I didn't know the rather unique Bundesliga relegation rules until my friend and long-time SL subscriber Ed explained it to me on our Discord. Long story short, St. Pauli has reason to care in the finale as it could climb as high as third-to-last (16th). The bottom two in the league are kicked. Third-to-last enters a two-legged playoff against the third-place team from Zeitgeist 2 or whatever the lower-tier league is called for the final spot in next season's Bundesliga. Wolfsburg is in the same position but has a fairly large list of guys out. A draw works just fine for me and might be enough for Wolfsburg to finish in 16th as it holds all tiebreakers currently. St. Pauli can't afford a draw.
Big number, yes, but two things: First, I give myself a pass on DNB bigger numbers because in my mind I'm getting two wagers in one in a way. (Again, it's why I miss NHL -1.) Second, I think it should be quite a bit higher. Heidenheim is the worst team in German soccer and will be relegated. So I suppose it can throw caution to the wind, but it's not like you can call flea-flickers and double-reverses (right?) in this type of football. FC Cologne is trying to avoid "abstieg" -- gosh I hope I can trust Google Translate and that's not a curse word or something. A win here probably does the trick. Two starting defenders on the visitors are in doubt.
Dang it! I had this at -160 DNB the other day but wanted to wait for lineups and now I obviously lost 30 cents. Do I sweat 30 cents? Not particularly, but not getting a number I thought would jump is irksome. Again, same sort of deal as my Friday Serie A play (win): Nothing really to play for, so why wouldn't we take the home team to at worst draw? Answer: We shall. Mönchengladbach, which sounds like a great beer and also the static the Poltergeist little girl heard on the TV, has some major player availability questions led by leading scorer Haris Tabakovic (12 goals domestically). Guessing his iffy status is why this has jumped, but I don't speak German.
Battle of the Burgs! Feel like I should have a Pittsburgh metaphor here, but it's escaping me at the moment. Would like a Primanti Bros. sandwich right now, though, that's for sure. I think this probably draws today but really cheap price so definitely worth the risk on DNB. Freiburg is 18 points better in the Bundesliga. The hosts have lost only twice in league play at home since August and one of those was to superpower Bayern Munich in a game the Breisgau Brazilians should have won. They won this reverse fixture, 4-3 on Dec. 20.
Bayern Munich is miles -- sorry, kilometers -- better than Mainz, but I don't really understand why the Bavarians would play anyone of note/care in this one Saturday. They clinched the Bundesliga title on Sunday, have a German Cup semifinal game Wednesday vs. rival Bayer Leverkusen and then a Champions League semifinal match vs. PSG on the Tuesday after this. So, yeah, Saturday feels like the biggest sandwich game in German soccer history (that's why I'm jumping the number now before the books get wise). I definitely considered Mainz at +475 ....
To me, an Under 3.5 play when it's not involving PSG or Man City or Barcelona or Real Madrid or Bayern Munich, well, I think that's a have-to. I'll no longer play Champions League totals because that's clearly different. But domestic? Jeong Woo-Yeong (3G, 1A) is out for FC Union Berlin as he's directing Beef season 3 (I kid, but season 2 is truly epic television). This will likely be if/how many the visitors score because they can't defend. If it's no more than 1, I think we are good but definitely hoping for a clean sheet. Die Eisernen have been held to a goal or fewer in eight straight in all competitions.
Das Boot! My Bundesliga play Saturday failed. Why did I previously refuse to bet this sport? Absurd statistical domination that does not matter at all. FC Union Berlin outshot its terrible road opponent Wolfsburg 25-5 and out-cornered 11-4 and still lost. OK. I do like this Sunday one better -- and that the excellent Martin Green is also on it is a boost. Was thinking about a half but now will bet to win. Certainly seems a fair price considering Heidenheim is the worst team in the league by far. Freiburg's only loss in the past six is to maybe the best team in the world in Bayern Munich. And yet the Breisgau Brazilians (that's interesting, sounds like a 1980s all-female band) aren't -1?
This is a perplexing number -- a fair amount too cheap in my opinion. Again, where a team sits in the table is not everything but it's something and FC Union Berlin is 11th in the Bundesliga (granted, been pretty bad in the New Year) with 32 points and Wolfsburg second-to-last with 21 points. And the Wolves have some injury concerns. They have lost seven in a row away and have never won at FC Union Berlin -- which will have a historic new manager for this one in Marie-Louise Eta. She is the first woman in charge of a men's team in the Bundesliga. Good for her, hope the debut is a success. Wolfsburg is on its third manager of the season.
Always a fan of outlier 3.5 totals when all the other books have 2.5 as is the case for this Bundesliga matchup on Saturday. Both are top half of the table in teams of fewest goals allowed. If Hoffenheim is held to just two then I think golden. The sides drew 1-1 in November, with one an own goal and the other in the 88th minute. Four straight and six of Mainz's past seven in all competitions has landed Under 3.5. Hoffenheim starting midfielder Leon Avdullahu is out and the side has stayed Under 3.5 in three straight matches at home. Our model has 3.2 goals scored.
Freiburg sits eighth in the Bundesliga, six points ahead of FC Union Berlin. The visitors have a single win in their past 10. Freiburg is on a 16-game unbeaten steak at home and has won five of the past six at Europa-Park Stadion. FC Union Berlin has some player availability concerns on defense led by the suspended Leopold Querfeld. The clubs drew in November and that may well happen again. Wish "Draw No Bet" was "Date No Bet" as that would have saved me so much time in life ...
Reasonably fair price for DNB on Hamburg, which is five points up on FC Cologne in the Bundesliga table entering Saturday's match. The visitors have a lot of player availability concerns and are winless in five. Hamburg third-leading scorer Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer missed some training this week but is good to go. The Red Shorts are unbeaten in four at home. They were embarrassed at FC Cologne, 4-1, on Nov. 2 but were down to 10 men in the 79th minute and to nine in the 83rd, and it was only 2-1 entering stoppage time. "We’re determined to make up for that result," HSV coach Merlin Polzin said this week.
This may look awful by halftime, but can't the visitors only lose by two? Just for a point of reference, Bayern has only won two of its past nine in all competitions by at least three goals. Bundesliga leading scorer Harry Kane (30 goals) is out. Borussia Mönchengladbach -- sprained my wrist typing that last word -- has covered this number in four of the past five meetings. Granted it did not in October, losing 3-0, but the Foals (if you think I'm typing full Mönch again, no, it nearly broke my Lasik) were down to 10 men just 19 minutes in. And it was scoreless into the 60th minute. Bayern has a Champions League match Tuesday so maybe a bit of a look-ahead.
If Dortmund has any realistic shot of catching first-place Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, a win here is a must. And the hosts are unbeaten in 16 straight league games. The last loss naturally was at Bayern Munich, 2-1 on Oct. 18. But Die Schwarzgelben are the only remaining unbeaten home team in the Bundesliga. The sides have basically allowed the same number of league goals, but Bayern has scored 85 and the hosts 49. Some of our books have +0.5 but I wouldn't play lower than this. I'm hoping for a draw Saturday.
If know anything about me, I jump outlier lines. Won't say with no thought as I certainly go look, but sometimes a book will want to draw attention. And perhaps our system at times grabs an alt total. I really don't care the why. But every other book I can see has 2.5 -- granted, Over about the same price as this Under. But this is the sweet spot we hammer. I tried to test myself and see if I could say "Werder Bremen Heidenheim" 10 times fast. I made it through three before failing. These are the two guppies of the Bundesliga -- think, say, Wizards-Jazz. Horrible defensively, yes, but also offensively. Scoreless draw or 4-3 would not shock.
Feels like a good DNB price on Augsburg, which has just one loss in its past seven in the Bundesliga and has won four of five. The side has taken off since a managerial change. It is four points higher in the table than FC Cologne; how great would it be for that club's nickname to be the Drakkars? (It's the Billy Goats, which is pretty good.) Can't say I miss too much the very scented late 80s/early 90s, but I was certainly guilty. The visitors have a laundry list of player concerns for Friday and are winless in three straight. These clubs have drawn 1-1 in three consecutive matches, including in October. This is why I love DNB. Now we need it for hockey.