The Seahawks are playing for the No. 1 seed and deserve to be favored, but it’s the 49ers that truly have everything to gain as a win sets them up for homefield advantage in the playoffs *and* Super Bowl. Being down Ricky Pearsall and Trent Williams – especially against the Seahawks’ vaunted defense -- is not great, but George Kittle’s return helps with the underneath routes for Brock Purdy. San Francisco’s awful defense is the greatest concern -- by far -- but Seattle just let up 37 to the Rams, so the unit can absolutely be beaten. On top of that, can we really trust Sam Darnold as a road favorite in a massive game? Buy up to +3 (-120) if you can.

The 49ers are usually a great matchup for opposing safeties' tackle production. Seattle's Julian Love has 14 stops the past two games, and he recorded 10 against San Francisco in Week 1. While you can also make a great case for Nick Emmanwori, I bet Love to get at least six stops Saturday night.

Christian McCaffrey has 6+ receptions in 10/16 games this season, and 8+ targets in 8 games. He is 4 catches away from being the just the third 49er with 100+ in a season. He is also still vying for the NFC offensive player of the year award, and could potentially steal it from Jaxon Smith-Njigba with a huge game that leads to a Niners win. When these teams met in Week 1, McCaffrey had 9 receptions on 10 targets. Brock Purdy cannot afford to throw interceptions in this game, and should be looking for CMC often.

Sam Darnold is under this completions mark in 10/16 games this season. The 49ers defense might be tough to trust right now, but their secondary is healthier than it has been most of the season. Although San Fran has struggled to get pressure on opposing QBs, Darnold could be under some duress without his LT Charles Cross, and with backup LT Josh Jones banged up as well. The 49ers should sit back in zone coverage, try to take away Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and force Seattle to beat them on the ground. Darnold has thrown 4 interceptions over the last 4 games, and should look to play more responsibly in this huge game for the NFC’s #1 seed.

How has Brock Purdy been impacting the 49ers? Consider the corresponding six-game SF win streak since Purdy returned to active duty on Nov. 16 at Arizona, as Purdy has played like an all-pro since, and has really soared the past three weeks, with 11 TD passes. He's also expected to have favorite target George Kittle back in the lineup on Saturday, and engineered the late TD drive to beat Seattle 17-13 on opening day. As for the Seahawks, yes they have excelled on the road this season, only losing SU and vs. the spread once each, but this week is when QB Sam Darnold began to unravel last year with the Vikings, and he has been interception-prone (14 this season). Play 49ers

Caesar’s. Jauan Jennings has only stayed under in 6 of 14 games, but I’m treating this matchup as an outlier. The Seahawks are a brutal matchup for outside receivers (Jennings is aligned wide 72% of snaps). Seattle has allowed the fewest yards, yards per target, yards per reception and yards per target, on the fewest receptions to outside receivers. And specifically on throws more than 15 air yards, Seattle has only allowed 21 completions out wide, at a 34% completion rate (third lowest - all data per Fantasy Points). If Jennings does slide into the slot, he only has two catches clearing this line in that alignment this season. This game sets up much better for George Kittle and Christian McCaffery through the air.

Just like I bet and wrote up Sam Darnold's 2+ Passing Touchdowns (and sprinkled on 3+ Passing Touchdowns), I also like Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this matchup. Smith-Njigba also has a very nice matchup against the 49ers' injured defense. He also leads all receivers in target share (36.2%) and has 15 redzone targets this season. Whether it's a redzone target or a deep pass (47% air yards share), I like him to find the endzone on Saturday night to cash this bet.

Sam Darnold and the Seahawks are playing for the NFC West and the #1 seed on Saturday night against the 49ers. Darnold has a great matchup against the 49ers' banged-up defense, which gives up the 5th most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks (29) this season. Darnold also has a player incentive that if he throws for three touchdowns on Saturday, he'll get a $500,000 bonus. In a must-win game, the Seahawks aren't going to force this bonus for Darnold. But I think this bonus could be hit naturally, which, of course, means over 1.5 passing TDs would hit. I'll also bet the alt of 3+ Passing Touchdowns for Darnold.

Defensively, the Seahawks have the better of the two units, at all three levels. On the offensive side of the ball it'll be up to QB Sam Darnold to play an efficient game, which is something he's totally capable of doing. There's a lot of explosiveness on that side of the ball for the Hawks to exploit the matchup advantages they have in the secondary.

Sam Darnold crumbled in a similar situation last season, but this time he’s facing a defense that rarely pressures the quarterback. The 49ers have won six straight, their offense looking unstoppable against bad defenses. But they have not lit up good defenses and Seattle’s is elite. Trent Williams, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey all are dealing with injuries, which could diminish their effectiveness. Back the Seahawks to grab the NFC’s top seed.

Zach Charbonnet erupted for 110 rushing yards last week at Carolina, while Kenneth Walker was inefficient. Now Charbonnet faces a 49ers defense that, with the exception of Week 16 at Indy, has been getting gashed on the ground. The Bears' running backs averaged 5.4 yards per carry vs. the 49ers, Tony Pollard rushed for 104 yards against them, and so on. I'm expecting a neutral or positive game script for Seattle, and I would play this prop up to 44.5.