Huge line despite two teams headed in opposite directions. In a road game divisional matchup in which the Patriots are entering with multiple players sidelined, it speaks volumes that the line is still nearly two TDs. The Jets barely managed two FG last week against the Saints, and they've lost by 13+ points in five of the last six games, including to the Pats. This is a hold-your-nose-but-play-it-line leaning on New England playing for the No. 1 seed and New York ... playing to play.

I took Kyle Williams to go over his receiving yards mark, and I’m sprinkling the TD as well. Williams is an explosive play threat who has scored on 3 of his 7 catches this season. With the Patriots missing multiple starting WRs, I like attacking Williams props here against an atrocious Jets secondary. The talented rookie could be in for his biggest game of the season.

Bet MGM looks like one of the only books brave enough to list Kyle Williams props. That’s because the promising rookie WR could see a major increase in target share with his teammates Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins ruled out. Williams is a big play threat, and has the potential to cash this with one bomb. He has 7 catches this season… 3 of which have gone for 30+ yard TDs. If he does that again, he’ll tie the Pats team record for most deep ball TDs in a season, set by Randy Moss! Williams has a great opportunity to shine today against a Jets defense that ranks 32nd in defensive pass DVOA. He may soar over this number.

Having exhausted every other alternative save perhaps Joe Namath, Jets HC Aaron Glenn is forced to stick with unsteady Mizzou rookie Brady Cook at QB for another week despite some disastrous results that include 6 ints, 3 fumbles, 17 sacks, and only two TD drives in 11 Qs of football. Meanwhile, the Pats haven't lost all season on the road and still have a chance at the top AFC playoff seed if Denver loses next week to the Chargers. A win on Sunday coupled with a Buffalo loss also gives the AFC East to New England, which should be on its toes after the J-Men pushed Drake Maye & Co. into the 4th Q at Foxborough on a Thursday night last month. Play Patriots

B365 at -125. Isaiah Williams has emerged as the slot receiver for the Jets, who are at the end of the depth chart at wide receiver. He’s recorded 10 total catches over the last two games, emerging as a popular target for rookie Brady Cook. He’ll face the Patriots defense that’s tougher on outside receivers than the slot. But what I like here is that Williams’ average depth of target is 2.8 yards over the last two games, and he’s had five designed targets drawn up for him. I’d bet this up to -145.

New England paid a steep tariff for winning at Baltimore last Sunday. Five starters exited with injuries and will sit. They could be joined by a few more, notably top RB TreVeyon Henderson. For the Jets, rookie QB Brady Cook has made progress in baby steps through his three starts. Maybe he can take a toddler’s stride here. In the Jets' favor, home ‘dogs receiving at least seven points this year are 11-7 ATS. Better yet, they are clicking at 63 percent over the five most recent seasons.

I'm going to double-dip on this team this week, as I see this is a great number to play against a Jets team that has given up 34 to the Dolphins and 29 to a Saints team that threw the ball 50 times and make Taysom Hill its featured runner. Since starting 1-2, the Patriots have averaged more than 29 points per game, and the emphasis should be on getting out to a hot start in this game and putting up points early, so I also like playing a first-half team total.

The Patriots have everything to play for as they chase the 1 seed, and I expect them to come out hot offensively against a Jets defense that has allowed 34 to Miami, 48 to Jacksonville and 29 to New Orleans the last three weeks. By contrast, the Jets couldn't move the ball against the Saints and Brady Cook is already confirmed to start this game. It feels like only Jets special teams wins are going to help them cover here. I'm not worried about this being a divisional game, as road teams laying 12.5 or more are 16-9 ATS in divisional matchups since 1997.