This is a spot that I look for quite often. Carolina defeated the Senators less than 10 days ago, 4-1, despite getting outshot 37-19 in Ottawa. The Senators are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS when playing with zero days' rest this season. One of the losses was when they played in Utah and Colorado back-to-back. Ottawa is one of the few teams that can match Carolina’s defensive tenacity. The Hurricanes are coming off two OT games, and they are just 21-34 ATS this season. Carolina is undoubtedly a strong team, but their impressive record has been aided by facing the league's 11th easiest schedule.
The Penguins have won six in a row, but let's look at the teams they faced. The Rangers, Blackhawks, Canucks, Oilers, Flames, and Seattle. All but one team (Edm) averages 2.9 goals per game or fewer. The Penguins have played the league’s easiest schedule, while the Senators are ranked 14th. Ottawa is ranked third in shots against with a +195 shot differential (4th), whereas the Penguins are ranked 13th with a +97 shot differential, aided by that soft schedule. The Sens have allowed the fewest high-danger shots on goal and own a +19 HDSD, while Pittsburgh is ranked 19th and sports a +2 differential. Ottawa defeated the Penguins 4-0 earlier this season, and that was when the Penguins had Kris Letang patrolling the blue line.
This is Washington's 6th road game in 11 days across four different time zones. Washington is traveling West-to-East (Seattle to Detroit), a route historically associated with sluggish performance. The game in Seattle on the 27th implies a red-eye flight or a travel day on the 28th, which would eliminate practice time. Detroit has enjoyed the comforts of home and is coming into this matchup well-rested. Since December, the Red Wings have posted an impressive 6-1 record after a loss. Washington gives up High-Danger Chances at a rate that ranks in the bottom third of the league and will be without two key defenders. Detroit’s offense ranks 5th in creating them. The Red Wings own the better special teams and Face-off win percentage.
Buffalo will play its third game in four days, and a back-to-back is one of the most difficult situational challenges in the NHL. The absence of Josh Norris further weakens Buffalo’s center depth. This is a prime "scheduled win" opportunity for Nashville: they are rested, playing at home, and facing a depleted Buffalo squad that will be fatigued after chasing the puck against Carolina on Monday. Nashville ranks 6th in face-off win percentage, while Buffalo sits at 32nd. The Predators also welcome back Jonathan Marchessault, who has tallied 554 points in 745 career games. Nashville returns home after conceding 7 goals in Vegas. The Predators have defeated the Avalanche twice this season—a feat that few teams have managed even once against Colorado.
The Islanders are coming off a hard-fought 1-0 victory against the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday, despite being outshot 35-18. New York boasts an elite goalie tandem, currently ranked third in save percentage, but the Flames’ duo of Cooley and Wolf—eighth in save percentage—should not be overlooked. Offensively, the Islanders rank 29th in scoring chances and ninth in PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage), while the Flames sit 21st in scoring chances and 31st in PDO. In hockey, teams with the lowest PDOs often see improvement as the season progresses. Defensively, the Islanders rank last in high-danger shots against (197) and have a -51 differential. The Flames, at -5, remain a tough opponent at home. I think the Flames should be at least -120.
The Maple Leafs face their third game in four days, with consecutive matchups at high altitude after just playing in Colorado on Monday night. Utah ranks 7th in shots against with a +118 shot differential, while Toronto sits at 29th with a -186 differential. The Mammoth allowed a season-high 36 shots in a 3-2 OT setback on Sunday. This is a great spot for the home team.
Montreal embarrassed the Red Wings with a 5-1 season-opening win in Detroit on Oct 9, despite being outshot 31-17. The Canadiens defeated the Panthers 6-2 on Thursday despite getting outshot 27-19. They have a rivalry game against Vancouver on deck. Both teams have similar shots against metrics. However, Detroit is ranked 12th in shots on goal, with a +30 shot differential, while Montreal is ranked 28th with a -51 shot differential. Detroit holds the advantage on both the Power Play (24.8%) and the Penalty Kill (80.2%). The Red Wings have a +18 high-danger shot differential (all situations) while Montreal is -16. I like the road dog in this spot.
The Islanders are 2-0 against the Devils this season, winning both games by a single goal despite being outshot 67-49. New York will be without Bo Horvat, who has 33 points (21 goals) in 36 games—27.5% of the team's scoring. His absence and 57.6% face-off win rate (8th in the NHL) are major losses. New York has been held to 2 or fewer goals in regulation when Bo Horvat has not played (six games). Top defenseman Matthew Schaefer (28 points, 23:50 ice time) is also out. The Islanders rank 32nd in high-danger shots against with Schaefer on the ice. Ilya Sorokin returns after missing seven games, but with a depleted roster in front of him, the Devils may have more scoring chances than usual.
The New York Rangers return home after a 12-day, six-game road trip, capped by a 5-1 win over the Panthers (two power-play goals) despite being outshot 37-20. Mammoth ranks fifth in shots against and owns a +141 shot differential, including +21 in high-danger chances. Meanwhile, New York is 26th in shots against and holds a -121 shot differential, with -4 in high-danger chances. Utah already beat the Rangers this season with a sizable shot advantage. I like the road team in this spot.
The Buffalo Sabres have seemingly dominated the Ottawa Senators in their last five matchups, going 5-0 despite being outshot in every game (177-128 overall, including 37-27 in their 8-4 victory in October). Buffalo capitalized on special teams, scoring three power-play goals, one shorthanded goal, and one empty-netter. The Senators are ranked second in shots against—including first in limiting high-danger chances—and own a +89 shot differential. Buffalo ranks just 21st and has a -50 differential. Ottawa also ranks second in face-off win percentage, while Buffalo ranks 32nd. My power ratings have Ottawa nine spots higher. I like the home team in this spot.
This is not a great travel spot for Vegas after playing five consecutive road games, then one home game, and now traveling to Canada. The Golden Knights are 2-0 against Calgary this season; however, both games were in mid-October. The Flames are 5-2 in their last seven games, outshooting five of seven teams. Calgary has compiled a 7-2-1 record in its last ten home games. They have solid metrics, with a +69 shot differential, a season high. Also, the Flames operate as a defensive-focused team with the best expected goals-against rate in the NHL. The Golden Knights will be without two studs (Jack Eichel & Shea Theodore) and might be looking ahead to Sunday’s revenge game at Edmonton.
The San Jose Sharks return home from a 5-game, eleven-day road trip where they were outshot in four games. San Jose is ranked 32nd in shots allowed and has the worst shot differential in hockey at -240. The Flames are ranked 18th in shots against with a +43 shot differential. In high-danger chances, Calgary is +14 while San Jose sits at zero. Calgary has beaten the Sharks seven straight times, including a 36-17 shot advantage back in October. San Jose is dealing with injuries to Will Smith (29 points in 33 games) and Philip Kurashev after both left the game following their biggest comeback win in franchise history against the Penguins. I like the road team in this spot.
The Edmonton Oilers are the more talented team and should elevate their play in this rivalry matchup. Edmonton is ranked 7th in shots against and has a +60 shot differential. Toronto is ranked 30th in shots allowed and owns a -127 shot differential. Both teams have comparable PK units, but the Oilers are ranked 2nd in PP% while the Maple Leafs are 31st. Tristan Jarry is expected to start in goal after the big trade on Friday. He’s a major upgrade over Stuart Skinner, sporting a 2.66 GAA and .909 save percentage. The last time these teams played, Toronto won 4-3 in Edmonton despite getting outshot 48-28. Mitch Marner played a big role, and he’s now in Vegas. These Canadian teams take revenge games seriously.
This will be the Stars' 6th game in 9 days. Research shows Dallas is one of the NHL's most fatigue-sensitive teams. Dallas loses -9.26 fantasy points per game in back-to-back/fatigued situations. This is the second-worst fatigue impact in the entire NHL. Dallas defeated the Wild 5-2 in October despite getting outshot 41-25. The Stars scored two power-play goals and two empty-net goals. With a revenge game against Florida on deck, Dallas may not be fully focused here. Additionally, the Stars lead the NHL in hits taken (719), while Minnesota ranks 25th-fewest (534), which adds to the previous data point of playing six games in 9 days.
Starting with my power rankings: Dallas sits 7th, while the Jets check in at 21st. The Stars rank 15th in shots allowed per game, whereas Winnipeg is 24th. Both teams have negative shot differentials, but Dallas's -53 edges out Winnipeg's -89. Most tellingly, the Jets have stumbled to a 3-7 record since losing star goalie Connor Hellebuyck to injury, including a 0-6 mark against winning teams. The Jets have called up rookie Domenic DiVincentiis, and he could get the start between the pipes. That’s a little bit of an unknown. Light play on the road team.