The Carolina Hurricanes lead the league in shot differential (+541) and boast the NHL’s best shots against metric. They also have a +57 high-danger differential. The Columbus Blue Jackets rank 25th in shots against, with a +31 shot differential and a +23 high-danger mark. Both teams will play with two days' rest. Carolina is 6-3 in such situations, averaging 3.7 goals for and 2.8 goals against. Columbus is 4-7, averaging 2.2 goals for and 3.5 goals against. The Blue Jackets have gone to overtime in six of their last ten games, winning just two. The Hurricanes are 17–6–1 in games where they score at least one power-play goal, and 3–0 when coming off two or more games without a power-play tally.
Dallas is 2-0 against Edmonton this season, including an 8-3 rout in Edmonton, during which they scored three power-play goals. The Stars avenged last season’s playoff elimination by Edmonton. Now, it’s the Oilers’ turn to respond. Dallas will be without Roope Hintz (44 points in 53 games) and Mikko Rantanen (69 points in 54 games), both of whom were key contributors in the previous wins. Surprisingly, Dallas ranks 28th in shots on goal and has a -34 shot differential. The Oilers are 6th in shots on goal with a +164 shot differential, and rank 4th in high-danger scoring chances. Edmonton is in a tight playoff race, currently sitting sixth (tied) in the Western Conference and needing key victories to solidify its postseason position.
The Ottawa Senators continue their quest for a playoff spot, aiming to win back-to-back games for the first time since early February. Ottawa is ranked 2nd in shots against and owns a +254 shot differential, including a +32 advantage in high-danger chances. In contrast, Seattle is ranked 22nd in shots against with a -253 shot differential and a -36 mark in high-danger chances. Puck possession also favors the Senators, who rank 3rd, while Seattle sits at 25th. Teams with a +200 or better shot differential are 6-0 this season against opponents with a -200 or worse shot differential. Looking at the past decade, teams with a +30 or higher high-danger differential against teams with a -30 or worse have won 67% of those matchups.
Colorado lost to the Ducks 2-1 in an overtime shootout despite outshooting Anaheim 41-16 on Jan. 21 in Denver. The Avs are one of two teams (Patterson’s Hurricanes) with an over +400 shot differential with roughly 6 weeks remaining in the regular season. Colorado has an elite high-danger differential (+40) and ranks 11th in Face-off win percentage, their best mark in many years. There is some concern about Colorado having played last night, even though the trip from Staples (Crypto) to Honda Center is only 30.5 miles. The Avalanche are 4-5 this season when playing without rest. Trust one of the most profitable systems I use in hockey over a large sample size. Look for Colorado to improve to 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
The Ottawa Senators currently lead the league in fewest shots allowed and have an impressive +236 shot differential, including a +32 margin in High-Danger scoring chances. The Maple Leafs rank last in shots allowed and have a -256 shot differential, along with a -15 High-Danger differential. When these teams met last December, the Maple Leafs emerged victorious with a 7-5 win, fueled by two Power-Play goals and an empty-netter. Last year, the Maple Leafs eliminated Ottawa from the playoffs, and now the Senators are even more motivated to seek revenge after another recent defeat. This will be Toronto’s third game in four days after playing Florida on Thursday. Teams are 21-31 in games after playing the defending champs without extended rest.
Nathan MacKinnon averages 22:11 of ice time per game, but now faces a challenging 72-hour turnaround following the Olympic Gold Medal game. Coach Jared Bednar is considering resting his Olympians, including Cale Makar (25:08), for this matchup. With Colorado scheduled to play five games in seven nights, strategic rest becomes critical. There are also reports that MacKinnon played through an injury sustained after a hit in a game against France at the Olympics. The Mammoth ranks sixth in shots allowed per game and boasts a +101 shot differential, along with a +26 edge in high-danger chances. After a lengthy break, they resumed practice on February 17, essentially creating a mini "training camp" to prepare specifically for this matchup.
This is a spot that I look for quite often. Carolina defeated the Senators less than 10 days ago, 4-1, despite getting outshot 37-19 in Ottawa. The Senators are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS when playing with zero days' rest this season. One of the losses was when they played in Utah and Colorado back-to-back. Ottawa is one of the few teams that can match Carolina’s defensive tenacity. The Hurricanes are coming off two OT games, and they are just 21-34 ATS this season. Carolina is undoubtedly a strong team, but their impressive record has been aided by facing the league's 11th easiest schedule.
The Penguins have won six in a row, but let's look at the teams they faced. The Rangers, Blackhawks, Canucks, Oilers, Flames, and Seattle. All but one team (Edm) averages 2.9 goals per game or fewer. The Penguins have played the league’s easiest schedule, while the Senators are ranked 14th. Ottawa is ranked third in shots against with a +195 shot differential (4th), whereas the Penguins are ranked 13th with a +97 shot differential, aided by that soft schedule. The Sens have allowed the fewest high-danger shots on goal and own a +19 HDSD, while Pittsburgh is ranked 19th and sports a +2 differential. Ottawa defeated the Penguins 4-0 earlier this season, and that was when the Penguins had Kris Letang patrolling the blue line.
This is Washington's 6th road game in 11 days across four different time zones. Washington is traveling West-to-East (Seattle to Detroit), a route historically associated with sluggish performance. The game in Seattle on the 27th implies a red-eye flight or a travel day on the 28th, which would eliminate practice time. Detroit has enjoyed the comforts of home and is coming into this matchup well-rested. Since December, the Red Wings have posted an impressive 6-1 record after a loss. Washington gives up High-Danger Chances at a rate that ranks in the bottom third of the league and will be without two key defenders. Detroit’s offense ranks 5th in creating them. The Red Wings own the better special teams and Face-off win percentage.
Buffalo will play its third game in four days, and a back-to-back is one of the most difficult situational challenges in the NHL. The absence of Josh Norris further weakens Buffalo’s center depth. This is a prime "scheduled win" opportunity for Nashville: they are rested, playing at home, and facing a depleted Buffalo squad that will be fatigued after chasing the puck against Carolina on Monday. Nashville ranks 6th in face-off win percentage, while Buffalo sits at 32nd. The Predators also welcome back Jonathan Marchessault, who has tallied 554 points in 745 career games. Nashville returns home after conceding 7 goals in Vegas. The Predators have defeated the Avalanche twice this season—a feat that few teams have managed even once against Colorado.
The Islanders are coming off a hard-fought 1-0 victory against the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday, despite being outshot 35-18. New York boasts an elite goalie tandem, currently ranked third in save percentage, but the Flames’ duo of Cooley and Wolf—eighth in save percentage—should not be overlooked. Offensively, the Islanders rank 29th in scoring chances and ninth in PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage), while the Flames sit 21st in scoring chances and 31st in PDO. In hockey, teams with the lowest PDOs often see improvement as the season progresses. Defensively, the Islanders rank last in high-danger shots against (197) and have a -51 differential. The Flames, at -5, remain a tough opponent at home. I think the Flames should be at least -120.
The Maple Leafs face their third game in four days, with consecutive matchups at high altitude after just playing in Colorado on Monday night. Utah ranks 7th in shots against with a +118 shot differential, while Toronto sits at 29th with a -186 differential. The Mammoth allowed a season-high 36 shots in a 3-2 OT setback on Sunday. This is a great spot for the home team.
Montreal embarrassed the Red Wings with a 5-1 season-opening win in Detroit on Oct 9, despite being outshot 31-17. The Canadiens defeated the Panthers 6-2 on Thursday despite getting outshot 27-19. They have a rivalry game against Vancouver on deck. Both teams have similar shots against metrics. However, Detroit is ranked 12th in shots on goal, with a +30 shot differential, while Montreal is ranked 28th with a -51 shot differential. Detroit holds the advantage on both the Power Play (24.8%) and the Penalty Kill (80.2%). The Red Wings have a +18 high-danger shot differential (all situations) while Montreal is -16. I like the road dog in this spot.
The Islanders are 2-0 against the Devils this season, winning both games by a single goal despite being outshot 67-49. New York will be without Bo Horvat, who has 33 points (21 goals) in 36 games—27.5% of the team's scoring. His absence and 57.6% face-off win rate (8th in the NHL) are major losses. New York has been held to 2 or fewer goals in regulation when Bo Horvat has not played (six games). Top defenseman Matthew Schaefer (28 points, 23:50 ice time) is also out. The Islanders rank 32nd in high-danger shots against with Schaefer on the ice. Ilya Sorokin returns after missing seven games, but with a depleted roster in front of him, the Devils may have more scoring chances than usual.
The New York Rangers return home after a 12-day, six-game road trip, capped by a 5-1 win over the Panthers (two power-play goals) despite being outshot 37-20. Mammoth ranks fifth in shots against and owns a +141 shot differential, including +21 in high-danger chances. Meanwhile, New York is 26th in shots against and holds a -121 shot differential, with -4 in high-danger chances. Utah already beat the Rangers this season with a sizable shot advantage. I like the road team in this spot.