Seeing this line a few months ago would have been wild, but the Patriots have proven doubters wrong at every turn on their significant win streak. The problem is that New England has gone through the weakest schedule in the league, and while it has improved massively, it is not as goo as the record suggests. Buffalo could not stop turning the ball over in the first meeting, yet lost by a field goal. The Bills have taken significant steps the last month, despite their lacking defense. They should be able to run the ball Sunday in the cold, and Allen is going to be a significant test for this secondary.

The Bills head to Foxborough as slight road favorites, which is a spot Josh Allen has thrived in. Allen is 30-14-2 ATS when playing as an underdog or a favorite of less than a FG in his career, and is 18-8-2 ATS on the road in that spot as well. The Patriots have been very impressive, but they have faced an easy schedule and feel due for regression. Since losing DL Milton Williams their run defense has struggled, and their offensive line is still shaky since losing LT Will Campbell. Last time these teams played the Bills had three turnovers, played terribly… and still barely lost the game. Buffalo gets their payback in the rematch.

Another rookie RB I’ve been extremely bullish on is TreVeyon Henderson who has taken over as the lead back on what has been a dynamic Patriots offense. Henderson struggled early in the season from an efficiency standpoint but has been much better in recent weeks and has displayed impressive burst and big play ability. He will now face a soft Bills run defense that profiles as the leagues biggest run funnel. Rhamondre Stevenson is likely to get some work here too but I think there is more than enough meat on the bone for Henderson even in a split backfield.

The Bills lost to the Patriots earlier this season but that game featured a lot of Buffalo turnovers. New England has only beaten one good team this year, really, and that was Buffalo. If we get a clean game from Josh Allen the Bills will be in this one. If we get a superhuman Josh Allen game, which happens a lot in December, I'm pretty confident Buffalo walks out of Foxborough with a victory.

The Patriots enter this matchup riding a 10-game win streak with an 8-2 ATS record, coming off a bye week. In their first meeting, Buffalo fell 23-20 on a last-second field goal despite committing three turnovers, sacking Drake Maye four times, and committing 11 penalties. Buffalo has this game circled. New England handed the Bills their first loss of the season. New England’s schedule has been the NFL’s easiest, facing a laughable list of quarterbacks with a -3.6 strength of schedule rating (Miami’s -1.8 is next-worst). Teams coming off 10-game win streaks followed by a bye week often struggle. Rest equals rust. Josh Allen thrives in revenge scenarios, posting a perfect 4-0 record in regular season rematches, including 2-0 against the Patriots since 2021.

Hunter Henry has been a very reliable target for Drake Maye this season. With that being said, this is a fairly large number for Henry in what I consider a difficult matchup. The Bills defense hasn’t performed well and has some major holes, however they cover the middle of field and opposing Tight Ends very well. Buffalo has surrendered the second fewest yards to the position.