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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
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The Bills won't be shy to use Dalton Kincaid Sunday. He had 3 receptions for 26 yards last week in the first 3 quarters. This Raiders defense is not nearly the level of the Jets defense he faced. Buffalo has been using 21 personnel, allowing for plenty of opportunity for him. We project Kincaid to have 39 yards, look for him to get targeted early and often.
This is the week we realize Las Vegas' defense is fraudulent. I worry about a back-door cover, but the Bills should score plenty.
Expect Josh Allen and the Bills to bounce back in a big way after the Jets defense humbled them again. When Buffalo wins, it wins by a lot. One odd thing here: Despite more than 90% of the money coming in on the Bills, the line has moved in the opposite direction, falling two points since Monday's -10. Strange, but I'll take laying fewer points with the far better team.
This is a value price, down 1.5 points from the opener at some outlets, to support the notion that this is the ultimate get-right game for the Bills. Despite their borderline dreadful performance in Week 1, the Jets have long been a crutch for this Buffalo club. Look for the Bills to get back on track at the expense of a Las Vegas team that eked out a win in Denver last week.

Davante Adams looks set to receive monster usage against the Bills in week 2. Adams finished week 1 with 100% route participation, 35% target share, 47% air yard share, and was a first read on 24% of his targets. This was playing alongside Jakobi Meyers who even managed to out-target Adams. Meyers has been ruled leaving Adams set to receive monster usage. With the Raiders checking in as nearly double digit underdogs it could result in increased passing volume.

Bills QB Josh Allen carried six times for 36 yards in the season-opening loss at the Jets. Had he run the ball a couple more times instead of forcing throws into double coverage, Buffalo would have won. Look for Allen to run a bit more Sunday against the Raiders, as he will be intent on avoiding turnovers. Vegas' defense is much worse than the Jets', so I expect there to be big running lanes.

James Cook looked the part in Week 1 despite the rest of the Bills offense, most notably Josh Allen, being out of sync. Cook had six targets on Monday night and caught four of them for 17 yards. Against a Las Vegas defense which allowed the fourth most receptions and the most receiving yards to RBs last season, I wouldn't be surprised to see Cook top this total fairly quickly on Sunday afternoon.
Josh Allen is by no means out of the woods when it comes to figuring out the issues that plagued him last year and in Week 1. But a home opener with the chip on Allen's shoulder only larger against a Raiders defense that doesn't have the firepower to slow down Allen the way Robert Saleh's unit did. On the other side, Jakobi Meyers is still in concussion protocol and Davante Adams missed practice on Wednesday. Both could be back, of course, but the Raiders offense could be severely limited. Would've, could've, should've but if the Bills beat the Jets or look remotely competent on offense against a different team in Week 1 this line is way north of double digits.
The Bills (and in particular Josh Allen) laid a dud against the Jets, but I don't think there's anything fundamentally wrong with their offense. The Jets defense has had their number and Allen tried to do too much. That won't be necessary against the Raiders, who weren't tested deep at all last week against Russell Wilson. This line was Bills -10 before Monday night and I think it should've been higher.
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