Getting this total at six is a bit of an overreaction to Game 1's 5-4 score. Carolina has allowed more than two goals just twice in 14 playoff games, and both of those came in the first game of a series after a layoff. I also expect Canes' goaltender Frederik Anderson to get back into form after a rare off night where he allowed five goals on 23 shots. I see more of a low-scoring grinder on Thursday between the two top defenses in the playoffs.

I'm backing Vegas to get the sweep tonight. This game is being priced like the Golden Knights haven't dominated the first three games. I think it should be closer to -115. Vegas goalie Carter Hart has been a wall with a .942 save percentage in the series. It's hard to believe but the vaunted Colorado offense have just four goals at full strength in the first three games. The Avalanche also has some key players banged up, including star Nathan MacKinnon, who is dealing with a lower body injury. The Vegas' defense has been elite in the playoffs and I expect that to continue in Game 4. The Golden Knights move on to the Stanley Cup Final.

I took the Wild in Game 4 at home and while they delivered with a 3-2 OT win, I knew I was going to back Dallas here. I think the Stars are the better team and expect them to win the series. Dallas is 27-12-4 at home this season and they have done very well in this spot, going 22-7-3 following a loss. This series has 7 games written all over it, but I like the Stars to take the pivotal Game 5 at home.

I like the Under in Game 4 if you can get a six. That's the key number because eight straight meetings between Utah and Vegas have produced six goals or less. Mammoth goaltender Karel Vejmelka has stepped up his game in the postseason with a 2.36 goals against average and .916 save percentage. Meanwhile, Vegas' Carter Hart allowed four goals on just 12 shots in Game 3. However, before that poor outing, Hart went 7-1 with a .932 save percentage. I expect Hart to play better on Monday, so I'll go under six goals for a half unit.

I can certainly see Edmonton winning this game and evening the series but the Ducks being +115 at home after scoring 13 goals in the last two games if kind of crazy. There is talk the Oilers may go with Tristan Jarry in net for Game 4. While Connor Ingram is struggling, a potential move to Jarry smells more like desperation. He's averaging 3.32 goals against this season and Anaheim hung 13 goals in three games versus Jarry this season. Edmonton is just 19-17-6 on the road, so I'll take the Ducks at plus money in The Pond.

Nathan MacKinnon led the NHL in goals during the regular season but has yet to find the back of the net through three playoff games vs. the Kings. History says that streak could come to an end on Sunday. MacKinnon went more than three games without a goal just twice during the regular season. He enters Sunday with two days rest and despite not posting a goal yet, MacKinnon leads Colorado in scoring chances in the playoffs. I'll take a shot at plus money for a half unit.

Now that Flyers goaltender Dan Vladar has been confirmed for Saturday after an injury scare in Game 3, I'm backing Philadelphia to get the sweep at home. Hockey is an interesting sport because teams with great goaltending that get hot late in the season can make a title run. The Flyers fit that description. Philadelphia is 17-5 in its last 22 games and Vladar has been fantastic over that stretch. He's 12-3 in his last 15 starts, allowing two goals or less 10 times. I expect the Penguins to fight hard but the Flyers have been by far the more physical team in this series. I like Philly to end it tonight.

I like the Wild to even the series on Saturday. Game 3 was a double OT thriller that was one of the best hockey games I saw all season. It could have gone either way but the difference was Minnesota going just 1-for-7 with a man advantage. The Wild had the NHL's third-best power play during the regular season, so I expect to see that pick up in Game 4. Dallas is a great road team and I still like them to win the series, although I think it goes seven games. I'll back the Wild at home in Game 4.

Ottawa lost two really tough games on the road but I like them to rebound Thursday at home. The Senators closed the regular season 9-1-1 at home, which included a 6-3 win over Carolina on April 5. Despite being down 0-2, goaltender Linus Ullmark has been fantastic, stopping 70 of 75 shots. He has a .917 save percentage in his last 11 starts. Ottawa missed a couple of great scoring opportunities late in the double OT loss Monday or this series would be 1-1. If the Senators can get off to a faster start at home, I like their chances in Game 3.

Sometimes styles make fights and that's been the case in this series. Toronto has won five straight over the Lightning and is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. That includes going 4-1 in Tampa Bay. The moneyline of around -200 is a little high and that is allowing us to grab +1.5 at just -125. The other factor here is the first night back from the Olympic break can produce some sluggish games. I'll trust the recent trends and take the Maple Leafs to keep the game close.

It's hard not to like the Penguins with the way their playing right now. Pittsburgh is a stellar 14-7-4 away from home this season and has won three-straight on this road trip. Goalie Stuart Skinner is red-hot, going 6-0-1 with a 1.34 GAA during that span. Vancouver has lost 12 of its last 13 games and is a dismal 5-15-3 at home. Look for the Pens to keep it rolling on Sunday.

I love this Devils team and they enter Sunday 5-1 in their last six games. Seattle is on the opposite end of the spectrum, losing five of its last six. New Jersey has also dominated this series of late, winning six straight. During that span, the Devils held Seattle to two goals or less each time. I'll back the Devils to win their fourth straight on this road trip.

This is a tough spot for the Penguins. I gave out Pittsburgh last night and noted goalie Stuart Skinner was hot. Skinner held Calgary to one goal and is now 6-0-1 in his last seven starts. However, it doesn't look like we'll get a Skinner revenge game in his return to Edmonton. After consecutive starts, the Penguins are expected to use Arturs Silovs in net tonight. Pittsburgh is playing its third straight road game and the Calgary/Edmonton back-to-back is always tough. The Oilers have won eight of the last nine meetings with all the victories coming by 2+ goals. Also, 14 of Edmonton's last 16 wins have been by 2+ goals. I played -1 at BetRivers but would also bet -1.5 for a half unit.

I like the Penguins in this spot. Pittsburgh is 12-7-4 on the road and one of the best 5-on-5 teams in the NHL. That's key here because Calgary has been the league's worst 5-on-5 team in the month of January. Stuart Skinner draws his second straight start in net for the Pens and he's been hot of late, going 5-1-0 with a 1.67 GAA and .931 save percentage in his last six starts. Pittsburgh has won four of its last five road games. I like that trend to continue tonight in Calgary.

I had the Rangers on Saturday and I'm going back to them here. This is a tough spot for Minnesota playing its fourth straight road game. The Wild have scored just four goals in the first three and things won't get any easier on Monday against New York's defense. I'll back the Rangers at -120 to win their second straight game.