Knicks score-first PG Jalen Brunson has registered at least six assists in eight of the Knicks’ last 10 games. He overall trended higher than that all season (6.8), and trended even higher against the Spurs, with 7, 8 and 8 assists. I think Josh Hart is going to have issues against Stephon Castle; Hart’s potential assists go to Brunson.

Victor Wembanyama hasn’t had 12 rebounds in five straight games. Prior to that, though, he’d had at least 14 in seven of nine. I’ll lean on that latter trend. He had 13 rebounds in two of three regular-season meetings with Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks. He had 24 and 15 boards in Game 1 of the last two series.

In three games vs. the Knicks in the regular season, Julian Champagnie scored just three points in two of them. In the other, a Spurs win, he scored a season-high 36 points. Champagnie averages 11.4 ppg on the season but scored 20-plus in two of the final three games vs. the Thunder. Champagnie can have another big game if he stays on the offensive.

Over the last nine games, Mikal Bridges is averaging 34.1 minutes a game, up from the 26.8 minutes in the first five postseason games. The extra minutes have resulted in Bridges averaging 18.7 points, 3.1 assists, and 4.0 rebounds a game (25.8 PRA) over this nine-game stretch, hitting the over in the PRA prop in all nine games. Against the Spurs this season, he's totaled 21, 21, and 32 PRA in fewer minutes than he's getting now.

This is not just a play on the possible rust from the Knicks not playing in 9 days. The Spurs average 31.8 PPG in the first quarter this season, second-best behind the Miami Heat, and two full points better than the Knicks. The Spurs are also 8-2-2 in winning the first quarter since losing Game 1 to the Timberwolves in the Conference Semifinals.

Against the stellar Thunder defense, De’Aaron Fox recorded at least five assists in all five games that he played. In three of them, he finished with at least six assists. Although he only produced five assists in Game 7, he should have finished with a lot more as his teammates missed several open looks. The biggest takeaway from that game was that Fox logged 36 minutes, which was his most in a game since returning from his ankle injury. He averaged 6.2 assists per game during the regular season and had at least six assists all three times he played the Knicks, including in the NBA Cup Championship game. I like his chances to reach that threshold again in Game 1.

After a slow start to the playoffs, Mikal Bridges has scored at least 15 points in eight of his last nine games. During that span, he averaged 18.7 points and shot 62.8% from the field, including 37.9% from three. This game being played in San Antonio isn’t a big negative for him because he was better on the road during the regular season. He averaged 13.1 points per game at home, but 15.6 points per game on the road. Another reason to like this over is that Bridges has averaged 36 minutes over the last seven games.

Jalen Brunson has thrived in playoff series openers. This spring, he opened with 28 against the Hawks, 35 vs. the 76ers and 38 against the Cavaliers. While Stephon Castle is an elite point-of-attack defender and Victor Wembanyama will be lurking in the paint, Brunson has a dizzying array of moves and uncommon mid-range ability. Since late March, Brunson has played 35-plus minutes 16 times. He's cleared this prop total in 14 of those. Look for about 40 minutes from Brunson in Game 1.

The Knicks have won 11 games in a row, covering 10 of them, but before we bet, we should analyze the Eastern Conference teams that they beat. They were down 2-1 in the first round to the Hawks, but the Knicks won the next three games to advance to the second round. They were fortunate. They won four straight against the 76ers, who couldn't count on Joel Embiid again. It was almost like hitting the lottery. Then they swept the Cavaliers, which was a good victory for the Knicks. They do belong. Even though the Knicks have the win streak, I think the Spurs are the best team in the NBA, and they're at home in Game 1. I like the Spurs to win.

FanDuel. Game 1s are all about trying to get ahead of what will become series trends. The way I see the Knicks defending Victor Wembanyama, be it with OG Anunoby or one of their centers, is by packing the paint and making the Spurs beat them from the outside. Julian Champagnie should not only benefit from catch and shoot opportunities, but he’ll likely be where the Knicks will “hide” Jalen Brunson defensively. The Knicks allowed the third highest catch and shoot frequency in the regular season at 34.5%, and they’re currently running similarly at 33% in the playoffs. Champagnie, who ended the Thunder series on a roll, should carry momentum over into the finals. Bet it to over 10.5 points (to win one unit).

The Spurs and Knicks were both under teams during the regular season, but their first meeting went way over the total 134-132, and their second meeting in New York stayed under the total 114-89. The highest total was 235.5, and the lowest total was 227.5. Now, we're looking at 218.5 in the NBA Finals, where defense figures to be the main focus initially for both teams. But the Spurs have gone over the total in seven of their last nine games, while the Knicks have gone over in four of their last five. The Knicks haven't played since May 25th, but I think they play at their best, as do the Spurs at home. Over is the play.

The Spurs won the December 31st meeting with the Knicks 134-132, going over the 235.5 total, and we're looking at a Game 1 finals total of 218.5. In that game, the Knicks shot 48% and 42% from 3-point range, making 22 of 52 shots. The Knicks started on fire with 45 points in the first quarter, but ran out of gas in the 4th quarter, as the Spurs outscored them 41-30. Jalen Brunson shot 10 of 24 from the field but five of 12 from 3-point range. All he's got to do in Game 1 is make three 3-pointers to win the bet. I think he does.

The Spurs had three days off to re-set after their epic Game 7 win in Oklahoma City. I still question whether they can muster the same focus and urgency they showed in dethroning the defending champs. Mitchell Robinson (finger) is expected to play; he and OG Anunoby will be critical to the Knicks' defense on Victor Wembanyama. New York won two of three regular-season meetings, losing by just two in San Antonio. While the Thunder (due to injury) lacked a second creator behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, New York can run its offense through Karl-Anthony Towns while letting Jalen Brunson play off the ball. I'm expecting Game 1 to come down to the wire, so I took the points.