Were the teams at full strength, a points-laden game would loom. Injuries to both offenses could shave off some scoring. For Tampa Bay, WRs Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan will sit, along with OTs Kaleb McGary and All-Pro Tristan Wirfs. For Atlanta, WR Darnell Mooney is idle. Falcons QB Michael Penix's dynamism might be limited by the Bucs' blitz-minded defense. The pair of high-scoring matchups in 2024 is unlikely to be repeated.

We expect the Falcons to beast their sportsbook win total of 7.5 and possibly capture the division title. This is a swing game for both endeavors and we think Atlanta, which swept Tampa Bay last year, should have the edge in this one. The Falcons drafted some serious help on defense and should have one of the most dynamic offensive attacks in the NFL.

This one is at BetMGM and I'd probably be comfortable playing it up to 70.5, but I'm pleased with the number we are getting here at 66.5. My initial thought was to take the Rush Attempts (14.5) as all signs are pointing to the Bucs picking up where they left off on the rocket ship that was Bucky Irving late last year. However, if he gets to this 15 carry plateau, I find it hard to believe that he doesn't surpass 66.5 yards and I think if he can spring one long run he can do this on 11-12 carries. This should be a high scoring affair and I don't think the Falcons defense is good enough to defend the run game.

Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are more prolific on the road than at home. They averaged +3 more on the road last season and +4 more on the road vs home in '23. Mayfield went over this in 11 of 18 games, including the playoffs last season. Our model projects him for 2.3 passing touchdowns so we'd probably charge you -200. Atlanta's defense allowed nearly 25 points per game and their key to improving is their offense going to the next level with Michael Penix. If that happens then it ups our chances of a shootout which would also help our Mayfield over.

Bucky Irving is the clear-cut RB1 in Tampa. But Irving isn't the biggest RB in the world and has dealt with injuries, so we think there is a good chance the Bucs look to keep Irvin in the 15 carry per game range and let White carry the rock 6 or 7 times. Our projection for him is 6.5 carries for 29 yards so plenty of wiggle room for this over. Atlanta allowed opposing teams to average over 4.5 yards per carry. TB also had plenty of success with both Irving and White getting a good number of carries. Irving's line is 70.5 and TB averaged 146 rushing yards per game. I definitely see them getting 50 non-Irving rushing yards and half going to White.

Both of these teams look to be good on offense once again. Atlanta however, went in heavy on upgrading its defense in the offseason, specifically adding Jalon Walker and James Pearce to bolster an anemic pass rush. With Liam Coen departing for Jacksonville, O-lineman, Tristan Wirfs out to begin the season, along with WR Chris Godwin, I expect the Tampa Bay offense to slip versus where they were in 2024. Teams that finish Top 5 in scoring tend to regress the following season, especially in Week 1. Division home dogs are historically good plays in Week 1 and even better when the home team did not make the playoffs the season prior and the opponent did - which is the case here.