Todd's Picks (1 Live)
The Islanders finish off their So Cal double with a back to back against the Kings. Patrick Roy elected to lean on back-up David Rittich last night and the Isles got goalie'd by the Ducks in a 5-1 loss. LA meanwhile is reeling but the betting market still gives them plenty of respect. Quietly they moved a depth forward earlier today in Warren Foegele not signaling a white flag but interesting for a team fighting to stay alive. I just don't price the Kings the same way as the market so the dog with Ilya Sorokin scheduled to start worth a bet
Short and sweet, speculation Connor McDavid won't be available on Wednesday against Anaheim. The Ducks appear to be close to full speed including the return of top line center Leo Carlsson from injury. Again, not going to over analyze a number where the Ducks close a favorite if 97 can't go so we'll move early on the dog.
Not going to bombard you with word salad in this handicap. Vegas could face a division rival without arguably it's 5 best players in Jack Eichel and Noah Hanifin (still celebrating with Team USA) and a trio of top Canadians in Mitch Marner, Shea Theodore, and Mark Stone potentially being rested after missing practice on Tuesday. If all five players are out this line will move one way and it's worth getting ahead of it today with an educated line-up guess.
We already know the Dallas Stars will be without the services of their leading scorer Miko Raantanen for a bit after he suffered an injury for Team Finland. Dallas also announce Centers Rope Hintz & Radek Faksa are game time decisions as well. I'll also make the claim we could see Dallas load manage minutes for their top D-man Miro Heiskanen as well after seven grueling international games. All of that to say the Kraken are a much healthier/rested bunch fighting for every point at this juncture of the season. I show value all the way down to +137 on the Kraken in this spot.
Heading into the Olympic break we're taking a conservative approach on bet sizing. We're getting to the point of the absurd on this total and I'll take the bait. San Jose hasn't created a ton of chances at 5 on 5 of late regardless of their scorelines. Edmonton hasn't exactly been air tight defensively either but that's also why we have a 7 in play here. My total on the game is 6.64 so under is worth a bet.
Bet sizing plans to be more conservative as we head towards the Olympic break, play accordingly. Buffalo has been white hot; the Sabres have the best record in the league since December 3rd and are firmly in playoff position for the first time in over a decade. That being said the market is starting to catch-up and while I'm generally not bullish on the Kings this price warrants a bet. My fair number for the game is right around -101 so I'll step in front of the runaway freight train known as the Sabres tonight
I'll be short and sweet with my handicap here; the Bruins should be -121 favorites in this spot against a reeling Rangers side. The big question here is the goaltending match-up here and even if we got Korpisalo vs Quick, I show value at the market price of -105 for a bet
Buffalo is in the rare and unenviable spot of playing 5 games in 7 days tonight in Nashville. Buffalo's play has also started to trend down after their prolonged winning streak while being priced at a market peak. Preds come into this game with added rest after being blown out by Vegas on Saturday in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. This number is a substantial discount from where I priced it so we'll make a bigger play than normal given all those details.
Buffalo is playing good hockey right now and has played themselves into a wild card position. We see this as fans and the odds market also sees it and prices them accordingly. When you're in this business long enough it's knowing when to hold/fold a stock and that's where I'm at with Buffalo right now. They're reaching peak market pricing and in my opinion the Flyers are being undervalued. Philadelphia could get Jamie Drysdale and Bobby Brink which only helps the cause and we get the preferred goalie in Dan Vladar. Let's back the better defensive team at a juicy road price where I make the pup close to the +110 range here.
Tampa heads to Pittsburgh for the 2nd of a back to back with a rarity; starting goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy gets the nod after Johanssen started vs the Flyers. The Lightning also lost one of their top scorers Brayden Point on Monday to a knee injury that could sideline him a while. On the other side the Penguins have found their defensive footing registering the best expected goals against across all situations over their last five games. I'm going to expect defense to dominate and a total to only move one way before puck drop.
Columbus elected to part ways with bench boss Dean Evason in favor of veteran HC Rick Bowness to spark this team. Bowness is known for a defense first mentality at his previous stops and I don't anticipate that to change here even if it takes time. Calgary meanwhile has gone through a power outage of late finding it hard to generate chances consistently. This total is just a touch too high for me so anything at even money or better keeps the under in range.
The New York Rangers are a mess; there's no other way to say it right now. They've struggled to score goals all year and now are being plagued by injuries to two of their best players in Igor Shesterkin and Adam Fox. In my opinion the betting market hasn't caught up to proper pricing on them yet and I expect this number to be on the move by gameday. I'm closer to the Sabres -127 and it's why I'd like to get ahead of it in the overnight market and just hope we can avoid a Colten Ellis start in the Sabres crease
Seattle is going to play a lot of hockey during January; 17 games to be exact, and they know every single point is precious in their fight for a playoff spot. Seattle is getting outstanding goaltending from both netminders right now and it's sparked a quiet win streak. I'm looking for that to continue even on the 2nd of a back to back against a rested Bruins team. There's better than a 50/50 shot we see Joonas Korpisalo in net for Boston which is a major downgrade from starter Jeremy Swayman and the team lost a key piece of their blue line in Hampus Lindholm the other night. I'm closer to Seattle being a -110 favorite here so small bet at the current price.
Don't look now but the Leafs actually look like a capable hockey team and are showing a bit of fight. So much of this team's success is tied to their superstar in Auston Matthews and he's found his footing the last few games. Meanwhile the Isles have been propped up by good goaltending despite some scary underlying metrics of late. There is a chance Ilya Sorokin returns to the crease but the loss of Bo Horvat is massive. I expect the Leafs to close in the -120 range and there's a chance William Nylander returns for the game as well