New Orleans' last five games have resulted in 35, 25, 39, 34 and 35 points. Most of the blame falls on the team’s offense, which has been putrid. With the usual list of injured suspects sitting out, there's no reason to think it will find relief. The concern is Tampa Bay’s imposing offense and the need to win for a division title. Given a clear superiority in this matchup, the Buccaneers could - and should - lean on their rushing attack, shorten the game and coast home to preserve their players for a wild-card contest next weekend.

Big number, but Mike Evans has a $3 million bonus if he gets to five catches and 85 yards receiving in Week 18. Remember a couple of years ago where Tom Brady said to the coaches "don't you pull me" so he could get Rob Gronkowski his big bonus? I prefer the yards to catches for the obvious reason that Evans can top the yards on one play (although ME isn't really that fleet of foot these days to take a long TD to the house) and the Bucs have to play to win, so it's not like he will be pulled early.

Over the past three games, the Bucs are averaging 7.0 yards per play. With a division title at stake, they will be highly motivated throughout. They're facing a Saints' team that has scored 10 total points in the past two games. Tampa Bay put up 51 points in the first meeting while intercepting Spencer Rattler twice. Look for the Bucs to win by at least two touchdowns.

The Saints are cooked and the defense has fallen apart. Mike Evans needs 85 yards for another 1000-yard season and Baker Mayfield is set on getting him that and the Saints put up no resistance. Evans struggles vs them over the years but Marshawn Lattimore was dealt away and Saints can't cover. Evans will end up over 100 yards before he's pulled from this one.

The Buccaneers are a win away from locking up the division, and the offense has been cooking with six straight 400-yard performances (including two 500+ yard games). The Saints' last gasp appeared to be the near upset of Washington as they've crumbled the last two weeks, including at home to a bad Raiders team. This should be a game where the Bucs have the foot on the gas in get outside this number quickly, and even if Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave are cleared to play I don't see the Saints fighting to cover here. I'd make this line Bucs -13 even in a normal week without motivation factors at play.

Another blowout spot where I am okay shortening the game. The Saints are pathetic at this point and lacking any offensive threats. The Bucs havent covered a full game vs them in 6 straight at home, but scored 51 on them in the meeting at NO. Bucs have scored at least 10 in first half of 6 straight and unless Baker is throwing pick sixes, Saints aint scoring much here. Saints have trailed by 38 at the half during their 3-game losing streak. Cannot play from behind. They have produced 2 first half TDs over their 5 games,

The Bucs need a win to capture the NFCS, they can't take any chances and ran up 51 on the Saints earlier this season before the NO D had totally cratered. These 2 teams have played 10 division games this season and all have produced at least 45 points. Combine 9-1 Over. Bucs games avg 62.4 points in the NFCS and Saints avg 53.4. NFC South games are generally bonkers. I don't think Todd Bowles pulls starters til 30 points and The Rizzler, an interim coach trying to keep his job, will be chasing points through garbage time. Saints have covered 6 straight at TB so maybe they keep it relatively close and make Bucs push til the end.