Back to my favorite pastime, fading Tua. Tagovailoa is under this mark in 9/12 games this season, and is averaging just 190 pass yards per game. He has thrown 26 or fewer pass attempts in 5 of his last 6 games. The Dolphins have opted to go run-heavy with De'Von Achane, which I expect plenty more of on the road in New York. This should be an ugly AFC East rivalry in which the best game manager wins.

Well here goes nothing, we're betting the Jets in back-to-back weeks. But again, I'm not sure they should be catching a FG on the spread at home. With Tyrod Taylor at QB, the Jets actually have some balance to their offense and can move the ball downfield. Taylor is 37-21-4 ATS for his career, and has been a great bet as an underdog. The Dolphins beat the hapless Saints last week, but nearly allowed an improbable comeback. Tua Tagovailoa was an ugly 12/23 for 157 yards, 0 TD/1 INT. On the road, Tagovailoa is 15-21 SU in his career. The Jets special teams has been fantastic this season, and could be the difference in a game between two bad teams.

The Miami Dolphins have won three straight games and one can’t argue their ATS success in the division this season. They covered in both matchups against Buffalo, including an outright win. They got their first win of the season against the Jets on Monday Night Football, and had a break away De’Vone Achane touchdown against the Patriots brought back with a foot out of bounds. Even with that, the Jets have been a bit under valued at home recently. They’ve won each of their last two home games, and the prior two home games their opponent scored just thirteen points. Grab the points here with the Jets.

Last week, I wrote up De'Von Achane's longest rush, and he soared past his line. In fact, he's gone past his longest rush line in six of his last seven games. It only went up one yard from last week's line. Achane faces a depleted Jets' defense that gave up 248 rushing yards last week to the Falcons. Achane surpassed this longest rush line when he faced the Jets earlier this season. I like him to soar past this longest rush line again on Sunday.

The Dolphins are a fish out of water in cold weather, having dropped seven in a row SU when the thermometer read 45 or lower at kickoff. Projected high on Sunday: 42 degrees. There are more substantive reasons to side with the Jets. They’ve won three of the last five SU, with setbacks to current top AFC seed New England and perennial bad boy Baltimore. In ATS terms, they are 4-1 in friendly confines this season and 5-1 in the latest half-dozen as underdogs. It would advance the Jets’ cause to pick off their first pass of the season, which would help snap Tua Tagovailoa’s perfect record against them.

The Jets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games, but don't mistake that for a legitimate surge in competitiveness. Their wins have largely been marked by return TDs or very short scoring drives off miscues by the other team. Miami has won three straight by winning the turnover battle in each, and they can play a similar game as Atlanta while not essentially giving the Jets 10 free points (on two drives of 3 yards combined). The line makes sense but I think the Dolphins win by 3-7.