The Broncos have truly struggled to win by margin this season, and the offense is not going to be good enough to take them far in the playoffs. However, the Raiders appear to have checked out this year, and they are going to get frustrated quick against the Denver defense. While this game was tight a few weeks ago – and Denver hasn’t won by margin since Oct. 26 – Las Vegas has lost its last three by an average of 16 points. None of those teams were as tough defensively as the Broncos, which still need to win games to lock up the AFC West. These teams have a point differential of 195 this season, 16+ points per game.

The Raiders O-line has been getting torched. Allen is tied for the 3rd most QB pressures in the NFL. Bet on Allen, Bonnito, and Jonathan Cooper sacks and I imagine 2/3 will hit for profit.

The Broncos lead the NFL in sacks (51), while this putrid Raiders offensive line has allowed the second most sacks (46). I am going with 1U plays on both Nik Bonnito and Zach Allen to record sacks, who are each top-10 in QB pressures. These teams played a month ago, and each of these players recorded 1+ sacks in a game where Geno Smith was taken down 6 times. He’s been sacked 25 times over the past 4 games. The Raiders O-line is cooked.

These two teams played a close game in primetime four weeks ago, and the Broncos have only won three games by more than four points. I'm still going to lay the points as the Raiders have looked tapped out since that game, losing three straight to the Cowboys, Browns and Chargers by 14+ points. The Raiders have the worst rush offense in football, while the Broncos have the best pass defense, so there's a good shot the Raiders have less than 200 yards for the fourth time in seven games. Hopefully Denver doesn't decide to play side-to-side offensive football this time around and attacks a weak Raiders secondary to get ahead quickly and extend the lead in the second half.

I was just looking at our model's favorite props plays for Sunday -- which if you join the SportsLine Discord channel and then my sub-channel, I share all these charts -- and Denver's RJ Harvey is the second-favorite RB for an anytime TD with a 73% shot of scoring. Only Jonathan Taylor at 78% is higher, but he's priced -230. And if Harvey does score, that's great for me regarding the final week of the Fantasy regular season. Although I might tank/play scrubs to avoid what might be the best team in our league in the first round of the playoffs. Hello Tyrod Taylor at QB.

Harvey should get plenty of opportunities against a suspect Raiders run defense that hung in there last week but broke down in the second half. It's because the Raiders offense can't do many things right, and that should be the case this week against a real good Broncos pass rush. Denver should dominate time of possession, affording the chance for plenty of Harvey rush attempts. JK Dobbins had 18 rushes in the Broncos Week 10 win over Las Vegas, one of five RBs in the past five weeks to have 16-plus carries against them. I am OK taking this over at 14.5 and maybe even 15.5.

The Raiders have allowed the third fewest yards per rush in the league this year, but that hasn't stopped running backs from racking up scores as they've given up the third most RB rush TDs per game, and four RBs scored five total TDs over the last two games against this defense. It's a great matchup for Harvey as he continues his run as the lead back, which has not led to efficiency in yardage but did result in two scores last week. I think the odds should be -140 or shorter for him to add to his eight-TD total in this matchup.