The Edmonton Oilers are the more talented team and should elevate their play in this rivalry matchup. Edmonton is ranked 7th in shots against and has a +60 shot differential. Toronto is ranked 30th in shots allowed and owns a -127 shot differential. Both teams have comparable PK units, but the Oilers are ranked 2nd in PP% while the Maple Leafs are 31st. Tristan Jarry is expected to start in goal after the big trade on Friday. He’s a major upgrade over Stuart Skinner, sporting a 2.66 GAA and .909 save percentage. The last time these teams played, Toronto won 4-3 in Edmonton despite getting outshot 48-28. Mitch Marner played a big role, and he’s now in Vegas. These Canadian teams take revenge games seriously.
This will be the Stars' 6th game in 9 days. Research shows Dallas is one of the NHL's most fatigue-sensitive teams. Dallas loses -9.26 fantasy points per game in back-to-back/fatigued situations. This is the second-worst fatigue impact in the entire NHL. Dallas defeated the Wild 5-2 in October despite getting outshot 41-25. The Stars scored two power-play goals and two empty-net goals. With a revenge game against Florida on deck, Dallas may not be fully focused here. Additionally, the Stars lead the NHL in hits taken (719), while Minnesota ranks 25th-fewest (534), which adds to the previous data point of playing six games in 9 days.
Starting with my power rankings: Dallas sits 7th, while the Jets check in at 21st. The Stars rank 15th in shots allowed per game, whereas Winnipeg is 24th. Both teams have negative shot differentials, but Dallas's -53 edges out Winnipeg's -89. Most tellingly, the Jets have stumbled to a 3-7 record since losing star goalie Connor Hellebuyck to injury, including a 0-6 mark against winning teams. The Jets have called up rookie Domenic DiVincentiis, and he could get the start between the pipes. That’s a little bit of an unknown. Light play on the road team.
This is a spot I always look for. The Wild beat the Flames 2-0 despite getting outshot 36-19 on November 9th. Minnesota is 8-2 in its last ten games, six of which went to overtime/shootout. They have been outshot in their last two games, 66-48, and just defeated the Oilers in Edmonton. The Wild have a -72 shot differential, while the Flames are surprisingly +19 despite having only nine wins. They have been extremely unlucky, ranking 30th in PDO (shooting percentage & save percentage). Minnesota is ranked 9th and due for negative regression. The Flames recently defeated Dallas and Florida. They lost 1-0 in OT to the Carolina Hurricanes last week, who are second in my power rankings. Calgary can win this game!
This is a huge revenge game for the road team. Montreal defeated the Senators in overtime last month despite Ottawa holding a 3-2 lead in the third period. Ottawa is ranked 4th in shots allowed per game and has a +11 shot differential, while the Canadiens are ranked 17th with a -66 shot differential. The Senators rank first in Face-off win percentage, while Montreal is ranked 14th. Ottawa has four one-goal losses out of their last five defeats, while Montreal has had two one-goal losses out of their previous five. The Senators are almost at full strength with Brady Tkachuk back on the ice. Montreal will be without defenseman Jayden Struble, who missed Monday’s practice. I have Ottawa 14 spots higher in my power rankings.
The Ottawa Senators are ranked 3rd in shots against per game (25.3) with a +25 shot differential, while the Blues are ranked 16th (27.7) with a -55 shot differential. Ottawa owns the league's top-ranked Face-off win percentage (58.8%) while St. Louis sits at 13th (50.7%). Brady Tkachuk returns from injury and should be fired up playing in his hometown. The Blues return home from a five-game road trip and face many distractions with the Thanksgiving holiday. Canada celebrates the holiday in October. I love playing good Canadian teams against US teams on Black Friday.
The Capitals eliminated the Montreal Canadiens in the playoffs last year. Washington will be playing the second game of back-to-back contests after scoring seven goals (including one empty-net goal) on just 21 shots yesterday (33.3% shooting). They will rely on Charlie Lindgren, who is a notable downgrade from Logan Thompson in goal. Home teams with at least one day of rest are winning at a 60% clip against zero-rest visitors, and this will be Washington's first trip to Canada this season. I like the home team in this spot.
This will be the Islanders' 4th road game in six days, with the last two occurring at high elevation (Utah & Colorado). Tough. Dallas is ranked in the top 10 in higher danger shots, while New York is ranked in the bottom 10 in high danger shots against. The Stars started slow but have a +8 goal differential in their last ten games, while the Islanders are -3 over the same time frame. New York has the 5th most penalty minutes, giving Dallas's 2nd-ranked power play (33.3%) a significant advantage. By contrast, the Stars have committed the 8th fewest penalty minutes. The regulation line is another option at similar odds if your book doesn't have -1 (-105).
The New Jersey Devils are by far the more talented team, with a significant edge in special teams. Washington is coming off a game against the Florida Panthers. NHL teams are just 4-9 after playing the defending champs, with two of those four wins occurring in OT. New Jersey has a 6-1 record when playing with two days of rest, dating back to last year, before the injuries to key players. Logan Thompson has not started more than three straight games, so Charlie Lindgren will get the start in goal for the Caps, which is a significant drop-off. Lindgren is 1-5 with a 4.13 GAA and .852 save percentage on Saturday over the last two seasons. Update. Jack Hughes is OUT. Light play.
This will be the Dallas Stars' first trip to Canada this season. They have won nine games, eight of which were victories by one goal, including a streak of six consecutive one-goal wins. Both teams have a goal differential of -3. However, Dallas has a shot differential of -37, while Ottawa is at +27. Linus Ullmark will be in goal for the Senators, and he's 2-0 with a 1.46 GAA and .952 save percentage against Dallas over the last three seasons. With both teams playing their third game in four days, let's ride with the Senators at home.
This will be the first back-to-back road game for the Flyers since the first two games of the season. They are coming off an emotional win against Montreal, where they jumped out to a 3-0 lead only to allow four straight goals and eventually won in a shootout on a season-high 40 shots on goal. Philadelphia is the third luckiest team (103.3) while the Predators are ranked 23rd (97.9). NHL luck rankings are calculated by combining shooting percentage and save percentage. Any number over 100 is considered “lucky” and vice versa. Nashville lost to the Flyers 4-1 last week despite outshooting them 33-18. Philadelphia scored one power-play goal and one empty-net goal. I like the home team.
The Boston Bruins have won three straight despite being outshot in all three games, 103-66—red flag. The Flyers are ranked 6th in shots per game (30.3), while Boston is ranked 25th (26.4). New York has a +19 shot differential, while Boston is -51. This is a revenge game for the home team. On October 28th, Boston defeated the Islanders 5-2 (including one empty net goal), despite getting outshot 35-22. They scored two power-play goals after New York had taken a 2-0 lead. The Islanders were -150 at Boston and now they are -148 at home. I like the home team in this spot.
Edmonton has had an uneven start (4-4-2), which is better than last year. They have played just three home games (2-0-1) and will face a Utah team playing its third road game in four days. Utah has played the fourth-easiest slate, contributing to its 8-2 record and +13 goal differential. They are shooting 12.3% in ten games, which is not sustainable. Edmonton's is at 10% and positive regression is expected. The Oilers are ranked 8th in Face-off win percentage, while the Mammoth are ranked 29th. Edmonton is ranked first in shots against per game, and its team speed will be fully displayed in this matchup.
The Colorado Avalanche return home after a tough stretch, losing four consecutive games by just one goal, with three of those decided in overtime or a shootout. This game serves as a revenge matchup for Colorado following their 4-3 overtime loss on Sunday, where both teams had an equal number of shots at 24. The New Jersey Devils are traveling the longest distance of their season and currently rank as the third luckiest team in the league, with a shooting percentage of 13.5% and a .905 save percentage. Colorado has a shot differential of +86, while the Devils have a differential of +28. I like the home team in this spot.
The Flyers have a 3-2-1 record but are shooting an unsustainable 13.8%, making them the 4th luckiest team. In contrast, the Senators are the unluckiest at 2-4-1, struggling with a .823 save percentage and 10.1% shooting. Ottawa ranks 8th in shots per game (29.6) and has a +3.0 shot differential, while Philadelphia is last (21.7) and at -3.8. After two consecutive home losses, the Senators are expected to start Leevi Merilainen, who has a strong previous record (8-3, 1.99 GAA, .925 save percentage in 2024) despite a rough last outing where he allowed seven goals. Merilainen and his team should bounce back against an opponent that doesn't generate many shots and is playing its first road game in almost two weeks.