Heading into the Olympic break we're taking a conservative approach on bet sizing. We're getting to the point of the absurd on this total and I'll take the bait. San Jose hasn't created a ton of chances at 5 on 5 of late regardless of their scorelines. Edmonton hasn't exactly been air tight defensively either but that's also why we have a 7 in play here. My total on the game is 6.64 so under is worth a bet.

Bet sizing plans to be more conservative as we head towards the Olympic break, play accordingly. Buffalo has been white hot; the Sabres have the best record in the league since December 3rd and are firmly in playoff position for the first time in over a decade. That being said the market is starting to catch-up and while I'm generally not bullish on the Kings this price warrants a bet. My fair number for the game is right around -101 so I'll step in front of the runaway freight train known as the Sabres tonight

I'll be short and sweet with my handicap here; the Bruins should be -121 favorites in this spot against a reeling Rangers side. The big question here is the goaltending match-up here and even if we got Korpisalo vs Quick, I show value at the market price of -105 for a bet

Buffalo is in the rare and unenviable spot of playing 5 games in 7 days tonight in Nashville. Buffalo's play has also started to trend down after their prolonged winning streak while being priced at a market peak. Preds come into this game with added rest after being blown out by Vegas on Saturday in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. This number is a substantial discount from where I priced it so we'll make a bigger play than normal given all those details.

Buffalo is playing good hockey right now and has played themselves into a wild card position. We see this as fans and the odds market also sees it and prices them accordingly. When you're in this business long enough it's knowing when to hold/fold a stock and that's where I'm at with Buffalo right now. They're reaching peak market pricing and in my opinion the Flyers are being undervalued. Philadelphia could get Jamie Drysdale and Bobby Brink which only helps the cause and we get the preferred goalie in Dan Vladar. Let's back the better defensive team at a juicy road price where I make the pup close to the +110 range here.

Tampa heads to Pittsburgh for the 2nd of a back to back with a rarity; starting goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy gets the nod after Johanssen started vs the Flyers. The Lightning also lost one of their top scorers Brayden Point on Monday to a knee injury that could sideline him a while. On the other side the Penguins have found their defensive footing registering the best expected goals against across all situations over their last five games. I'm going to expect defense to dominate and a total to only move one way before puck drop.

Columbus elected to part ways with bench boss Dean Evason in favor of veteran HC Rick Bowness to spark this team. Bowness is known for a defense first mentality at his previous stops and I don't anticipate that to change here even if it takes time. Calgary meanwhile has gone through a power outage of late finding it hard to generate chances consistently. This total is just a touch too high for me so anything at even money or better keeps the under in range.

The New York Rangers are a mess; there's no other way to say it right now. They've struggled to score goals all year and now are being plagued by injuries to two of their best players in Igor Shesterkin and Adam Fox. In my opinion the betting market hasn't caught up to proper pricing on them yet and I expect this number to be on the move by gameday. I'm closer to the Sabres -127 and it's why I'd like to get ahead of it in the overnight market and just hope we can avoid a Colten Ellis start in the Sabres crease

Seattle is going to play a lot of hockey during January; 17 games to be exact, and they know every single point is precious in their fight for a playoff spot. Seattle is getting outstanding goaltending from both netminders right now and it's sparked a quiet win streak. I'm looking for that to continue even on the 2nd of a back to back against a rested Bruins team. There's better than a 50/50 shot we see Joonas Korpisalo in net for Boston which is a major downgrade from starter Jeremy Swayman and the team lost a key piece of their blue line in Hampus Lindholm the other night. I'm closer to Seattle being a -110 favorite here so small bet at the current price.

Don't look now but the Leafs actually look like a capable hockey team and are showing a bit of fight. So much of this team's success is tied to their superstar in Auston Matthews and he's found his footing the last few games. Meanwhile the Isles have been propped up by good goaltending despite some scary underlying metrics of late. There is a chance Ilya Sorokin returns to the crease but the loss of Bo Horvat is massive. I expect the Leafs to close in the -120 range and there's a chance William Nylander returns for the game as well

New Jersey is having a challenge generating chances and the resurgent Blue Jackets defense might not be the answer they're looking for here. We have the goalie match I preferred with Jake Allen in one crease and Jet Greaves on the other side. My projected total for this game is below market value here meaning we'll root for goaltending and defense like we often do in the league.

I'm not one for using narratives to make a bet but when a narrative collides with an undervalued team trending the right direction it creates the perfect storm (pun intended). Carolina has no doubt had this game circled since being dispatched by Florida last postseason and the Canes are playing some of their best hockey right now with the return of Jacob Slavin on D. Florida is also getting results but their xG goal share of 50% is dwarfed by Carolina at 58% over the L5. I may be too high on Carolina compared to market but my fair price for this game is -141 so I'm happy to lay the discounted tag.

Washington struggled to break through offensively on the road while surrendering 10 goals over a 2 game span. Returning to familiar surroundings should mean a renewed emphasis on defensive assignments trying to grind down on Leafs team that's really struggling to generate. I would have preferred a Woll - Thompson match-up but won't downgrade the bet too much with Hildeby. I do see this a bit higher variance so rather than laying -20 to go under 6 I prefer the + money at 5.5 for a partial position.

Quinn Hughes is a massive difference maker and I don't believe his addition is being properly factored into the Wild pricing on a nightly basis. CBJ has underachieved this year despite a renewed commitment to better team defense. My projection here is Wild -127 with Wallsteadt vs Greaves so there's enough here for a smaller bet on the road team.

Vancouver will unveil their new look line-up for the 1st time on Sunday; gone is all world D-man Quinn Hughes replaced by Zeev Buium and Marco Rossi. Long term it takes time without a lynch pin on the back end but short term I believe in a bump. NJ meanwhile plays their 3rd game in 4 days, 4th in 6 before heading out to Vegas to start a west coast trip. Devils will also most turn to Jacob Markstrom on the 2nd game of a back to back and he's struggled mightily in the crease all year. This is just too big a price for me as my number is more in the -114 range once every variable is factored into the mix.