig appears to be the superior team sitting second in the Bunda, but BM (no chance I'm typing out the long word again) has won four straight in all competitions and all by multiple goals (only Bundesliga team to have picked up maximum points in last three games as one was the German Cup). The teams they beat sound like beer, perfume, beer and sausage, but they all count the same. The visitors do have some availability concerns.

Sometimes you get inspiration from weird sources. Not really a "famous" person in that I don't follow on social that kind of thing. But when Mike Damone from "Fast Times at Ridgemont High" added me on Twitter, well that was truly glorious. That movie had a major impact on me growing up, so yeah. And I happened to watch it last night, and the German restaurant scene honestly ("two Cokes") got me looking at the Bunda. When I see a 3.5 really in any major Euro league short of a mega-powerhouse playing, I take a deeper look because 2-1 is so prevalent. Four of Werder Bremen's past five have landed Under this, and it's gonna be on the Green-Whites to keep this a slower-paced match.

Maybe I'm just hungry, but when I saw Hamburg, well, it stirred something. Mostly hunger yes -- can I get a Whopper this early? -- but the Hamburglars, which I am fairly certain is not their nickname (now I was curious and it's the Dinos, which is excellent; also the Red Shorts, which is good too), are three points up in the Bundesliga table on VfL Wolfsburg. The visitors appear to have some injury concerns as well. Hamburg won the last meeting 3-1. Wolfsburg has been routed in two October matches thus far and hasn't won since Aug. 23. Likely only a draw beats us, but I just don't see a scenario where I ever play that. Draw No Bet is a different story ...

I'm glad that I've upped my soccer knowledge in recent years because now in addition to Champions League, Premier League and La Liga ... we have Bundesliga options. I played games from those leagues back in the offshore days, so it's fun to re-engage a little. Bayern Munich is obviously the class of German soccer, but that makes it the home domestic match of the year for Eintracht Frankfurt. Which is unbeaten in league play (two draws). Think it's so karma I'm playing this as I went to a German restaurant for the first time in my entire life last week for wife's bday (her call). All I knew were Jagermeister and Sauerkraut. And somehow, I got a dish with both in it.