There is no longer expected to be rain in this game, but sustained wins in the high 20s are going to make it very difficult on the deep passing game. While the Browns have allowed a 33-yard pass in seven straight games, Purdy hasn't hit a completion over 31 yards in three games since the season opener. With only one of Purdy's 131 pass attempts on the season getting over this number, and with the extreme wind in the forecast, this number may deserve to be in the 20s.

The weather could be dicey on Sunday in Cleveland and that might work to the Browns' advantage. Especially as that wasn't a smooth performance by Brock Purdy for Kyle Shanahan's offense on Monday night vs. the Panthers, tossing three picks in just his second game back to active duty. The prospect of Myles Garrett bearing down on Purdy him from the edge could further disrupt the Niners attack. Meanwhile, Shedeur Sanders seemed to pump more life into the Browns offense last week in Las Vegas than Dillon Gabriel had the previous month, and Cleveland's home form hasn't been too bad, beating the Packers and routing the Dolphins, and narrowly losing to the Bengals and Ravens. Play Browns

Christian McCaffrey has been absolutely dynamic as a receiver and while he’s struggled with rushing efficiency he is having an incredible season catching passes and is functioning as the teams top receiving option. He faces a formidable Browns defense with an elite pass rush and rush defense, but I expect C-Mac to be heavily featured and utilized to negate Cleveland’s pass rush. Taking a volume based approach but also like his yards.

I feel obligated to fade Sanders here. Heavy wind gusts are expected in Cleveland. Despite winning his first NFL start last week, Sanders finished the game with a QBR of 8.8. He was 11/20 for 209 yards, with a 66-yard screen pass accounting for a large portion. Robert Saleh’s defense showed some grit last week against Carolina, and if the Niners play with that same intensity, they will make things tough on Sanders in a windy environment. This is a low passing yards total, but it reminds me of Jets QB Justin Fields’ sub-150 line in his last start (he finished with 119). Sanders’ best chance to beat San Fran is to limit turnovers and rely on the defense. He might not break 100 yards.

Kittle has logged 6+ receptions in 3 straight games, and 4 receptions in 6/7 games this season. In Brock Purdy’s first start back from injury, he targeted Kittle 10 times. The Niners will have a tough test on the road against a stingy Browns defense, with heavy wind gusts expected. Purdy should look for Kittle in the short area passing game and hope he can create some YAC. I like Kittle to grab a 5th reception at plus money.

George Kittle has played only 6.5 games this season. Yet he has comparable red zone targets (nine) to tight ends that have played all season. He has caught all nine of his red zone targets this season for four touchdowns. Kittle has scored four touchdowns in three of the six games since he returned to the lineup in October. The Browns are a good defense, but they have allowed a 6.5% touchdown rate to tight ends. I like the price we are getting at +170 for Kittle to find the endzone again on Sunday.

Weather is likely going to be a factor in this game, with sustained winds in the 20s and a moderate chance of rain. That's crashed the total to the point where the home team shouldn't be getting more than 4 points. Yes, the 49ers have a superstar at running back, but Brock Purdy looked like a problem throwing the ball in good conditions Monday, and he'll be up against a tougher defense here and prone to making more mistakes. That could neutralize the mistakes the Browns will likely get from Shedeur Sanders, and this feels like a game that ends in the 16-13 range.

The 49ers put together a relatively easy win against the Panthers on Monday, but that doesn't mean the offense played well. Brock Purdy threw three awful first-half interceptions, and the offense continues to be overly reliant on Christian McCaffrey. With Purdy playing poorly, it's the type of offense that an elite Browns defense should be able to limit. Just one of Cleveland's last six opponents have scored three offensive TDs in a game, and that one featured a 6-yard TD drive after a turnover. Shedeur Sanders is certainly capable of giving the 49ers free points, but I'll count on Cleveland's defense to dictate the flow of this game and hold the 49ers to 20 or less.

The San Francisco 49ers will be playing at 10:00 AM (body clock) on a short week. The weather forecast looks wet and cold, which the home team is more accustomed to playing in. Cleveland's defense ranks among the league's most fearsome pass-rushing units. Myles Garrett leads the NFL in quarterback pressures, and the Browns' secondary features elite cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson Jr. The Browns rank 3rd in sack percentage (10.31%) and 3rd overall in defensive pressure, creating problems for any quarterback. This system from weeks 10 to 15 has achieved a success rate of just under 58% across a large sample, focusing on underdogs of 6.5 points or more with an over/under of 42 points or fewer.