This might be a blowout, which would mean Celtics backups seeing decent action and then a clear drop-off defensively. Orlando topped this number in two of three RS meetings with Boston and easily topped it in the Play-In victory vs. Atlanta, although the Hawks are a bad defensive club. The Celtics allowed an average of 107.2 PPG during the regular season. And, hey, if we get OT then we most surely cash.

Cole Anthony scored 26 points over 20 minutes in the Play-In Tournament against the Hawks. He is less than two weeks removed from scoring 18 points over 22 minutes against the Celtics. He played the Celtics three times this season and he scored at least 10 points in each game. The Magic don’t have great scoring options outside of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, so I expect Anthony to play around 20 minutes and receive plenty of shot attempts.

While we only have 1 point of value we have 22% over 4.5 with our 5.5 projection. More importantly, our 5.5 is definitely a floor for Sam Hauser. Jaylen Brown is a true GTD and if he doesn’t play OR if the Celtics are up big he will sit and Hauser could get an extended run. Brown’s point line is only 18.5 which is showing that oddsmakers think there’s a good chance this happens (he averages 22.2). Hauser has hit 5+ in his last 15 games and a good chunk were with Brown. In the final 3 games w/o Brown he had 10, 20 and 15.

The Magic are playing elite defense, they want to slow the game down and live in a half court setting. Yeah, this is a low number, but playoffs tend to be lower scoring, games are called differently. We are talking about the No. 1 and No. 7 teams in D rating in the NBA over the final 15 games. The Celtics are allowing 103/G in that span and the Magic 104. Not sure Orlando gets to 90 points here. The Celtics were 30-22 to the under vs Eastern Conference teams, Magic 48-35 to the under. The Celtics learned to pace themselves in drive to title last year.

We’re getting a chunky discount on this scoring line for Jaylen Brown who is dealing with a troublesome knee, however the reigning Finals MVP was able to practice ahead of Game 1 versus Orlando. I’m betting on Brown being close to 100% considering he’s nearly 2 weeks off and his practice participation in very encouraging. I also believe the Celtics would hold him out if they were worried about his knee.