When you have two teams playing out the string, I need a reason to not fade the road club. And I don't have one here -- especially as the Titans are sans leading rusher Tony Pollard (and a couple of O-Linemen), who also is a decent factor in the passing game. The Jaguars are 6-3 ATS in their past nine games.

Over the past two games, Chig Okonkwo has drawn a 31 percent target share from Mason Rudolph. Okonkwo is a totally different player with Rudolph at quarterback instead of Will Levis. Capable tight ends like Okonkwo have had huge days against Jacksonville throughout the year.

Tony Pollard has gained nearly five times as much rushing yardage as Tennessee's next most productive RB. In a matchup of long-eliminated teams from the playoffs, that Pollard will sit out with an illness is significant. He has led his team in ground yards in all but one game. The Titans have been held in the teens during regulation for 11 of their 16 games. Jacksonville does not win much straight-up but has covered in six of the past nine games. This is Mac Jones' seventh start since stepping in for Trevor Lawrence and is growing accustomed to the gig.

Calvin Ridley will play his old Jaguars team again, which bodes well for his production. The Titans & Jags met three weeks ago, and Ridley had 7 receptions on 12 targets for 59 yards. Although that mark falls under this current receiving yards line, if Ridley gets 10+ targets again he is likely to clear it. The Jaguars allow the most passing yards per game in the NFL, and Ridley has logged a 20+ yard catch in 10 consecutive games.

Jaguars will have the ability to making things difficult for the Titans because of their ability to run the ball and pressure the QB. Without Will Levis playing in this game, Mason Rudolph's statuesque nature in the pocket will prove to be a bit of an issue for the Titans offense. Expect the Jags to slow down the run game and make Rudolph have to beat them consistently through the air.

I upgrade the Titans with veteran backup QB Mason Rudolph under center. Despite an abysmal 3-12 SU & 2-13 ATS record this season, Tennessee’s defense has actually been solid. They should be able to thwart Jags QB Mac Jones, who has thrown 7 interceptions in his 6 starts this season. Although Titans RB Tony Pollard will not play, shifty RB2 Tyjae Spears filled in nicely last week, scoring twice and showing off his dual-threat capabilities. Even on the road, I’m not sure the Titans should be underdogs against the Mac Jones-led Jaguars.

Mason Rudolph has thrown for two passing touchdowns in the last two weeks against the Colts and Bengals. Now Rudolph faces the pass funnel Jaguars defense. This is an excellent matchup for Rudolph to have another multi-touchdown day. What's even better is the price at +165. I projected this to be around +130 so I love taking advantage of this price and plus odds to back Rudolph to have another multi-touchdown passing performance.

Calvin Ridley has surpassed this longest reception line in all but two games since De'Andre Hopkins was traded to the Chiefs. Ridley also has a quarterback upgrade in Mason Rudolph, as we saw in his performance last week. He had 78 receiving yards with a long reception of 38 yards and a touchdown last Sunday. Another revenge game against this pass funnel Jaguars defense that allows the most deep receiving yards per game. In Ridley's matchup against the Jaguars a few weeks ago, he had a long reception of 30 yards.