In the long run, proceed with caution before backing a 37-year-old QB with a bad back. In the short term, Matthew Stafford appears fit and pain-free after a preseason in which he spent more time in the training room than on the field. Rams coach Sean McVay is 6-2 SU in openers, including an OT loss at mighty Detroit in 2024. Houston will be hampered by the absence of injured RB Joe Mixon. The Texans can apply heat to passers, so here's trusting Stafford will stay upright and (reasonably) mobile, with help from emerging standout RB Kyren Williams.

Christian Kirk (hamstring) is out, so CJ Stroud figures to lean on Nico Collins a ton. Rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are playing in their first NFL games, on the road. Houston isn't likely to have much success running the ball with Nick Chubb. I would stay away if you only have a book with a 6.5 line.

The annual Matthew Stafford preseason mystery looks like another false alarm. Stafford (recent back issues) has been given the green light to begin the new campaign for Sean McVay, who has had good success in past openers in which he’s 6-2 straight-up and vs. the spread (including a bitter loss in OT in last September’s lid-lifter), and remember LA closed on a 7-1 spread uptick last season. As for the Texans, though they made the playoffs again for DeMeco Ryans, the performances seemed to plateau, with QB C.J. Stroud enduring a bit of a sophomore slump. Houston has had some injury issues, too, with key weapons such as RB Joe Mixon and WR Tank Dell already on the shelf. Play Texans

The Rams are expected to play a lot of zone coverage as they did in 2024, making it easier for Stroud to hit short and mid-range targets. The Rams don't have an established secondary either, which helps. There are big questions about how effective the Texans run game will be, not only because of their stable of imperfect running backs but also because of their offensive line. It might mean Stroud throws more short throws to make up for the run game. And if Houston trails, Stroud will have to throw a lot.

Although Rams QB Matthew Stafford is going to start the game and be ready to go in this one, it is never a good sign when coach Sean McVay has to speak in terms of the injury by saying 'we'll take it day by day'. The Texans have a Top 10 defense with the ability to get after the QB. That'll be the difference here and enough for them to get the win on the road.

DraftKings. This combined line actually is a slight downgrade from Kyren Williams’ 92.6 average scrimmage yards per game from last season. However, this a brutal matchup out of the gate, especially in Week 1 with zero preseason game reps. The Texans are bringing back the core of their defense that ranked third in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA metric against the run, and second against running backs in the passing game. Plus, there’s been some chatter around the Rams splitting their running back workload more judiciously this season, after investing draft capital at the position over the last two drafts. I’d bet this down to under 82.5 combined yards.

The -115 implies 53.5% and that is the best on our latest board. It is a TON, TON, TON of value over DraftKings' -165 or ESPN's -190! Our sims have Kyren Williams at the top of the list at 87%. Don't overthink this. He has 31 rushing + receiving touchdowns in his last 2 seasons (28 games). The Rams gave him a big contract showing the fully intend on keeping him as the primary workhorse RB. Ninety percent of rushing TDs are going to be by Kyren Williams who has accounted for 85% of this team's rushing TDs when he plays over his entire career.