Nick Suzuki might be one of the league's most underappreciated players, and the value he adds to this Canadiens roster can't be overstated. He's expected to miss some time with an upper body injury and for a roster already thin up top this is a big blow. Montreal also isn't getting the goaltending they need now from playoff standout Jakob Dobes so there are other issues brewing up north as well. Chicago isn't elite but they're a team that's much better going forward with their captain in the mix and with extra rest here I'll take the home dog at a price I made closer to +112 when making injury adjustments

Anaheim elected to start backup goalie Ville Husso in the first of their NY double against the Rangers. That means all signs point to starting goalie Lukas Dostal getting the nod against the Isles and Ilya Sorokin. I don't make my total 6 for this particular game with that match-up against a Ducks side playing a back-to-back. Adjusting for match-up and situation, I'm closer to 5.5 at -120, so the ability to grab a flat 6 makes the under a bet for us, with both teams struggling to generate offense at even strength.

The Flyers are extremely limited right now, and the underlying metrics paint a troubling picture for last year's surprise team. One thing that has been consistent, though, is that Joseph Woll is currently outplaying de facto starter Dan Vladar and should start to see more starts. For Ottawa, this is a group built on suppressing chances and the definition of an under-profiling team, with Artem Zub's return as well. I know getting ahead of the market assuming Ullmark (OTT) vs. Woll (PHI) can be tricky, but if that's the confirmed match-up, I believe this total closes 5 over -120, so we needed to move early.

Nobody asks you how you accumulate points in the NHL but every resume, especially early in the year, isn't created equally. Edmonton is racking up wins but doing it at the expense of teams like the Canucks, Sharks, Kraken, and other Pacific division lightweights. Utah meanwhile has played a tough schedule to date and fared quite well thus far. In my opinion this number should be closer to Edmonton -109 so we'll take the road underdog and capitalize on early perception even if the Oilers do get Zach Hyman back for the game.

Anaheim goes into tonight's 2nd leg of a home and home with Calgary down the services of a 40 goal scorer in Cutter Gauthier in a forward group that's already rather thin on paper. The Ducks will also get an upgrade in net from back-up Ville Husso to normal starter Lukas Dostal. Calgary is one of the league's worst teams being done in by poor finishing and abnormally poor goaltending. I think finishing remains a long term concern for the Flames while their goals saved above expected can eventually normalize for Dustin Wolf and Devin Cooley. There are plenty of 6.5 U (-120) out there but have no issues going under 6 even given potential volatility.

Ottawa will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days leaning into a back-up goalie against a rested Blues side; little to say I don't get to this number as Ottawa continues to deal with injuries most notably to Jake Sanderson on the blue line. He was ruled out for Monday and I believe unlikely to return at home here as well. My number assuming a Hofer - Ersson start is closer to Blues -101 adjusting for the situation and key absences so we'll click a bet on the road underdog.

Utah may have lost 6-1 to the Boston Bruins last time out, but that was a true disaster class in goaltending that doomed them from the start. This Mammoth team takes money nearly every game in the market, and rightfully so, given the overall talent upgrade. Meanwhile, I think last year was a bit of a mirage for Buffalo, and water eventually meets its level in 2026. We saw them shut down by the Stars on Thursday, and the underlying metrics suggested the final was somewhat indicative of how the game should have gone. My true number here is Utah -116, so taking +100 is a straightforward click

I'm a big picture seller of the Penguins this season mainly because I don't have much confidence in what they're going to be icing every night on the blue line. The shutout performance against the Flyers had more to do with Philly issues in my opinion than anything else. Montreal has an ability to attack with speed and the Pens best defensive approach will be to match that firepower against Sid's boyhood team. I made this total 6.5 U -115 so happy to go over an affordable 6 on Saturday

Vegas is a different team in 2026 than we saw last year with a change in coaching philosophy behind the bench. The roster is built around a transition game and trying to play a bit more offensive with the current roster construction. Anaheim is a team that won't have much in the way of options this year other than outscoring some of their glaring defensive issues. My Number here is much closer to 6.5 shaded to the over than the current number being posted

I'm higher on the Blues than market; let me get that out there right now so I expect to find myself on them frequently early in the season. My number on this game is -151 so the opportunity to take +70 is a click we'll always make. St Louis has sneaky good offensive depth albeit with a questionable blue line but while nobody paid attention last year this team quietly played great hockey after the Olympic break. I wouldn't discourage anyone from backing this team to make the playoffs either before the market catches up here.

LA had become notorious under Coach Hiller for trying to muddy the waters and grind out results; basically playing NHL OT roulette more often than not. I expect that to change with a new voice behind the bench in Peter Laviolette that could lead to higher event hockey than we've seen the past few years. This is close to where the total closed in the playoffs between these team teams and my opening night number here is closer to 6 O -115 so there's value to be had at Ball Arena.

Regardless of how this game goes it's been a successful NHL betting campaign this winter/spring. The Cup Final has been as volatile as I can remember but over the last two games we've seen Carolina come up with the big saves and find their game against the Knights. The injury to Brayden McNabb has changed things defensively for Vegas (even if he's playing) and now the loss of 2nd line center William Karlsson looms large. Carolina's depth both up front and on the back is starting to show up yet more importantly for them is the high ceiling efforts from Brandon Bussi. Vegas has vets, they won't go down easy yet the series dynamic has changed and it's now the Canes cup to win

I came into this series thinking Carolina was going to be able to get to their game faster than Vegas; that held true for all of 20 minutes. The 2nd and 3rd period were lopsided in favor of Vegas as they beat Carolina at their own game winning puck battles, forcing turnovers on the forecheck, and playing a puck possession game. Honestly? I think that can happen again tonight and I show value at +130 or better in this spot. Vegas has already proven they're not content to merely take 1 on the road and feel like the "desperation" is being over compensated for in this spot. Give us the dog as VGK take it back to T-Mobile up 2-0

The scoreline in Game 2 and Game 3 might have read 3-2 OT winner for Carolina but the games haven't been that close. Since a rusty performance in Game 1 we're starting to see Carolina get to their game and assert their aggressive forecheck and physicality. Montreal has generated a grand total of 25 shots on goal COMBINED the last two games and I'm not sure what they can do to change that in Game 4. Carolina has 62% of expected goal share at 5 on 5 as well meaning the only thing close this series has been the final score each of the last two games. I'm closer to Carolina in the -55/-60 range adjusting for current form so I show a decent edge

Carolina's defensive chops were on full display in a "must win" game 2; holding the Canadiens to just five (5) shots through two periods and doing everything they could to suppress scoring chances. When it comes to the playoffs defense travels and I think we see more of the same from the Canes tonight. Meanwhile Montreal showed early this postseason that they're built to win a slug fest in their own barn as well. My total on the game given current form and situation is closer to 5.5 (over -15) so being able to bet under a flat 6 is an opportunity worth taking.