1 Expert Pick
The wheels have come off in Anaheim, as after an encouraging break from the gate, the Ducks have floated down the 57 Freeway, disappearing from the Pacific Division race with seven straight losses. Only once in that span has Anaheim scored as many as three goals, as the power play has dried up for new HC Greg Cronin. John Gibson in goal still has a 2.64 GAA, however, and capable of stealing a game, but at the current rate not easy to envision the Ducks solving Darcy Kuemper, motivated to match Charlie Lindgren's 38 saves in 39 shots by the Kings last night in the Caps' 2-1 win up the I-5 Freeway in L.A. Play Caps-Ducks "Under"
Make no mistake, the Coyotes are an improved team. But Arizona's offense is still a bit tepid, and even in the current mini-uptick, the Yotes are not burning up the scoreboard, as only once in their last seven games have they exceeded three goals. Work in goal, however, continues to be good, and Connor Ingram now getting more consistent work as his GAA has dropped to a superb 2.49 on the season after recent stellar efforts. That might keep Arizona close, but the Yotes are also going to have to solve the AVs' Alexander Georgiev, arguably the league's hottest goalie at the moment (three straight wins; saves on 84 of 89 shots that span) as Colorado surges. Play Avs-Coyotes "Under"
This recent Nashville wave has been a good one to ride, as the Preds have been winning like they did back in their heyday. It's six wins on the spin for Nashville as new HC Andrew Brunette has apparently found the right recipe, especially on defense, where tighter checking at mid-ice (maybe a reflection of the days of Barry Trotz...who, maybe not coincidentally, is back with the Preds in the front office) has certainly helped GK Juuse Saros, whose GAA (now 2.99) and saves (now .900) have both improved drastically the past couple of weeks. Thus a goalie edge to Nashville with Flip Gustavsson sitting on a 3.68 GAA for the Wild in their nets tonight. Play Preds on Money Line
At home this season, the Maple Leafs are over the total in seven of nine games, often finding 9+ goals. That makes sense when you see that over the last month, Toronto is averaging 3.7 goals/game at home and allowing 4.0/game more. Over the last six games on the road, the Kraken have gone over each time. Seattle's numbers back that up, with the team scoring 3.5 and allowing 3.5 goals/game as the visitor. These two have met four times, averaging 7.5 total goals/game. Grab the over.
Both the Sabres and Blues let up shots, and the goals tend to follow, with each allowing 3+ goals/game on the year. It's not hard to envision a sloppy game that favors offensive production, and based on how these two have fared in past meetings, the over is the play. Six of the past seven games between Buffalo and St. Louis have gone over 6.5, with the lone under seeing six goals. Two of Buffalo's last three road games has gone over and three of St. Louis's last five at home have flown over. Jordan Kyrou seems well-positioned for a goal, if you'd prefer to load up a scorer. He has three goals in his last four against the Sabres.
This is the "oh my, please don't kill their spirit" game when the Bruins host the Sharks. All the numbers suggest that Boston is about to blow out San Jose, and past meetings back up the idea. Expect 35+ shots and 5+ goals from the Bruins here. If you'd rather not bet the puckline as shown here, a bet on Boston winning in regulation, winning the first period, or a David Pastrnak goal paired with 5+ shots are all great ways to attack this lopsided affair.
The Knights are slumping, but that's been on the offense for the most part. Adin Hill has been terrific overall in net with a 1.96 GAA and two shutouts, and he's opposed by one of my favorite netminders in Thatcher Demko, who has a 1.59 home GAA. Have to say it surprises me this is 6.5 ... which likely means doom.
What is it with Toronto sports teams? They seem to perplex me more than any other city. Need to end my man crush with that town but love all the uniforms (and Canadian female accents), so not sure I can cut the cord. Seattle has lost two straight, including a bad one Tuesday in Chicago when the Kraken also lost third-leading scorer Jaden Schwartz (15 points) to injury, and he's out here. Seattle is 4-11 in its past 15 away. Leafs netminder Joseph Woll has won three of four and Toronto is 4-1 in its past five at home.
I'm not going to overthink this one. The Avs are streaking, and this simply isn't a good matchup for the Coyotes. I like the Avs to win by 2+ goals here.
Two meh offensive teams. The Caps were upset winners at the Kings last night but only scored two and have totaled three goals in the past three games. Darcy Kuemper gets the call in net tonight and he's solid. The Under is 4-0 in the Caps' past four away. The Ducks were a nice story early but have lost seven in a row and scored more than two just once. Both should struggle to get 4 goals; we just need them not to both reach 3 obviously. Just out of curiosity, I went and looked at the price of Under 7.5 goals to avoid the 3+3 = 7 scenario, but that's priced -330.
This is a good example why it's so truly important to shop around: Kenny White makes good points on Under this game ... but he got 6. We get the FanDuel special of 6.5 (juiced but that's the price we pay), but as I've mentioned before that site often flips this number to 5.5 simply to be different/draw action, I'm guessing, and in fact this opened at 5.5 so probably wasn't available when Kenny picked. Preds at home = Under 6.5 almost every time. Nashville has won six in a row and given up just 14 goals. Minnesota played much better defensively Tuesday in its first game under new head coach John Hynes.
The Wild are 1-0 under new HC John Hynes and 1-0 under. The Wild are 6-2 under their last eight games because the offense did not score more than three goals once in those eight games. Nashville has won six straight games, allowing just 14 goals during the streak.
I have the Blues rated slightly better than the Sabres. The Blues are 6-3 at home while Buffalo is 5-7 in their past 12 games. The 24-year old Buffalo goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been far better at home than on the road. Buffalo is off a 3-1 upset of the NY Rangers. My model has the Blues -155.
Only two of Philadelphia's last 12 games have seen seven or more goals scored in regulation. Goalie Carter Hart has a 2.57 goals against average and .911 save percentage. New Jersey goalie Vitek Vanecek is having his worst season of his four year career. His career goals against is just 2.68 but 3.49 in 2023-24. He had played better on the road with a 3.02 goals against average. I think Philly keeps this close and low scoring.