Vancouver will unveil their new look line-up for the 1st time on Sunday; gone is all world D-man Quinn Hughes replaced by Zeev Buium and Marco Rossi. Long term it takes time without a lynch pin on the back end but short term I believe in a bump. NJ meanwhile plays their 3rd game in 4 days, 4th in 6 before heading out to Vegas to start a west coast trip. Devils will also most turn to Jacob Markstrom on the 2nd game of a back to back and he's struggled mightily in the crease all year. This is just too big a price for me as my number is more in the -114 range once every variable is factored into the mix.

This handicap is straight forward for me; the Kings are playing some of the lowest event hockey in the league right now and the Mammoth will be asked to break down their defense without leading scorer Logan Cooley. It appears we'll get Darcy Kuemper vs Karel Vejemelka in net meaning I'm closer to the Kings -119 in this spot. Let's hope the offensive onslaught from beating the Blackhawks continues here for the offensively challenged Kings on the road.

It's rare I'll share a bet that's more speculative than fact but this is a total worth playing now. I'm going to work under the assumption we don't see Lightning starter Andrei Vasilevskiy today after his back-up wasn't present at morning skate. Tampa is getting healthy elsewhere through the lineup and the team is generating chances at a very high level right now. The Isles should be able to generate as well like we saw in their win against the Avs and I expect some high event hockey on the Gulf tonight

Winnipeg has struggled to find consistency this season and it's a job that only gets more difficult without a Vezina winning goaltender to mask deficiencies. Over their last five games the Jets are basically league average in expected goal share but rank 23rd this season. Conversely Buffalo's play can best be described as erratic despite the underwhelming result last time out vs Philly. All things being equal I'm not close to market price here with the Sabres showing value (true number -105/+105). We'll back the dog on the road with an expectation the Jets inability to generate depth scoring continues here.

The Jets are a defense first team and the strength of this team starts in the back end. However things get a little more complicated when you lose a Vezina goaltender and are asking depth pieces to pick up the slack. Unfortunately for WPG they don't have the firepower to play track meets so the structure remains the same. Meanwhile for Buffalo they should get Josh Norris back up front which gives them more pop but they've shown better underlying metrics of late on the defensive end. My total on this game is 5.5 O -120 so while we don't have a massive edge at 6 (even) there's still enough to make a bet.

Both of these teams limp into the holiday dealing with a rash of injuries. Toronto is expected to be down Matthew Knies and Auston Matthews yet again (just to name a few) meanwhile Columbus is banged up as well with top scorer Kiril Marchenko joining Boone Jenner among those expected to miss time. Zach Werenski is listed as a true game time decision but by the time his status is confirmed this total could be 6 flat. Accounting for those absences and defensive form for Toronto trending up I make this total 6 under -115 meaning 6.5 is no doubt worth a wager.

Minnesota was as leaky as any team in the league to start the season and couldn't come up with a timely save; that has since changed and they're returning to their defensive structure. The Wild are also down a few offensive pieces in Hartman, Tarasenko, and Rossi that limit their offensive upside forcing the team to play low event games. The Pens are the surprise of the league thus far and that's largely because of the solid goaltending they've had from a trio of guys. My total on this game is more in the 5.5 over -20 range so under at 6 even is a bet worth making.

Utah and Vegas are both beginning to find their footing on the defensive side of the ice but are parlaying it into different results. Utah has now lost three straight games with a scoreline of 3-2 and is showing a commitment to team defense with their current offensive form. Vegas has the best expected goals against league wide over their last five games and some slight tweaks on the blue line has helped insulate erratic goaltending. Current market is well over my projection for the game so like we often do we'll be rooting for low event hockey from SLC.

Columbus may be weary with travel coming into this game making the tilt against the Leafs their 3rd in 4 nights but I don't come anywhere near this price. Toronto is down 2 of its top 3 offensive threats in Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies and that's before we look at a blue line down a top defender in Chris Tanev. Yes, Joseph Woll has stabilized the goaltending position but I actually make the Jackets -117 in this spot so I'm not waiting to take this price.

Don't look now but the Colorado Avalanche are playing defense at an extremely high level to start the season. Coach Bednar's bunch is making life easier for Scott Wedgewood in net behind a defense that's #1 in the leagu in expected goals allowed per game across all situations. Utah hasn't been as good but they're still a top 7 defensive unit and an offense that's generating chances at a league average level. I made this total 5.5 flat but understand why books give proper respect to the star power up front for Colorado and their high end scoring talent.

Offense has ruled the day in the Stanley Cup through the first 3 games; 23 goals are the most we've seen during that span going all the way back to 1982. While there were seven goals scored last game it was the lowest event game of the series from an underlying metrics standpoint. Edmonton has shaken up their lines for the pivotal Game 4 and given the embarrassing effort last game, I fully expect their emphasis to be on the defensive end of the ice in an attempt to insulate Skinner cutting down on undisciplined penalties and odd man rushes. Over has been the order of the day thus far but in my opinion that changes tonight.

Florida put forth a much more lethargic effort than we'd seen from the defending champions since the start of the Leafs' series. I don't believe we'll get anything close to that level of intensity tonight in Raleigh. Florida is still dealing with injuries to key personnel and we don't know who (if anyone) will return tonight. However we do know the intensity will be better and it's hard to overlook for as well as Carolina played they beat Bobrovsky once in Game 4. Underlying metrics for Florida offensively haven't been great but that's why tonight's game is being priced at a PK. I'll take the discount off the embarrassing shutout loss with an expectation Florida finds a way to move into the Cup Final.

I have the slimmest of margins separating these two teams in the Western conference and I'll make the case if you were to blindly bet the dog in every game this series you might make money (just because I say it, don't do it). Edmonton found their stride after dropping the first two games to LA and it was their defensive poise that stood out vs Vegas. Dallas' overall team defense leaves something to be desired for me as I'm concerned about blue line depth. Even with Connor Brown a GTD decision anything on Edmonton +105 or better was going to trigger a bet so it's back to the well (pun intended) we go.

I'll save you the narrative of road Connor Helleybuck; it remains a thing until it's not. The Jets defensively have been outstanding this postseason; ranking 2nd in expected goals against across all situations behind just the Panthers. Jake Oettinger has dazzled on the other end for Dallas as well giving up two goals in Game 5 that looked more like pinball than anything else. I understand the concern of elimination games getting loose late but both teams are capable of stymieing their opponents tonight; first team to 3 gets the W

Let's get the easy question out of the way: do I think the Capitals win tonight? I do not. Do I think they lose as often as the betting market suggests? No I do not. Here we are; having our hand forced with a price that's run too far in a game poised to be tight checking and low scoring. Carolina is a difficult out and Freddie Andersen has played at a high level all series but that's not stopping us from taking a small stab on the road dog here anything north of +205