Matt's Picks (1 Live)
Freiburg sits eighth in the Bundesliga, six points ahead of FC Union Berlin. The visitors have a single win in their past 10. Freiburg is on a 16-game unbeaten steak at home and has won five of the past six at Europa-Park Stadion. FC Union Berlin has some player availability concerns on defense led by the suspended Leopold Querfeld. The clubs drew in November and that may well happen again. Wish "Draw No Bet" was "Date No Bet" as that would have saved me so much time in life ...
Reasonably fair price for DNB on Hamburg, which is five points up on FC Cologne in the Bundesliga table entering Saturday's match. The visitors have a lot of player availability concerns and are winless in five. Hamburg third-leading scorer Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer missed some training this week but is good to go. The Red Shorts are unbeaten in four at home. They were embarrassed at FC Cologne, 4-1, on Nov. 2 but were down to 10 men in the 79th minute and to nine in the 83rd, and it was only 2-1 entering stoppage time. "We’re determined to make up for that result," HSV coach Merlin Polzin said this week.
This may look awful by halftime, but can't the visitors only lose by two? Just for a point of reference, Bayern has only won two of its past nine in all competitions by at least three goals. Bundesliga leading scorer Harry Kane (30 goals) is out. Borussia Mönchengladbach -- sprained my wrist typing that last word -- has covered this number in four of the past five meetings. Granted it did not in October, losing 3-0, but the Foals (if you think I'm typing full Mönch again, no, it nearly broke my Lasik) were down to 10 men just 19 minutes in. And it was scoreless into the 60th minute. Bayern has a Champions League match Tuesday so maybe a bit of a look-ahead.
If Dortmund has any realistic shot of catching first-place Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, a win here is a must. And the hosts are unbeaten in 16 straight league games. The last loss naturally was at Bayern Munich, 2-1 on Oct. 18. But Die Schwarzgelben are the only remaining unbeaten home team in the Bundesliga. The sides have basically allowed the same number of league goals, but Bayern has scored 85 and the hosts 49. Some of our books have +0.5 but I wouldn't play lower than this. I'm hoping for a draw Saturday.
If know anything about me, I jump outlier lines. Won't say with no thought as I certainly go look, but sometimes a book will want to draw attention. And perhaps our system at times grabs an alt total. I really don't care the why. But every other book I can see has 2.5 -- granted, Over about the same price as this Under. But this is the sweet spot we hammer. I tried to test myself and see if I could say "Werder Bremen Heidenheim" 10 times fast. I made it through three before failing. These are the two guppies of the Bundesliga -- think, say, Wizards-Jazz. Horrible defensively, yes, but also offensively. Scoreless draw or 4-3 would not shock.
Feels like a good DNB price on Augsburg, which has just one loss in its past seven in the Bundesliga and has won four of five. The side has taken off since a managerial change. It is four points higher in the table than FC Cologne; how great would it be for that club's nickname to be the Drakkars? (It's the Billy Goats, which is pretty good.) Can't say I miss too much the very scented late 80s/early 90s, but I was certainly guilty. The visitors have a laundry list of player concerns for Friday and are winless in three straight. These clubs have drawn 1-1 in three consecutive matches, including in October. This is why I love DNB. Now we need it for hockey.
Look, 4.5 on a footy total I have to go Under -- like a 7 in the NHL (well we can push on that). I will tip my cap if a loss. It's similar if mashed taters and gravy are BOGO at Publix. I may lose but I'll go down in gravy, so to speak. Really doesn't take much to figure this out. If Bayern Munich allows one, we sweat a bit. Two? Probably toast. I play most American sports on pure knowledge/emotion. These soccer I play on pure math. When they played in October, Bayern won 3-0. Works just fine here. Our model has 3.8 goals scored.
I see Buckets is on Dortmund -1. Certainly a much, much better price there. I have grown to deal with and strategize a draw (on underdogs), but I certainly would prefer not having one in any sport so I almost always pay the freight to avoid. Can't see a scenario where Dortmund does any worse than a draw here (no help), but the hosts really need the 3 points to keep within striking distance of Bundesliga leader Bayern Munich. BVB is unbeaten in 14 straight overall and has won the past five. Mainz is definitely playing better lately but has won just one of its 10 away games. Surely we can get a 1-0 result here; Dortmund won the reverse fixture 2-0 on Sept. 27.
Do I think this bet wins? Probably not. But I also don't really think it loses and ideally we get fortunate on a one-goal Bayern Munich win. Or obviously draw. Hoffenheim (feel like I sneezed) is third in the Bundesliga and has only four losses. Bayern is of course first. I would not play +1.5. This is the only book offering 2. I'm expecting a push in all honesty.
Usually don't see this decent of a price on Under 3.5 that my limited soccer brain can recall. I still think Zinedine Zidane and Alexi Lalas are active, so what do I know? Dortmund is No. 1 in the Bundesliga in terms of fewest goals allowed at 17. Die Schwarzgelben (now I want a sausage with sauerkraut and mustard in the worst way) should smash bottom of table FC Heidenheim 1846 (what happened in 1846?) but the visitors are last in goals scored with 17. Feel like I am missing something here, but I can't read German. Un poco Espanol. Our model has 1.9-1.2. I've learned that own goals or penalty kicks are the only thing beating in U3.5 but generally still doing well.
Will play simply because it's an outlier number at our books, which all have 2.5 but fairly juiced to the Over. Neither of Leipzig's past two have topped this. Mainz is one of the worst clubs in the league so it may come down to if it scores. It is fourth-bottom in total goals scored. The hosts have a lot of guys out due to injury/suspension. Our model has 3 goals scored and that's kinda my thinking/hope.
Stuttgart has been blanked in two of its past five overall. Really seems to be an all or nothing type club in terms of scoring so we should know pretty early how this is looking. It ranks sixth-best in goals allowed with 26. Borussia Mönchengladbach (ain't typing that again) was blanked in its last match and has scored the seventh-fewest goals in the Bundesliga with 23. Stuttgart won this matchup 1-0 in late August on a 79th-minute Chema Andrés goal.
Under 4.5 is an auto-play for me regardless of league or team. Bayern Munich has looked utterly invincible lately offensively so just a half. The Bundesliga leaders were held to a pair of goals Wednesday in the Champions League and if they only score two again, this is definitely winning. And maybe they take this for granted ahead of another UCL match next Wednesday.
This match makes me want to get a burger (extra pickles) and a beer, and I don't care that it's 8:30 a.m. ET. Well, maybe on the beer. Perhaps by match time. St. Pauli is awful but this is a rare legit chance for a win. The Hamburglars aren't much better -- winless in four -- and have some player availability concerns. Our model has a draw. That works.