After another successful winning regular season, I have struggled in the Postseason, so keep that in mind. I like the Edmonton Oilers to bounce back after allowing six goals and committing stupid penalties while playing one of their worst games in recent memory. The entire team will play with a lot more urgency. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were both held without a point. If history suggests, the Oilers will likely play much better, as they are 7-2 in all Game 4s since 2022, while Florida is just 3-5 despite reaching the Finals in three straight seasons. The Panthers have won two games in overtime. Edmonton has outshot the Panthers in every game. Play Edmonton at plus money.

The Dallas Stars are returning home to save their season. They have played exceptionally well at the American Airlines Center this year. Zach Hyman is OUT for Edmonton. He has recorded five goals and 11 points in 15 playoff games, including two goals and an assist in Game 3 against the Stars. Hyman was also on track to break the NHL record for most hits in a single postseason. While I initially picked Edmonton to win the series, this is a strong opportunity to support the home team.

The Hurricanes have been dominant at home, with a 36-9-1 record this season. The Panthers are coming off a challenging seven-game series and will play their eighth game in 15 days, which includes four games in six days. Historically, the Hurricanes have fared well at Lenovo Center in the postseason, holding a 14-5 record since 2022, although two losses have been to Florida. The Panthers defeated the Hurricanes in four overtimes two seasons ago in Carolina and then went on to win the next three games to complete the sweep. The Hurricanes should be highly motivated to prevent the Panthers from stealing Game 1 on the road again. I respect the Hurricanes' suffocating defense, especially with extra preparation time against the fatigued Panthers.

While the Maple Leafs were blanked in Game four, they have a potent offense led by stars like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. It's unlikely that Toronto's top scorers will remain quiet for long, especially at home, where the coaching staff can better manage matchups. They have won 11 of their last 12 home games. Sergei Bobrovsky was outstanding in Game 4. Still, such elite goaltending performances are difficult to sustain over multiple games. His performance on the road versus at home has been telling all season. Interestingly, Florida went 2-6 against winning teams after two days off. Joseph Woll stopped 35 of 37 shots and posted a .946 save percentage, and I love backing a good team returning home after getting shut out.

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost to Florida in five games in the 2023 playoffs, but both teams have significantly changed their rosters since then. The Panthers haven't played a game outside Florida since April 6th. They are still without one of their best defensemen (Aaron Ekblad). Anthony Stolarz, a former Panther, has played well for Toronto, posting a .915 save percentage in Round 1. He could outplay Sergei Bobrovsky, who recorded a .901 save percentage against Tampa Bay. Bobrovsky wasn't as dominant on the road (13-10, 2.55 GAA) as at home (20-9, 2.36 GAA) this season. The Leafs secured a win against Florida at home in early April, which should give them confidence tonight.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have dominated at Amalie Arena all season (29-8-4 home record), but they have already dropped both Games 1 and 2 at home in this series. Tampa Bay has played well in must-win situations and has enough playoff experience to extend this matchup to a game six. Both teams will be missing key players. Florida defenseman Aaron Ekblad has been suspended for two games for his illegal hit on Brandon Hagel and will not suit up. The Lightning will step up at home and win one for the Gipper.

Edmonton is in a must-win game and should be pumped up to return home. The Kings were dominant at Crypto Arena this season but not so much on the road. Play Edmonton.

The Ottawa Senators return home trailing 0-2 in the series, even though they outshot Toronto in both games, with a combined total of 61 shots to Toronto's 45. The Sens outhit the Maple Leafs in both games, 104-58. Ottawa can defeat Toronto, as evidenced by its 3-0 record in the regular season. The atmosphere will be electric for their first postseason home game since 2017. I have to play the home team in this spot.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have been knocked out of the first round of the playoffs in two consecutive seasons. Last year, the Florida Panthers eliminated Tampa Bay in five games. Tampa Bay lost the first two games by one goal at Florida last season. With Tampa Bay at home, they will be able to match up last, which should propel them to a game-one win.

On April 5th, Vegas defeated the Flames 3-2 in overtime at the Scotiabank Saddledome. Winning consecutive games against the same team at an identical venue within 14 days is challenging. The Golden Knights have defeated Calgary in three straight games; however, the Flames won both previous meetings against Vegas at home, outscoring them 6-2 and outshooting them in both games, 71-57. The potential absence of Jack Eichel and Alex Pietrangelo could significantly impact Vegas, as both are key contributors on offense and defense. Vegas has absorbed 1,802 hits (5th most), while Calgary has received the 6th fewest (1,527). Calgary's urgency, along with Vegas' potential injury concerns and their secured playoff spot, gives the Flames an advantage.

Seth Jarvis has been performing well in his last ten games, averaging 4.1 shots on goal with an 80% success rate on the over. At home this season, he has averaged 3.16 shots on goal, exceeding this mark 68.42% of the time. This represents a significant improvement compared to his overall season average of 2.82 shots per game. The Maple Leafs are missing key defensemen Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jake McCabe, which could open up more shooting lanes for Jarvis. Additionally, Toronto has allowed an average of 29.1 shots on goal per game over their last 10 contests. Carolina aims to set a franchise record for home victories, keeping them motivated.

The Minnesota Wild got Kirill Kaprizov back, and he tallied two goals in an 8-7 up-and-down overtime win against the Sharks on Wednesday. That was the Wild's second consecutive overtime victory following their win against the Stars on Sunday. Minnesota has a shot differential of -181 and a goal differential of -11, the worst among potential playoff teams. Calgary has a shot differential of +44 and outshot Minnesota (60-48) while winning both matchups this season. The Wild rank 28th in shots allowed, the worst among teams with winning records. The Flames are ranked fifth in Expected Save Percentage on unblocked shots, while Minnesota is ranked 16th. I like the home team at plus money.

The Jets played three consecutive road games, followed by one home game, and are now hitting the road again. It's always a tough travel spot, heightened by the Jets' 2-9 record in the last 11 meetings in Dallas. The Stars have lost two out of three meetings against the Jets this season despite outshooting them in every game, 89-74. The Jets have a -0.4 shot differential in road games, while Dallas has a +1.9 differential in home games. The Stars are on a season-high three-game losing streak and will be eager to perform well against the Jets, who are four points ahead of them in the Central Division standings.

This will be the Golden Knights' third road game in four days and at high altitude. Teams have split two meetings this season, with Colorado dominating in shots on goal, 66-40. Tomas Hertl (59 points in 70 games) has just been ruled OUT for Vegas, while Colorado's Martin Necas (26 points in 27 games with the Avs) has a chance to play. Colorado sits four points behind Vegas for the third seed out West. The Avalanche have a record of 11-4 after two days of rest and aim to end their two-game home losing streak.

Alex DeBrincat has surpassed 2.5 shots in 60% of his last 25 games, averaging 3.3 per game. He is 2-0 in games after failing to exceed 2.5 shots in two consecutive matches, and he has a perfect 4-0 record in his last four attempts after not reaching 2.5 shots at home. DeBrincat is Detroit's leading scorer, with 34 goals this season, playing a crucial role in the Red Wings' offense. The Panthers rank third in penalty minutes, and DeBrincat excels against short-handed teams. Florida played on Saturday, which might lead to a sluggish performance on the blue line. Alex over 2.5 on my model should be -139.