Expert Picks
All three Chicago wins are at home. ...
I hope I’m not falling for a trap here, because the only reason I’m taking this Over is that all five of Joey Daccord’s starts this season have seen at least seven goals. Daccord sports a 3.89 GAA, and Seattle has the offensive firepower to help carry this total, averaging 3.82 goals per game. The concern, of course, is Minnesota’s defense, which has limited opponents to just 2.46 goals per game, along with a Wild offense averaging a relatively modest 2.91 goals per game. Play at your own risk here, but this is just one of those picks I would beat myself up for not playing if it hit.
Short of Vancouver and maybe 1-2 other teams, think a +1.5 number on an NHL home team that is not outrageously priced has to be played. Seattle is pretty good. I used to know what the books were up to, they were just too busy to care about hockey this time of year, so we'd get some good numbers out of just lack of human manpower to do it all. Now I'm assuming that AI/Skynet has taken over, so all the supposed gaps have been filled. That's fine, I'll beat John Connor.
Jack Roslovic has exceeded this line in all but one game thus far, and he's racked up 3+ shots on goal in 6/12 games this year. Those results, and three recent performances with five shots on goal has be looking up the ladder for plus money here too. The Oilers will go to Tristan Jarry at goal, and I think the Maple Leafs fire plenty of shots on net, with Roslovic in the mix for a couple at least. Edmonton is also down top-defenseman Matthias Ekholm, which should open things up a bit for scoring chances as well.
Washington is averaging 3.67 goals per game at home, so Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will have his work cut out for him. However, Buffalo has a strong case to contribute offensively as well, as the Sabres have seen the Over hit in all four of their road games this season. With Charlie Lindgren making just his third start of the season for Washington, Buffalo has an opportunity to take advantage of a goaltender who may still be settling into a rhythm. With both teams capable of finding the back of the net, I’m hoping for a high-scoring matchup tonight.
I’m a little hesitant to back Pittsburgh with Arturs Silovs in net, but his most recent shutout against the Panthers moved the needle just enough for me. Nashville has left much to be desired offensively, averaging just 2.56 goals per game. On the other side, Pittsburgh has been more productive, scoring an average of 3.27 goals per game. I see these teams as fairly evenly matched defensively, but the Penguins have the offensive edge. That should be the difference-maker here, so I’m backing the Pens tonight.
Regulation line is -110 at DK, and that's completely good but if don't want to take OT/shootout off the board. I was waiting to ensure Bruins No. 1 goalie Jeremy Swayman was confirmed in net, and he has been. The Sharks have some injury issues at forward and seem like in an awful spot at the end of a season-long six-game trip. Boston is completely healthy and rested. Logic says easy win here, but pucks often don't follow logic.
The Kings have turned things around a bit, but the Devils likely are massively energized by the acquisition of three-time Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck. Fantastic trade for New Jersey, which I now put on the short list of Cup contenders. CH not expected today quite yet but just the addition has to be a boon to the locker room. Third city in five nights for the visitors.
Now I hope this doesn’t come back to bite me, but I like the Over here. Yes, I know both teams have been lacking offensively, but they’ve been even worse on defense. All but two of Lukas Dostal’s seven appearances for the Ducks have seen at least six total goals. Meanwhile, the Flyers are finally starting to gain some traction, with their only wins this season having came in their three most recent games. Let’s see if we can get a win in this early game.
Nathan MacKinnon and the Avs went winless on their two-game, east coast road trip earlier this week, but return home looking to bounce back against a tough opponent. Both losses were decided by just one goal each for Colorado, and MacKinnon couldn't get on the score sheet in either game. I think he bounces back well here, at home where he's been much better thus far. With 11 points at home and five goals in five games, the Avs' star will be needed if they want to beat Tampa and avoid a three game losing streak. He was over this line in both games vs. Tampa last year, and MacKinnon has been a shot machine in Colorado, registering 9,4,8,4,8 SOG at home this year.
New thing like to do to bring a hockey price down a bit is "no goal in first five minutes" -- thank you Gipperpicks on Discord as you kinda alerted me to that -- or even none in first 10 when attached to a regular number. I like the Hawks here at +1.5 in this Original Six matchup as the Habs have some injury issues -- namely Nick Suzuki (12 points) and top blueliner Mike Matheson. If you wanted to play Hawks ML I have no problem with that. But I don't think that way in hockey on a home dog. Because if I did that and lost in OT, it would wreck my night -- and have my Jason Voorhees costume ready to rock.
Nick Suzuki might be one of the league's most underappreciated players, and the value he adds to this Canadiens roster can't be overstated. He's expected to miss some time with an upper body injury and for a roster already thin up top this is a big blow. Montreal also isn't getting the goaltending they need now from playoff standout Jakob Dobes so there are other issues brewing up north as well. Chicago isn't elite but they're a team that's much better going forward with their captain in the mix and with extra rest here I'll take the home dog at a price I made closer to +112 when making injury adjustments
The over has hit in all five of Joey Daccord’s starts for Seattle this season. Here we have two high-powered offenses, with Utah averaging 3.80 goals per game and Seattle averaging 3.70, we should be in for a high-scoring affair. I’m going to keep riding the Over with Daccord in net.
Prices on +1.5 so far this hockey season have just been outrageous so this is pretty fair at least in that regard. Seattle has played among the fewest home games in the NHL with three (2-1). The Kraken are scoring way better than most expected at 3.70 goals per game. A total of 16 of their 22 skaters having scored at least once and 12 having scored multiple times. For Utah, this is one of those one-game trips in the middle of a home-heavy run that players hate. So anyone moderately hurt likely stayed home. Top blueliner John Marino (2G, 3A) is in question.
FanDuel. I like the Golden Knights at this price. Vegas is coming off a 6-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Tuesday. The Golden Knights had plenty of opportunities in that loss; they just couldn't get much past Andrei Vasilevskiy, who stopped 32 of 34 shots. I already played the Blues a couple of times this season, and there will be more good spots to back them at home. I just don't think this is one of them. St. Louis goalie Joel Hofer has been good, but he could face heavy fire Thursday night against a Vegas offense that ranks fourth in shots on goal and seventh in power-play percentage. I'll back the Golden Knights -120 for one unit. Good up to -130.