Defensive whiz Ausar Thompson scored eight or fewer points in five of seven games vs. Orlando. However, he played 32-plus minutes in the final five games. That's critical because in the two most recent meetings with Cleveland, Thompson also played big minutes -- 31 and 36. He turned those minutes into 16 and 18 points. I'm expecting Detroit to force a substantial amount of turnovers, which should help Thompson score at least 10 points.

FanDuel. Jalen Duren struggled mightily against the Magic, averaging 20 combined points plus rebounds. It was a brutal matchup for the big man, one I’m sure he (and the Pistons as a whole) are happy to be done with. Now, Duren will face a Cavs team he’s had much more success against. And let’s not forget, the Pistons center averaged 30 points plus rebounds this season, so we’re getting a nice discount on this line. The Cavs defense excels at stopping ball-handlers (which Orlando did not) and Tobias Harris has a much tougher matchup in this series. I think Duren rebounds in this round (pun intended) - I have him projected around 29 points plus rebounds.

Tobias Harris scored 30 points in the Pistons’ Game 7 win over the Magic. It was the cherry on top of an excellent series that saw him average 21.6 points. After averaging 28 minutes and 10.5 shot attempts per game during the regular season, he has averaged 35 minutes and 17.3 shot attempts in the playoffs. As the clear second best scoring option behind Cade Cunningham, Harris could approach 20 points again.

Three of the last four meetings between the Pistons and Cavaliers have stayed under the total, but one was as high as 239.5 and ended 114-110. We're looking at Game 1 set at 216.5. At the last meeting on March 3, the total was 228.5, and it was 113-109. In the regular season, that game stays under, but in the postseason, that game goes over. I like the Cavs to take the Pistons to the very end. I like the Cavs to run their normal game, and what you get is this Game 1 over.

The Cavaliers didn’t need to play Jarrett Allen huge minutes in the previous round because the Raptors didn’t have a ton of size at center. That’s certainly not the case with the Pistons, who have Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart and Paul Reed. Allen missed one game against the Pistons this season and left another early because of injury. In the two full games that he played against them, he combined for 34 and 27 points and rebounds. I expect him to play around 30 minutes, which would put him in a favorable position to hit this over.

James Harden has been underwhelming so far this postseason, which has been a reoccurring theme for him throughout his career. With that being said, this is simply too low of a line for Harden who averaged just shy of 37 PRA in the regular season. Harden is playing heavy minutes and this number is much closer to his floor than his ceiling, even in a tough matchup.

Don't know this is my favorite play ever, but my Michigan peeps deserve some positive news after the Tarik Skubal injury (and the Wings missing the playoffs again). I think the Cavs have the better roster and may win the series, but they looked pretty awful on the road in Round 1 vs. Toronto. James Harden especially was bad in those road games. Dude just can't rise to the occasion in the playoffs apparently. The Pistons seemed to find their mojo in the final three vs. Orlando. The model loves Detroit.

Detroit enters this series riding a wave of confidence after mounting a historic 3-1 comeback against the Orlando Magic. The atmosphere at Little Caesars Arena will likely be electric and intimidating for Cleveland, particularly since home-court advantage proved decisive in every game of the Cavaliers' first-round series. The Pistons have adopted a no-nonsense, physical defensive approach reminiscent of the franchise’s famed "Bad Boys" era—a gritty identity that tends to succeed in the postseason, especially when referees allow more physicality in the paint. After dropping Game 1 at home against the Magic, Detroit will be super focused in this spot. My model projects the Pistons as 6.7-point favorites, so with the line set at -3, this presents a strong value opportunity.