The Browns are 0-5 SU and ATS on the road this season. Cleveland’s dominant defense simply does not show up outside of its home stadium to the point that it gave up 27 to the Jets just a couple weeks ago. Shedeur Sanders may break out a couple plays with his legs, but he looked completely lost last week – and six days of practice isn’t suddenly going to make him competent against pressure. The Raiders are a terrible offensive team, but they at least have competent, veteran players at key positions. This might be a 9-3 game, but with the hook disappearing before kickoff, this is a hold-your-nose play on Las Vegas.

Jeanty’s struggles running the ball this season can largely be attributed to the Raiders awful offensive line. In recent weeks, Jeanty has been featured in the short area passing game, seeing 5+ targets in 3 straight games. He was lining up out wide last week against the Cowboys for quick screens. Jeanty faces a Browns defense that ranks #1 in defensive rush DVOA, so if he’s running into walls early I expect him to see some targets.

Las Vegas’ O-line is battered and QB Geno Smth owns up to more interceptions (baker’s dozen) than TD passes (actual dozen). Yet we will adhere to a rule of thumb: play against a rookie QB in his initial start — especially one who was awful in reserve a week earlier. Shedeur Sanders’ excuse is that he took no snaps in practice prior to the last game. Fine, but throwing him in to operate the 31st-rated offense — and whose makeshift O-line has the same sorry rank for pressure rate — is a big ask. Maxx Crosby and pass-rush sidekicks could get to know Sanders quite well in the pocket all day.

All the attention in this game is on Shedeur Sanders in his first career start, but there's a betting opportunity on the other QB in the game. Smith alternates between games over 220 yards and under 180 yards, and it's no surprise the latter tends to come against better defenses. The Browns have allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game at 184.2, and they should dominate the Raiders' offensive line and give Smith little time to go downfield. He's managed 6.7 yards per attempt this year, and a QB typically needs to be 7+ against the Browns to get above this number as teams typically don't attempt a high volume of passes. I'd take this down to 190.

This number is dropping and most books are dealing 15.5. That would be a smaller play for me. Either way, I’m not expecting volume or efficiency from rookie Shedeur Sanders, who is making his first career start — and on the road. The Browns can keep this close with their defense and running game. Look for Sanders, who went 4 of 16 last week in comeback mode, to complete 15 or fewer passes at Vegas.

Cleveland's QB situation is up in the air with Dillon Gabriel in the concussion protocol, but I like the Browns in this spot no matter who's under center. That's because the Raiders' offense could not get anything going against a bad Cowboys defense on Monday, with the offensive line in particular looking like a trainwreck. That doesn't bode well for a matchup with Myles Garrett, who has roughly one thousand sacks over the last four games. The Raiders' defense didn't cover itself in glory on Monday either, at one point watching George Pickens score instead of trying to stop him. This should be a low-scoring game where a field goal decides the winner, so if you see a 3.5 pop up, take it.