Late decision here on the Buccaneers coming in large part due to the return of Bucky Irving taking some pressure off Baker Mayfield, as he has badly needed in recent games. Perception of Tampa Bay has turned, but its only losses this season are to playoff teams including consecutive road defeats while banged up. Arizona is playing much better under Jacoby Brissett, but it has lost and failed to cover his starts. Now the Cardinals have to go to the East Coast with a thrashed offensive line against a Bucs team getting healthier? Even if Mayfield leaves the game, Teddy Bridgewater is capable. Wait until kickoff to try and get -3 (-120 or better).

Both teams regularly reach the 20s in points, with the Cardinals falling short just once and the Bucs twice. Each side got welcome news on the injury front. Arizona welcomes back WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and RB Bam Knight. RB Bucky Knight returns for Tampa Bay, while QB Baker Mayfield defied the odds and recovered sufficiently from a shoulder injury. Both squads have .500 records on Over -- 7-4 for the visitors, 6-5 for the hosts.

Michael Carter is poised to split work again with Bam Knight, but it's Carter who had a 46 percent route share last week. Carter has drawn 10 targets in the past two games. Look for the Cardinals, facing a pass-funnel defense, to continue to go pass-heavy and for Jacoby Brissett to find Carter multiple times. The Bucs have given up an NFL-high 54.4 receiving yards per game to opposing backs.

DraftKings. I’m running back the under on Tez Johnson’s longest reception after cashing on it last Sunday night. The SNF blowout essentially allowed the Bucs to work Chris Godwin in slowly, but I do expect him to continue to cut into the route share for Bucs receivers, sans Emeka Egbuka. As is, Johnson is under this line in each of his last four games, with only one deep target in that span. Baker Mayfield is slated to play but with a “plan to protect him” - to me that reads as quick, short passes, and leaning on the run game with Bucky Irving back in the fold.

It's possible the Bucs will have Baker Mayfield for this game despite his shoulder injury, but he hadn't been playing well prior to last week so I'm not sure he'd give the offense a major boost if he were out there. That's especially true if the Cardinals start to get back injured defenders like Will Johnson. The Bucs defense has allowed 28+ points in three straight and now faces a QB in Jacoby Brissett who has been on fire throwing the ball. This is coming down off the 3, and I want to lock in my pick before it happens across the market, but if Mayfield news trends in a positive direction during the week it's possible 3s will remain available.