Buffalo dominated Boston with a +39 shot and +8 goal margin, while Montreal struggled against the Lightning, posting a -40 shot differential. The Canadiens were outshot 29-9 in Game 7 yet pulled off a win. Buffalo finished the regular season mid-pack in high-danger shots for and against, while Montreal was near the bottom with a -39 high-danger differential. Montreal relies on its power play, but Buffalo’s penalty kill is elite (4th in the league). Montreal is fatigued after its taxing Game 7 and tough travel back home. Buffalo's speed (3rd in NHL for bursts over 20 MPH), depth, fresher legs, and Alex Lyon's strong goaltending (1.14 GAA) provide an advantage. In contrast, Montreal’s Jakub Dobes ranks 30th in GAA, exposing their ongoing goalie issues.
Jack Eichel enters the second round as the driving force behind the Vegas offense. He tallied 9 points (1G, 8A) in the 6-game series against Utah. More importantly, his ice time ranks among the highest for forwards in the league, averaging 24:22 per game. Serving as the primary distributor on the top line and the focal point of the top power-play unit, Eichel is involved in nearly every high-danger scoring chance Vegas generates. Anaheim’s defense is a major liability, especially in Game 1 when both teams are still feeling each other out. Adjustments are typically made after the opener.
The Stars are looking to rebound after an overtime loss that featured several easily correctable mistakes. Throughout the season, they have consistently bounced back after defeats (22-7-3) and excelled with two days of rest (11-3-1). Wyatt Johnston has stepped up in Roope Hintz's absence, recording 21 points (12 goals, 9 assists) in the final 20 regular-season games and extending his playoff point streak to four games. These teams are evenly matched, evidenced by the home squad's impressive 8-2 record over the past 10 meetings.
Anaheim ranked 29th in defense & 28th in high-danger chances against. Edmonton has the NHL's top power play, is 8th in high-danger chances, and 6th in goals scored. Since the Ducks commit a lot of penalties, Edmonton should get frequent power plays against Anaheim's 6th-worst PK unit. Edmonton also possesses a significant face-off advantage, scoring 4, 5, and 7 goals in their three meetings. On the road, Anaheim finished 19-20-2 with a -21 goal differential; 15 of those 20 regulation road losses were by 2 or more goals. The Oilers have averaged 3.9 goals per game at home over the past six seasons. The Ducks haven’t reached the postseason in eight years, and opening the playoffs in Edmonton seems like a tough spot.
Carolina (108 points) has comfortably clinched the Metropolitan Division and cannot catch Colorado for the Presidents' Trophy. Their playoff seeding is set in stone, meaning they are highly likely to rest key players and play a low-intensity game. Meanwhile, the Utah Mammoth (90 points) is in a fierce battle to hold onto its Wild Card spot and potentially climb higher in the Western Conference standings. Utah enters the Delta Center riding a red-hot 5-game winning streak. The altitude and home crowd heavily favor a highly motivated Mammoth squad against a Hurricanes team looking forward to the postseason.
Seattle returns home after a grueling 12-day, six-game road trip that concluded in Edmonton on March 31. Teams crossing multiple time zones in a single week typically win 6.2% fewer games. Meanwhile, Utah has been well-rested, last playing on March 28, when they beat the Kings. Historically, NHL road teams with a rest advantage of three days or more over their hosts have been profitable, showing a +9.7% ROI. The Mammoth are ranked 6th in shots against with a +110 shot differential and a +17 High-Danger mark. In contrast, the Kraken rank 20th in shots allowed, with a -279 shot differential and a -27 High-Danger mark. Utah is not only the superior possession team but also has a massive rest advantage.
The New Jersey Devils still have an outside shot at making the playoffs. Until they are officially eliminated, New Jersey remains a team I want to back. The Devils are 2-0 against the Rangers this season, outscoring them 12-6 and outshooting them 74-38 across both games. New Jersey ranks 14th in shots against and has a +178 shot differential, while the Rangers are ranked 26th with a -294 shot differential. New Jersey ranks 16th in scoring chances, compared to the Rangers at 26th. MSG has been a nightmare for New York, as the team has posted a dismal 11-25 home record. New York is coming off a win against the Panthers, but teams are just 26-40 after facing the defending back-to-back champions.
The LA Kings are entering a grueling stretch, playing their third game in four days and fourth in six. After an overtime battle in Utah, they now head to Canada to face a Calgary team that has consistently proven difficult to beat. The Flames have claimed victory in seven of the last ten meetings, including a 2-0 loss on the road last month. Over the past three years, Calgary has thrived in the final month of the season against Pacific Division opponents, posting an 11–3–4 record. The Flames embrace the “spoiler” role and have an edge in goal—ranking 14th in Goals Saved Above Expected (-0.11), while the Kings sit 24th (-7.89). Los Angeles leads the NHL with 17 overtime losses. I like the home team.
The Carolina Hurricanes lead the league in shot differential (+541) and boast the NHL’s best shots against metric. They also have a +57 high-danger differential. The Columbus Blue Jackets rank 25th in shots against, with a +31 shot differential and a +23 high-danger mark. Both teams will play with two days' rest. Carolina is 6-3 in such situations, averaging 3.7 goals for and 2.8 goals against. Columbus is 4-7, averaging 2.2 goals for and 3.5 goals against. The Blue Jackets have gone to overtime in six of their last ten games, winning just two. The Hurricanes are 17–6–1 in games where they score at least one power-play goal, and 3–0 when coming off two or more games without a power-play tally.
Dallas is 2-0 against Edmonton this season, including an 8-3 rout in Edmonton, during which they scored three power-play goals. The Stars avenged last season’s playoff elimination by Edmonton. Now, it’s the Oilers’ turn to respond. Dallas will be without Roope Hintz (44 points in 53 games) and Mikko Rantanen (69 points in 54 games), both of whom were key contributors in the previous wins. Surprisingly, Dallas ranks 28th in shots on goal and has a -34 shot differential. The Oilers are 6th in shots on goal with a +164 shot differential, and rank 4th in high-danger scoring chances. Edmonton is in a tight playoff race, currently sitting sixth (tied) in the Western Conference and needing key victories to solidify its postseason position.
The Ottawa Senators continue their quest for a playoff spot, aiming to win back-to-back games for the first time since early February. Ottawa is ranked 2nd in shots against and owns a +254 shot differential, including a +32 advantage in high-danger chances. In contrast, Seattle is ranked 22nd in shots against with a -253 shot differential and a -36 mark in high-danger chances. Puck possession also favors the Senators, who rank 3rd, while Seattle sits at 25th. Teams with a +200 or better shot differential are 6-0 this season against opponents with a -200 or worse shot differential. Looking at the past decade, teams with a +30 or higher high-danger differential against teams with a -30 or worse have won 67% of those matchups.
Colorado lost to the Ducks 2-1 in an overtime shootout despite outshooting Anaheim 41-16 on Jan. 21 in Denver. The Avs are one of two teams (Patterson’s Hurricanes) with an over +400 shot differential with roughly 6 weeks remaining in the regular season. Colorado has an elite high-danger differential (+40) and ranks 11th in Face-off win percentage, their best mark in many years. There is some concern about Colorado having played last night, even though the trip from Staples (Crypto) to Honda Center is only 30.5 miles. The Avalanche are 4-5 this season when playing without rest. Trust one of the most profitable systems I use in hockey over a large sample size. Look for Colorado to improve to 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
The Ottawa Senators currently lead the league in fewest shots allowed and have an impressive +236 shot differential, including a +32 margin in High-Danger scoring chances. The Maple Leafs rank last in shots allowed and have a -256 shot differential, along with a -15 High-Danger differential. When these teams met last December, the Maple Leafs emerged victorious with a 7-5 win, fueled by two Power-Play goals and an empty-netter. Last year, the Maple Leafs eliminated Ottawa from the playoffs, and now the Senators are even more motivated to seek revenge after another recent defeat. This will be Toronto’s third game in four days after playing Florida on Thursday. Teams are 21-31 in games after playing the defending champs without extended rest.
Nathan MacKinnon averages 22:11 of ice time per game, but now faces a challenging 72-hour turnaround following the Olympic Gold Medal game. Coach Jared Bednar is considering resting his Olympians, including Cale Makar (25:08), for this matchup. With Colorado scheduled to play five games in seven nights, strategic rest becomes critical. There are also reports that MacKinnon played through an injury sustained after a hit in a game against France at the Olympics. The Mammoth ranks sixth in shots allowed per game and boasts a +101 shot differential, along with a +26 edge in high-danger chances. After a lengthy break, they resumed practice on February 17, essentially creating a mini "training camp" to prepare specifically for this matchup.
This is a spot that I look for quite often. Carolina defeated the Senators less than 10 days ago, 4-1, despite getting outshot 37-19 in Ottawa. The Senators are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS when playing with zero days' rest this season. One of the losses was when they played in Utah and Colorado back-to-back. Ottawa is one of the few teams that can match Carolina’s defensive tenacity. The Hurricanes are coming off two OT games, and they are just 21-34 ATS this season. Carolina is undoubtedly a strong team, but their impressive record has been aided by facing the league's 11th easiest schedule.