I had a chance to see Game 1 up close and personal between these Pacific division rivals. After 60 minutes I came away with a few major observations: one of which that the Ducks are going to be the faster team all series but that Vegas won't stray from their identity. Anaheim was the better team at 5 on 5 but if you're going to win games against a structured opponent like the VGK squandering chances won't work. I really believe we're in for a longer series than oddsmakers think and while it's scary fading Vegas off that lackluster effort Monday I really believe the Ducks will bear down and convert against Hart. This price is too much for me to pass up here.
Buffalo dominated Boston with a +39 shot and +8 goal margin, while Montreal struggled against the Lightning, posting a -40 shot differential. The Canadiens were outshot 29-9 in Game 7 yet pulled off a win. Buffalo finished the regular season mid-pack in high-danger shots for and against, while Montreal was near the bottom with a -39 high-danger differential. Montreal relies on its power play, but Buffalo’s penalty kill is elite (4th in the league). Montreal is fatigued after its taxing Game 7 and tough travel back home. Buffalo's speed (3rd in NHL for bursts over 20 MPH), depth, fresher legs, and Alex Lyon's strong goaltending (1.14 GAA) provide an advantage. In contrast, Montreal’s Jakub Dobes ranks 30th in GAA, exposing their ongoing goalie issues.
This is high (at least one book has under -200), but I simply won't play +1.5 for exactly what happened last night in Ducks-Golden Knights Game 1: A tie game with five minutes left ended as a two-goal result due to an empty-netter. So why not -1.5? Because then I'm toast in overtime. The Wild clearly missed the injured Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin in Game 1, and neither will play tonight. Colorado hasn't lost in the postseason yet, although I'd expect Minny to get at least one game back home. On home ice, +1.5 is a different story. The Avs might get back blueliner Josh Manson from injury tonight.
Jack Eichel enters the second round as the driving force behind the Vegas offense. He tallied 9 points (1G, 8A) in the 6-game series against Utah. More importantly, his ice time ranks among the highest for forwards in the league, averaging 24:22 per game. Serving as the primary distributor on the top line and the focal point of the top power-play unit, Eichel is involved in nearly every high-danger scoring chance Vegas generates. Anaheim’s defense is a major liability, especially in Game 1 when both teams are still feeling each other out. Adjustments are typically made after the opener.
Anaheim won all three regular-season meetings by the same score of 4-3, but the Ducks didn't face current Knights No. 1 goalie Carter Hart in any of those -- or have they faced Vegas since John Tortorella took over as head coach. Completely different club since then. Could be a bit of an Anaheim trap spot, too, after the upset of Edmonton in Round 1. This is new territory for most of the Ducks.
Not going to over think this game 2 approach as I'm going under the total of 5.5. The Flyers generated next to nothing at 5 on 5 and with Owen Tippett again listed as doubtful not sure much changes. Meanwhile for Carolina, they've shown throughout the playoffs their goal is to get a lead and take the air out of things; something they've become adept at doing in the past. I expect there to be a little more offense in Game 2 than what we saw in Game 1 but Carolina's defense still provides a tough nut to crack for a young Flyers' team.
What's the smart play? Probably Wild +1.5, but I fear the Nathan MacKinnon empty-netter and the two-goal Minnesota loss -- goalies are getting pulled with like 6 minutes left these days whereas usually in the final minute or so in the regular season. NHL playoffs are tough, man, not getting the +1/-1 or a total that I so prefer. Why not playing much of late. So I'll just have to eat this number and bump up the wager a bit. Top-line Minny forward Joel Eriksson Ek is in some doubt.
Wow a total of 5. This I was not expecting. I worked in Tampa a long time. When the Bolts won their first Stanley Cup in 2004, I was the sports front page designer. Have it hanging on my wall (Bucs' first Super Bowl title, too). So I know them and I know all their beat writers (although not really a thing these days, which is sad). Wasn't going to play this game because I root for the Bolts just for my friends but really like the Canadiens. I have no idea who will win but yeah at 5 have to. This is great for me as I can just root for offense. Extremely rare to get a 5 this early in the playoffs.
This 6.5 just popped. Would not play 6 (I mean might push). Yes, the past two in the series have seen nine goals scored in each, definitely ruining a parlay or two. But even U7.5 would have lost so I guess a win for not playing. I fully expect back to lower-scoring hockey in an elimination game for the Mammoth. Rare that elimination games are high scoring.
Well, a 7.5 just popped at BetRivers. As you can see, it's crazy juiced to the Under and I'm sure it's an alternate. But I wanted to play something tonight in this one, and I wasn't getting any good offers among our limited ones. If Ducks +1.5 were reasonable, that'd be it. Tough to bet playoff hockey without a full menu (why all my NHL SGPs on CBS Sports betting site are generally winning because I get to pick what I want), so I'll have to take a 3-3 regulation draw win in an elimination game.
Carter Hart's honeymoon phase under Coach Tortorella has worn off with back to back mediocre efforts between the pipes in Salt Lake. Fortunately for Hart the defensive structure of the Knights insulates him most evenings and I'm looking for that trend to continue here. The first two games in this series saw a combined 7.71 expected goals at 5 on 5 compared to 10.33 the last two games. Game state made each of the last two contests more wide open especially when teams were chasing multi-goal deficits. Given the swing we'll see tonight I'm looking for a low event tight checking well disciplined effort from both sides lending itself to an under position.
This has been a type of game the Oilers have won in the past few postseasons with their backs to the wall. I am wondering if Connor McDavid is hurting because he hasn't quite looked his dominant self yet, and Edmonton has a goaltending problem. But I'll trust the veteran team to pull out perhaps the last home game of the season and force Game 6. Few Ducks players have been in this spot before as playoff newbies.
The Stars are looking to rebound after an overtime loss that featured several easily correctable mistakes. Throughout the season, they have consistently bounced back after defeats (22-7-3) and excelled with two days of rest (11-3-1). Wyatt Johnston has stepped up in Roope Hintz's absence, recording 21 points (12 goals, 9 assists) in the final 20 regular-season games and extending his playoff point streak to four games. These teams are evenly matched, evidenced by the home squad's impressive 8-2 record over the past 10 meetings.
I took the Wild in Game 4 at home and while they delivered with a 3-2 OT win, I knew I was going to back Dallas here. I think the Stars are the better team and expect them to win the series. Dallas is 27-12-4 at home this season and they have done very well in this spot, going 22-7-3 following a loss. This series has 7 games written all over it, but I like the Stars to take the pivotal Game 5 at home.
A little surprised the Mammoth are home dogs considering they have won the past two in the series. Knights goalie Carter Hart has gotten worse as the series has gone along while Mammoth counterpart Karel Vejmelka has gotten better. Utah's depth has been a difference as 12 different players have contributed at least a point. Four guys have two goals already, while six players have contributed at least two points.