During the five regular season matchups against the Thunder, Stephon Castle scored 19 or more points in four games. Castle may be a first time postseason player, but he has elevated his play. Through the first two rounds he is averaging 20 points in the playoffs, and this is while averaging just 32 minutes. The Thunder are a great defensive team, but look for Castle to be one of the Spurs not impacted. Take his over.

Dylan Harper continues to play a big and important role for the Spurs. He cleared this prop total in all six games of the Timberwolves series. I would play this up to -135.

Spurs backup center Luke Kornet scored four-plus points in three of the six first-round games vs. the Timberwolves. Against OKC this regular season, he was a total afterthought to the Thunder defense. After a modest 1-for-3 effort in the opening matchup, Kornet scored 8, 6, 8 and 4 vs. OKC, the final two games shooting seven times. We'll bite on this low-hanging fruit.

Dylan Harper is one of the Spurs I have marked as the X factor for them to do well in this series. He's come out strong in the playoffs, averaging 13.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game. He also steals the ball 1.2 times a game. All his totals are up from the regular season, and yet we have a total based on his regular-season average, which is 3.4 rebounds per game. He's a different player in these playoffs and has a special duty coming off the bench. He’s gone over his rebound total in his last 9 games. Over 3.5 half rebounds is the play.

The OKC Thunder as the defending champions you could not ask for a better start in the first two rounds of the playoffs. They have yet to lose as they swept the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers. Both teams were dealing with injuries, and now the Thunder will see a Spurs team that has the depth to match them. I would not be surprised for the Thunder to have a double digit lead at halftime, but this Spurs team has shown to be a second half team. Grab the number with the Spurs.

The series everyone wanted to see in the West is happening as the No. 1-seeded Thunder face the No. 2-seeded Spurs beginning tonight in Oklahoma City. The Spurs have the edge in the season series, winning four of five games. Still, in reality, it's only three of four, as in the last game on February 4th, the Thunder didn't have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, or Chet Holmgren playing. But nobody else took out the Thunder three or four this year. The reason for the Spurs success against the Thunder is Victor Wembanyama, who doesn't block every shot but alters the shot attempts by the Thunder. Then you've got to make your shots, and the Spurs have been doing that. Spurs.

Isaiah Hartenstein took a back seat to Chet Holmgren in the last playoff round. But while Holmgren has struggled against the Spurs, Hartenstein excelled in his three games vs. San Antonio. (Victor Wembanyama played in two of the three). Look for the Thunder to play both big men major minutes as they contend with Wemby inside. I would also play this Over 16.5.

Ajay Mitchell has eclipsed this scoring prop in 7/8 Thunder playoff games, including seven consecutive games. Mitchell is essentially a rookie and has proven to be a tremendous natural scorer who has provided the Thunder with a secondary scoring option. Even with Jalen Williams back in the lineup, I still expect Mitchell to play 25-30 minutes.

FanDuel. New series, new matchup, and I don’t love this one for Chet Holmgren. The Thunder big man has not historically acquitted himself well against the Spurs, who can match his length down low. Holmgren was under this line in each of the four regular season matchups against San Antonio. Jalen Williams is listed as available for Game 1 for OKC, who will continue to exploit the matchups they find favorable. I don’t see that involving Chet too much tonight. I’d bet this down to under 25.5.

In the Thunder’s sweep over the Lakers, Chet Holmgren grabbed at least nine rebounds in each of the four games. Despite the Thunder being involved in so many lopsided scores, Holmgren has averaged 9.1 rebounds a night in the playoffs. This game being at home is noteworthy because he averaged 9.6 rebounds per game in Oklahoma City during the regular season. On the road, he averaged 8.2 rebounds. In what should be a close game, expect Holmgren to play a lot and receive ample opportunities to hit this over.

Dylan Harper is coming off a productive series against the Timberwolves in which he averaged 14.7 points. In five of the six games, he scored at least 11 points. He shot 56.9% from the field in the series after shooting 50.5% during the regular season. He should play around 25 minutes a game, and he could see a couple of minutes more if Stephon Castle or De’Aaron Fox get into foul trouble guarding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That’s enough playing time to put Harper in a favorable position to hit this over.

This current line overestimates Oklahoma City's home-court advantage and rest differential. In fact, rest can sometimes equal rust. Although the Thunder are undefeated at 8-0 this postseason, they played two weak foes, missing key players. San Antonio’s discipline in limiting turnovers (averaging just 13.4 per game in head-to-head contests) prevents Oklahoma City from generating easy transition opportunities. Additionally, the Spurs' frontcourt provides a considerable edge on the boards, resulting in extra possessions and limiting the Thunder's interior offense. De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle offer the backcourt composure necessary to counter Oklahoma City's aggressive perimeter defense. The Spurs have covered the spread in four of their five meetings with the Thunder this season, including four outright victories. San Antonio clearly matches up well against them.